$200 barrel oil will be here by:

[JFN1]

We hit $110 a barrel today...

[ThomWV]

1. 2015 maybe. You'll see $75 oil sooner.

No time soon, that's for sure.

[JFN1]

2. Why do you think so?

Is demand going to dry up because of the shitty economy?

[El Pinko]

7. Demand has already dropped.

And production has yet to fall, and the global economy is predicted to slow considerably over th next couple of years.

Speculation has moved from real estate to commodities.

Gold will probably hit about $1200/oz and then crash too.

[Extend a Hand]

3. only if there is a natural disaster or big "geopolitical event"

will we see it this year.

otherwise I think the price will level out while our economy tanks.

[Initech]

8. Or we bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb Iran.

[Mojorabbit]

4. If the dollar keeps tanking

and if we have a bad hurricane season, I think we might see it this year.

[MsLeopard]

5. Dec 1st

After the election, before the Bush Crime Family leaves office. If they do.

[El Pinko]

6. Around 2015.

I don't doubt peak oil/plateau oil, but from everything I've seen they are several years off. What's happening now is a flight of capital from shaky US investments to commodities that are seen as a hedge against inflation, NOT a demand/supply problem. The higher the price goes, the more demand is suppressed (already almost 2% drop in gasoline consumption in the US in the last year), the more economies slow, dropping demand further, the more likely a glut and price drops become.

I know that people here have a lot of faith invested in peak oil, but it doesn't take huge drops in demand to create a glut.

The long-term trend for oil will definitely be up, but the prices today are DEFINITELY premature and speculative.


$70/bl oil would make sense right now - $110 is the lemming effect.

[Hawkowl]

9. ITS NOT SUPPLY AND DEMAND

It is two main things: 1) the falling U.S. dollar. Who's the number one supplier of oil to the US? Canada. For the first time in decades the Canadian dollar is worth more than the US dollar. 2) Speculation in the futures market is creating a bubble. Just like the tech stock bubble and the real estate bubble. You can by oil futures for only 4%--FOUR PERCENT-- of the entire value of the contract. So you can control $4 million dollars worth of crude for $4,000!

Two things will bring oil crashing down. First when the Fed finally tightens the money supply and signals it by raising the interest rate. This will halt the fall of the dollar and oil will start falling rapidly. In fact once the Fed even starts mumbling about raising rates oil will start falling.

Second, if the oil futures exchange raised the percentage to control a contract from 4 to say a reasonable 33%, this would knock a lot of speculators out of the bid up oil racket.

So, whenever you start hearing about supply and demand, be suspicious. It is just the Man trying to keep you down and steal your wallet.