|
You and just about everyone else who suggests this tend to say something like this in your argument for a Gore fall entry:
"...fall at the very earliest. By that time the candidates will have probably ravaged each other thereby knocking at least one or more of them out. People will be pretty sick of some of the candidates and someone new and fresh will be needed to reinvigorate the POTUS race."
First, as long as I can remember at least, the Presidential nomination race, both for Democrats and Repubs, has NEVER WORKED LIKE THIS. There has never in living memory been a situation in which one party's nominees seem so bloodied and inadequate that the populace demands a new choice, or at least embraces a new choice in all his newness and wonderfulness. (And Al Gore is wonderful, don't get me wrong.)
Secondly, ARE the Democratic candidates this time, 2008, somehow so much more awful than in say, 2004, 2000, 1992, 1988, etc. etc.? Are they somehow so record-breakingly inadaquate that your heretofore unseen scenario can play out this time? No, they're not. Clinton, Obama, Edwards; Richardson, Kucinich, even Biden. They're a pretty standard-issue field, with standard-issue strengths and weaknesses.
So why do you Fall guys always need to imagine that your unique scenario will come into play this time? Because even you guys recongnize the downsides (I would say almost fatal downsides) to normal late entry, especially this year, with all the primaries getting pushed so early. You know, as I do, that the nominees WILL BE EVIDENT BY THIS TIME NEXT YEAR. For the nomination, the bulk of the race IS in 2007. And every week Gore is not in it is another week that more big donors commit to candidates actually running, that more campaign professionals sign on with one campaign or another, that more grass-roots volunteers sign up, that more politicos give endorsements and pull whatever strings they may have, etc. etc.
I hope Gore runs. I can't honestly say today whether he will or not. But let me make this perfectly clear: if Gore runs, he will announce SOON. I'll go out on a limb and say sometime in the month of March. And I feel far more comforatble in making a solid prediction that, if Gore doesn't enter pretty soon, by the time we get into the summer even, reporters will stop asking Gore the eternal question. He will have made it clear by then - anyone not in it by then is just not in it, and is not gonna win it.
|