EEK! Statewide poll shows Pennsylvanians leaning Repug for 2008 POTUS race

[gauguin57]

The story for which this is a promo will be published in Lancaster County, Pa's afternoon paper (the Lancaster New Era) today... we have our work cut out for us!

http://local.lancasteronline.com/4/201159

Surprise! Pa. prefers Giuliani & McCain

New poll by F&M discovers Democrat-friendly state favors GOP presidential candidates. But ‘Teflon Ed' still popular as ever.

LANCASTER COUNTY, Pa. --
... Pennsylvania voters would back Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain over Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, a new statewide poll out of Franklin & Marshall College finds.

The survey results are significant because they show the two Republicans leading in a Democratic-leaning state that no GOP presidential candidate has won since 1988, when President Bush's father beat Michael Dukakis.

They are also surprising given the Democrats' election- day victories here less than four months ago, when voters re-elected Gov. Ed Rendell by a wide margin, toppled the GOP majority in the state House and ousted Rick Santorum, who had been the U.S. Senate's third-highest ranking Republican.

F&M's Keystone Poll found Giuliani the most popular of the four candidates, beating Clinton by 16 points, 53 percent to 37 percent, and Obama by 20 points, 52 percent to 32 percent. Separately, the poll showed McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona and a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, beating Clinton by 4 points, 45 percent to 41 percent, and Obama by 16 points, 43 percent to 37 percent. ....

[lupita]

1. It's too early to worry about it n/t

[skipos]

2. PA isn't trending Repub though

Pennsylvania:
'88: Bush (50.70 - 48.39) = + 5.41% Democratic
'92: Clinton (45.15 - 36.13) = + 3.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.17 - 39.97) = + 0.67% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.60 - 46.43) = + 3.66% Democratic
'04: Kerry (50.92 - 48.42) = + 4.96% Democratic

If our candidate loses PA, chances are they are going to lose a lot more typically blue states.

[Clark2008]

3. I have been saying for MONTHS that if HRC is our nominee,

we'll lose Pennsylvania.

I hate it when I'm right.

[AndyTiedye]

5. If HRC is Our Nominee, We Lose. Period. Nobody Can Win With Those Negatives

This is undoubtably the reason that Rupert Murdoch is supporting her for the Dem nomination.

[Bandit]

6. There was no Democrat that won their approval

What does that tell you about our current batch of Democrats? This from a state where Republicans haven't won the presidency for quite some time. You think they are just not paying attention to all the wonderful deeds the Democrats are doing? :shrug: This is one dead canary IMO

[AndyTiedye]

4. This Poll is Really Terrible News. Our Frontrunners Losing this Blue State by a Huge Landslide.

I think a lot of Dems are really in denial about Guiliani.
We will have a very difficult time beating him, and neither Hillary Clinton nor Barak Obama have a chance against him.

I would have thought they would at least be beating McCain after all of his hawkish blathering,
but it looks like he would be very hard to beat too.

WE NEED GORE! None of the others can win.

[krispos42]

7. I doubt the gun issue is helping

Both HRC and Obabma are anti-gun, and PA is a rural hunting state.

Democrats keep letting their national party platform being written from the viewpoint of urbanites and it's still causing a disconnect with people.

Dems have to stop pissing on the electric fence, at least nationally. Dean was right. Let the states decide.

[SaveElmer]

8. Chill out...

Guiliani for most people is still the fantasy cooked up by the media after 911, and hasn't had ANY negative press yet...his negatives will climb steadily once he is the perceived frontrunner..

McCain's goose is already cooked...

[mmonk]

9. Good to know we're keeping that impeachment stuff off the table

because we need to win in 08.:sarcasm:

[justiceischeap]

10. Makes me wonder where they polled

Because the middle of PA is totally red but both "coasts" are blue, which is where the highest concentraction of people are. If they only polled the middle of the state, then the results make total sense.

Hell, Lancaster is only 70 miles from Philly but it's still red, red, red.

[Mandate My Ass]

11. Yup, that's Rick Santorum country

I'm not worried and I live here.

[justiceischeap]

12. I grew up and lived in Lancaster County until 3 years ago

I'm guessing this poll is skewed.

[Dawgs]

13. Didn't Obama beat Giuliani in a zogby poll,

just the other day?

[WI_DEM]

14. Actually at this early stage most polls (not all) have McCain and especially

Giuliani beating the top dems in match ups. But it's way too early.

[pat_k]

15. In 1987 the Democratic leadership refused to impeach. . .

. . .and gave us Poppy Bush. (They were so sure they'd win too, as long as they didn't "overreach.")

They face the same choice.

Impeachment or Impotence.

Duty or Complicity.

Courage or Cowardice

If they once again chose impotence, complicity, and cowardice, we probably will see a Republican take the WH (and the strategerists will once again be stunned, mystified, wondering what the heck went wrong).