Mississippi US Senate Race: Unique factors shaping race

[L. Coyote]

Senate: Unique factors shaping race
The Clarion-Ledger • April 6, 2008
http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080406/OPINION01/804060323/1007

.....

On Nov. 4, Mississippi voters will choose between interim U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Tupelo, and former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in a special election made necessary by the December resignation of former U.S. Sen. Trent Lott.

.... the special election will fill Lott's unexpired term. Wicker, the veteran Republican 1st District congressman, was appointed to serve as interim senator until the special election by Republican Gov. Haley Barbour, who set the special election to coincide with the Nov. 4 general election.

With Mississippi voting Democratic in a presidential election only once since 1964, that decision by Barbour not only seemed a prudent one based on the expenses of a special election but sound political strategy .... But the emergence of Barack Obama as an African-American Democratic candidate with a legitimate chance at both his party's nomination and at winning the 2008 general election may backfire on Barbour.

Obama has attracted record Democratic turnouts across the Deep South and has not only energized African-American voters, but young voters and first-time voters as well. If he is the Democratic presidential nominee, Wiseman aptly notes that it could have a tremendous impact on the state's special Senate election. .....

[jody]

1. Exit polls from MS are interesting. For HC, White Dem 70%, White Ind. 55%, Rep. 76%.

For BO, Black Dem 91%. See Page 4, EXIT POLLS: Mississippi

Black voters made up 46% of the poll sample but only 37% of MS population.

It’s entirely possible that if BO is the Dem candidate, it will be a victory for Wicker.

[L. Coyote]

2. Just the primaries this year have shifted who the electorate will be in Nov.

irrespective of whop the candidate is, we already have a new electorate.
It will continue to grow too, perhaps vastly like never before.

In 1968, the voter surge was suppressed by assassinations, we can assume.
Imagine if the electorate had shifted with many, many millions more then.

[jody]

3. Good point. Here on DU, many HC supporters say they will not vote for BO, some even threatening to

vote for McCain.

Many BO supporters say they will not vote for HC in the GE.

If MS voters are like those groups and vote IAW their threats, IMO neither BO nor HC can carry MS.

[L. Coyote]

4. Groups? That does not sound right. Maybe the few are not who they say they are.

I don't know anyone who thinks like that. That's beyond sane, it's McInsane.

There are no such groups, I'm sure, but there may be a lot of spin and drumbeating.

FACT: There are millions and millions of newly registered Dems without all the door-to-door work the Rs have so aggressively litigated against recently. All the politicization of DoJ to suppress voting has been for naught now! And the march goes on, so I hope noone withdraws from the race. In Oregon, registration is taking off.

[jody]

5. I guess you have been reading different posts on DU than I. Several national polls show

supporters would vote for McCain if their candidate, BO or HC, is not chosen by the Democratic Party to represent us in the GE.

Have a nice day. :hi:

[L. Coyote]

6. I favor investigating polls, and making false political polls a crime.

False poll result reporting is also a way to manipulate the electorate.