Don't Panic! The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Markets

[CorpGovActivist]

As I sit here bleary-eyed, after napping, watching the overseas markets reports coming in, I am reminded of the late, great http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_adams">Douglas Adams' take on Earth-bound economics:

*******************************************************
"Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun.

Orbiting this at a distance of roughly ninety-eight million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue-green planet whose ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.

This planet has - or rather had - a problem, which was this: most of the people living on it were unhappy for pretty much of the time. Many solutions were suggested for this problem, but most of these were largely concerned with the movements of small green pieces of paper, which is odd because on the whole it wasn't the small green pieces of paper that were unhappy.

And so the problem remained; lots of the people were mean, and most of them were miserable, even the ones with digital watches."
*******************************************************

If only these gyrations were "mostly harmless," that would be one thing; but they'll more likely continue to have painful and displacing consequences for many at home and abroad.

Best to all, and don't forget your towel!

- Dave

P.S. On edit, some will not get the towel reference. A http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A138232">towel is "about the most massively useful thing an interstellar hitch hiker can have." http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A6025411">Beginner's Guide to Towel Combat illustrates just one of a good towel's many (and ever-expanding) uses. As the FTSE melts before our very eyes, it is fitting that we tune in to the very serious BBC entries on the subjects outlined in this postscript. Who knew those wacky folks at the BBC had an HHG wiki?!?

[emilyg]

1. Who's panicking?

My teeth always chatter.

[CorpGovActivist]

3. A Good Towel - Placed Gently, yet Firmly - between Your Choppers...

... should do the trick!

; )

- Dave

[Extend a Hand]

2. futures are looking mighty ugly

INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME DJIA INDEX 11,457.00 -649.00 12,130.00 12,140.00 11,456.00 03:15
S&P 500 1,255.30 -70.00 1,327.50 1,331.60 1,255.30 03:14
NASDAQ 100 1,744.50 -105.00 1,850.75 1,857.75 1,744.50 03:14

European markets are all in the red too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

[CorpGovActivist]

4. In a Pinch, a Towel Makes a Fine Blindfold...

... if you don't want to look at the reports.

If you do, I tend to favor Bloomberg's coverage.

- Dave

[MercutioATC]

5. I prefer my Peril-Sensitive Sunglasses

Good enough for Zaphod, good enough for me.

[CorpGovActivist]

6. Only a Double Pair Will Do n/t

[BB1]

9. I'm hunching and crouching

and flapping my arms wildly. Think that will help?

[CorpGovActivist]

10. The Trick to Flying Is to Throw Yourself at the Ground...

... and miss.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

61. My TiVo Has Peril-Sensitives: Switched from Bloomberg to The Waltons...

... set during the Depression.

:rofl:

Ah, simpler times.

- Dave

[radfringe]

48. personally prefer this approach...

[CorpGovActivist]

49. Leave Your Alarm Clock out of This...

... ya rube!

:hug:

- Dave

[radfringe]

52. nobody here but us chickens...

[CorpGovActivist]

56. "It's a cow farm, there'r gonna be cows!"

[lapfog_1]

18. 600+ loss on the Dow by mid morning...

with a possible bigger loss by mid afternoon, followed by an uptick off the bottom before the close of the session.

(my prediction).

[CorpGovActivist]

21. Dead Cat Bounce? Which Sectors Will Be Oversold?

The collateral damage is going to present some incredible opportunities.

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

23. Tech is getting whamied on the German markets currently

down anywhere from 6% to 12% to 20% (Oracle).

Microsoft down 5%

Sun, yahoo down 12%

[CorpGovActivist]

27. Acquisition-Minded Companies with Healthy Balance Sheets...

... and low debt ratios are licking their chops.

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

36. Time to break out the Pan Galactic Gargleblasters???

The Frankfurt market has weathered the first round of panic selling, with most US stocks now just off 3% to 5% (which is still a major sell off, but much better than 30 minutes after the market opened).

Oracle, Yahoo, and Sun still show double digit sell offs, however, Yahoo just announced a major layoff and "refocus" on core business solutions (whatever the hell that might mean).

Still, currently Frankfurt is doing better, which should slow panic selling in London and NY later today.

NY should just never have a holiday as one of the reasons given for the panic selling in Asian markets was that it was unknown what the US markets would do, and so investors considered the worst and acted on it (there being no real data). A plausible theory, but then again, suppose the NYSE had followed the Asian lead yesterday... so, it might have been a good thing to have the holiday.

Anyway, London is up next...

[CorpGovActivist]

38. I'll Meet You at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe...

... shaken and stirred.

During the Asian currency crisis in 97/98, I was working for the head of FMRCo., the principal unit of Fidelity. He was one of the first to catch on to http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fidelity+fair+value+pricing">fair value pricing across time zones/exchanges.

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

43. Unfortunately, I'm spending a year dead for tax purposes!

however, if you get to eat at the Restaurant, might I suggest that you meet the meat? I'm sure that an intelligent cow will come to your table to discuss the various choice cuts that one might procure from her body.

I'll be the guy with the really cool looking completely black spaceship.

It's really hard to get the wave going around the world. (either positive or negative) Still, when it comes close to happening, it's fun to watch. And there are plenty of negatives that affect everyone in the world, all sourced from the US...

subprime mortgage crises - Europe and Asia (as well as the Americas) investors all got aboard this SS Titanic.
job growth in the US - we have not replaced the jobs we outsourced and offshored to the rest of the world.
reduced consumer spending - we don't have a middle class anymore, so it's hard to have disposable income to dump into tech gadgets
The second internet bubble is here - because of the housing crises, this doesn't get attention it should, but web 2.0 companies are simple waaaaay overvalued again, things like facebook, myspace, etc. and the mother of them all, google.
Defense spending is takes too much bite from federal dollars. We had a "peace dividend" in the Clinton years, erased now by huge Pentagon spending spree... not including the Iraq war.
Energy cost crises... when oil goes from under $30 to over $95 per barrel, you gotta expect a recession.

[CorpGovActivist]

44. That's Just "Highly Improbable"

But I'll take your rec on the meat.

Every single factor you list is spot-on-the-money accurate.

It's not fun or entertaining to watch the Slinky springs all pop out of the rigged global economy and hurry down the stairs at once, but it's hypnotic.

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

50. So... all you really need is a good source of brownian motion

like, say, a nice warm cup of tea!

Or, as a surface to air missile, transformed by a highly improbable event into a vase of petunias, thought as it streaked down to the surface of the planet... "oh no, not again!"

[CorpGovActivist]

58. Poor Whale!

[Ghost Dog]

72. Did somebody mention Tea? Any chance of a cup before

Aaaaaaaaaargh

[CorpGovActivist]

74. !!!

[lapfog_1]

45. Sounds sort of uncapitalistic...

Following the market wave around the glode...

=====================================================
This strategy worked at some funds--including $251 million Guinness Flight China & Hong Kong, which jumped 15% from Tuesday to Wednesday reflecting the Hang Seng's 19% advance, and $45 million U.S. Global Investors China Region Opportunity (up 8%). But investors who tried the tactic by pouring an estimated $20 million to $30 million into Fidelity's $157 million Hong Kong & China fund were stymied. That's because the $400 billion Boston fund giant invoked an obscure practice called fair-value pricing. This policy allows Fidelity officials to price a portfolio's securities at what they deem to be a reasonable level when they believe using market prices would be unfair. In this case, Fidelity officials argued that Hong Kong's closing prices on Tuesday, Oct. 28 understated the fund's value, since it was clear that a surging U.S. market would send the Hang Seng upward. So Fidelity priced the fund's securities based on overnight trading of Hong Kong securities in the U.S. and abroad. As a result, on Tuesday the Fidelity fund showed a 0.2% gain rather than the steep loss that bottom-fishing investors were counting on. And since the fund's Tuesday price reflected much of Hong Kong's anticipated Wednesday rally, the fund showed a mere 2% gain on Wednesday, frustrating the bargain hunters.
=====================================================

Funny, I thought these guys were all about "let the markets take care of in-balances"

[CorpGovActivist]

46. He Was a Sharp Cookie...

... and every fund manager (including Magellan's team) reported to him; his edict on this made a lot of Fidelity customers that much more loyal. He's no longer there.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

47. Dupe

[CorpGovActivist]

51. I Have to Go Talk to a Fer-en Press Contact...

... back in a while. Keep the HHG tie-ins going! I'll rejoin when I get back.

:toast:

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

53. In a world populated by the offspring of

middle level marketing managers and telephone sanitizers, it would appear that the "market crash" has been arrested at the European border!

At this point, I don't expect there to be more than a small blip downward (2 percent) on the US markets.

I think we need to wait and see how the US markets open... and if the afternoon in Europe brings a change of heart.

Currently, most European markets are showing small (very small) GAINS.

[CorpGovActivist]

59. Those Brits and Their Tea Towels!

[CorpGovActivist]

40. UK Report on Bloomberg: FSA's Sant Testifies before Treasury Select Committee

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=fsa+sants&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn">On the hotseat at Westminster.

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

7. I understand that a couple pints of beer come in handy

not to mention some bar nuts... you'll need the salt and thank me later.

Now if only we could skip the Vogon poetry reading...

[CorpGovActivist]

8. Painful. Please see edited OP. n/t

[CorpGovActivist]

11. We Used to Procrastinate in College to This Series...

... acted out, quite hilariously.

; )

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

12. US stocks traded in Frankfurt are being plastered again

tech stocks like Applied Materials, Apple, Cisco, etc are down 10 percent or more...

average looks to be 6 to 7 percent right now.

[CorpGovActivist]

14. Smoke 'Em If You Got 'Em...

... and watch the BushCo. brain trust "instill confidence" in the markets.

- Dave

P.S. I have a friendly wager on which resigned member of the BushCo. economic team stabs him in the back hardest on the news shows tomorrow/today/whatever it is. I call Lindsey.

[lapfog_1]

16. Holy crap

Currently, both Sun Microsystems and Oracle are down 20% on the Frankfurt market.

Looks like "Don't Panic" is not the operative phrase of the day.

[CorpGovActivist]

17. "On Sale"

[lapfog_1]

20. Sun Micro just did a snap back

so it's only down 12% now.
Yahoo has joined it.
Oracle still down 20%

The market ticker I'm watching doesn't show google, possibly because of the exchange that trades it?

[CorpGovActivist]

24. The Annual Report (10-K) Should List Exchanges Where Traded LINK

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?type=10-k&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&action=getcompany&CIK=0001288776

- Dave

[hfojvt]

13. "McDonald's is gone. There is no longer any such thing as a McDonald's hamburger."

"He passed out. When he came around a second later he found he was sobbing for his mother."

"This is obviously some strange usage of the word safe that I wasn't previously aware of."

[CorpGovActivist]

15. LOL...

... very appropriate usage in today's McMarket Meltdown.

I'm gonna hafta pull down my threadbare copy now.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

19. "It's a bypass. You've got to build bypasses."

...

"But the plans were on display ..."

"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."

"That's the display department."

"With a flashlight."

"Ah, well, the lights had probably gone."

"So had the stairs."

There's no use complaining about this market crash.

; )

- Dave

[lapfog_1]

26. That's right.

The plans for this market crash have been on file for well over a year at the "Masters of the Universe" planning department currently located in the sub sub basement of the Halliburton hdqrts building in the Cayman Islands (right underneath the PO Box). Really, anyone could have gone and complained! No use complaining now!

I see large yellow box like objects in the sky.

[CorpGovActivist]

28. Point D.

Meet you there!

; )

- Dave

[hfojvt]

37. they are hanging in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't

I am liking this OP. I think the IP must be the least benightedly unintelligent carbon-based life form it has been my profound lack of pleasure to be unable to avoid meeting.

[CorpGovActivist]

39. "I never could get the hang of Thursdays."

P.S. What's an IP?

[hfojvt]

41. my limited understanding, without having a babelfish handy

the IP is the person who posts the OP, or the initial poster of the original post.

[CorpGovActivist]

42. "It startled him even more when just after he was awarded the Galactic Institute's Prize for Extreme

Cleverness he got lynched by a rampaging mob of respectable physicists who had finally realized that the one thing they really couldn't stand was a smart-ass."

:rofl:

- Dave

[Ghost Dog]

73. Does that explain all that there IP OP music

emanating recently from this solar system, then?

[Tatiana]

22. Too late. I saw Cramer on Hardball.

(Ken) "Lay" is no longer a potato chip, "energy" ain't just MC-squared and "bear" isn't simply something my friend Will has been trying to find for over 10 years.

I'm in full-blown panic mode.

[CorpGovActivist]

25. Your Friend Will...

:rofl:

I might be able to fix him up.

- Dave

[Tatiana]

29. Don't bother. Been there done, done that.

He is hopeless. At this rate, the international markets are shaping up to be his best bet.

[CorpGovActivist]

30. Mail-Order Bear?

:rofl:

Sorry, sorry.

; )

- Dave

[Tatiana]

32. Hey, there are some real Italian studs out there!

And I've been impressed by some of the French men I've met.

Let this be a lesson - if you find a good one, keep him because good ones are hard to come by. Especially in these times.

[CorpGovActivist]

33. Nearly 14 Years, and Counting...

... preaching to the choir!

:hug:

- Dave

[Tatiana]

34. Count yourself lucky!

:pals:

These are perilous times and we all need someone who we can share the misery with... errr, depend on!

(14 years... DAMN. Congrats!)

[CorpGovActivist]

35. He's a City Boy...

... I know how to grow my own crops, and have kinfolk with cellars full of food, open to good farmhands!

; )

He'll learn.

:rofl:

The economy will be OK, and I sure do count my blessings with him every day.

Where are you located?

:pals:

- Dave

[Tatiana]

66. LMAO!

"He'll learn." :rofl:

Hey, leave us city folk (Chicago) ALONE! We're skilled at doing other things like hailing a taxi and crossing the turnstyle to get to the subway.

I am, however, seriously considering learning how to can my own fruit.

[CorpGovActivist]

69. Ah, but I Can Jaywalk with the Best of 'Em in Harvard Square...

... and taxi drivers fear to play chicken with me!

:rofl:

He's strong and sturdy, and he'll learn quickly, I'm sure.

Steep learning curve, but he'll master it!

Canning is hot work.

Blech!

- Dave

[Ghost Dog]

75. Seen and heard this Cramer the other day at this link:

"ITS ALL ABOUT THE COMMISSION”

(We used to say) “The commissions on structured products are so huge let's JAM IT.” (note “jam it” means foist it on the customer) It's all about the 'commish'. The commission on structured product is GIGANTIC. I could make a fortune 'JAMMING THAT CRUMMY PAPER' but I had a degree of conscience---what a shocker!--We used to regulate people but they decided during the Reagan revolution that that was bad. So we don't regulate anyone anymore. But listen the commission in structured product is so gigantic. (pause) First of all the customer has no idea what the product really is because it is invented. Second, you assume the customer is really stupid; like we used to say about the German bankers, 'The German banks are just Bozos. Throw them anything.' Or the Australians 'M O R O N S' Or the Florida Fund (ha ha ) “They're so stupid let's give them Triple B (junk grade) Then we'd just laugh and laugh at the customers and Jam them with the commission...That's what happened; that's what happened....Remember, this is about commissions, about how much money you can make by jamming stupid customers. I've seen it all my life; you jam stupid customers.”

Source for text: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article19126.htm

[CorpGovActivist]

31. Thank Goodness! Davos Arrives Just in Time!!!

http://www.weforum.org/en/events/AnnualMeeting2008/index.htm">All the smart post Bretton Woods types can sit around and come up with the solution. We're saved.

- Dave

[Buttercup McToots]

54. Got my helmet on David...

Tis gonna be bumpy...

[CorpGovActivist]

57. Whee!

Faster, faster! - cried Little Georgie.

; )

- Dave

[Voltaire99]

55. I love the smell of melting capitalism in the morning.

Smells like. . . .victory!

[CorpGovActivist]

60. If We Pick the Candidate with an Actual Economic Plan with Specifics...

... you bet!

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

62. Hooray! Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaking to US Chamber of Commerce Now

All will be well. :sarcasm:

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

63. And, They're off! n/t

[Blackhatjack]

64. Are the rate cuts by the Fed TOO LATE to do much good???

These rate cuts could have been factored in over a period of months by the FED instead of being dropped out of the sky with a thud.

Isn't it too late given the overseas markets drops last night?

[CorpGovActivist]

65. Sure Sent an Alarmed Signal! Bernanke Is a Dunce, and President Edwards ...

... should replace him ASAP.

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

67. I think Bernanke is the 'patsy' who had this disaster pawned off on him by Greenspan...

Alan Greenspan stepped down for a reason... he saw this coming, and Bernanke was handy and willing to take this on.

[CorpGovActivist]

70. Alan Wanted to Woo Andrea...

... with more sweet nothings about his irrational exuberance.

; )

- Dave

[radfringe]

68. out of session rate cut and a big one too

paulson giving press conference at 8 am, before markets open... markets drop 400 and change at the open....

me thinks things are worse than we have been led to believe

the only thing missing that would make this a "perfect crash" would be for smirk-boy to get in front of the cameras, open his piehole and tell us not to worry everything is just fine and dandy...

[mdmc]

71. kick

so I can find it later