The latest surge

[frogcycle]

[Smith_3]

1. What I wonder is if there is a rising or a falling tendency.

If you take the daily averages, monthwise, and fit them with a linear function you get a small incline. if you include a quadratic term you
get a small downward curvature. but the relative error on the curvature is larger than 100%, so it doesn't necessary mean anything.

I wonder if someone could come up with a differential equation to describe this. It should include terms for war fatigue and increasing discontent of the natives, enemy strenghts etc.