"Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show" ...LINK

[Blackhatjack]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/19/obama-faces-white-resista_n_82300.html

Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show

Thomas B. Edsall
The Huffington Post

January 19, 2008 11:53 AM

"If, as a number of Democratic strategists argue, the party were to write off the states of the deep South and limit efforts in the region to Florida and perhaps some states on the periphery such as Arkansas and Tennessee, Obama's apparent difficulties with white Democrats -- ranging from slight to very substantial -- would not be a significant factor in the general election. Instead, his strength with independent whites outside the South could prove to be a more important matter in assessing his viability in November."

"There are a number of signals pointing to difficulties for Obama in the South."

"In national surveys of white voters, conducted by television networks and newspapers, Obama has generally run ahead of John Edwards and behind Hillary Clinton. In the South, however, Edwards has run consistently ahead of Obama among whites."

MORE

[Blackhatjack]

1. This is a problem the Obama Campaign will need to address if he is the DEM Nominee...

The likelihood of a Democratic Winner in the General Election will be greatly reduced if that Nominee cannot win in the South.

It is not impossible .... but it is starting at a great disadvantage.

[bridgit]

2. agreed...

[AJ9000]

23. A Southern Dem is the only kind that has one in modern history. One of the

reasons I support Edwards.

[DaLittle Kitty]

26. THE TIME TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE ... IS NOW... NOT LATER! VIABILITY?

Wake Up kool aid drinkers! :eyes: :crazy:

[stillcool]

3. No kidding...

I think Obama may be facing white resistance in the North, East, and West as well. Hopefully that pasty-faced, limp-dicked, wonder-bread breed will be dying off soon.

[OHdem10]

6. This is baffling--I would have thought those promoting him

would have studied this sort of thing before having him get
into the race and espend so much energy.

[sandnsea]

4. could we stop pushing this racist/sexist garbage

We don't need to use race and gender as wedges and fear tactics this way.

[Blackhatjack]

7. If Obama does well in the South with blacks, but not with whites, isn't this legitimate discussion?

If Obama is going to be the Democratic Nominee then race cannot be the 'third rail' that no one can touch. You can bet that the Repub Nominee will make it an issue.

I want Obama to win every state in the South if he gets the nomination, and I think his campaign needs to be addressing this issue now and not later in the General Election.

The same is true of Hillary. If her gender is an issue in the South, now is the time to address it --not later.

[Skittles]

5. "racist resistance"

tell the truth

[southerncrone]

8. Really........Whoda thunk it?

:eyes:

Some of us in the South have warned about this since the beginning.

But, of course now that HuffPo say so, it's officially true.:boring:

[Blackhatjack]

10. In fact this has been discussed for some time by those of us living in the South(who aren't racists)

I linked to the HuffPo piece because it raises the issue with lots of information for further consideration.

Political strategists study all demographics and try to determine what characteristics in each voting district will produce which results. To do so is not being racist, but rather being a realist. And in some situations it helps the candidate to correct a misconception about them befor the Election is bearing down on the candidate.

[southerncrone]

12. As OHDem 10 states above, surely BO's campaign has pondered

this from the beginning & has a strategy in place. Should he win the nom he will be a sacrificial lamb in the GE for the Repukes.

He would need to heavily carry the Black vote in the South to win the GE.

I hope you were not referring to me as racist in this post. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Just wanted to make sure there was no misunderstanding between us. I always enjoy your posts, as they are usually informative & well-thought-out, BlackHatJack. My point is that this is not a NEW problem.

[Blackhatjack]

15. No not at all. I was just pointing out for the benefit of those not living in the South that...

KKKers are a miniscule portion of the population which gets an inordinate amount of attention, and that those of us who are not racists have legitimate concerns about strategic approaches to be considered for winning the South, and how important it is to be competitive there to win in the General Election.

Of course in places like NC when I live, percentages of African Americans run in the neighborhood of 20% -- but that 20% is not equally distributed throughout the state. THe same is true about other Southern states.

I think Obama will have to address the race issue in each of the different Southern states. Not because the people living there are racists, but because race is an issue that must be discussed.

[southerncrone]

17. Agreed. We have the same basic distribution in TN.

And although the "official" KKK members are few, there are "closet KKK" members--rednecks that hold the same beliefs, but aren't members. Difficult to determine how many that might be, because they often hold those cards close to their vests. But, they live in both urban & rural districts here in TN.

He does need to have a dialog on the race issue, just to clear the air in each state, show his leadership abilities. Talking about it could take it off the table for some "on the fence" rednecks, who might be evolving out of the "dark ages".

Will be an uphill battle, regardless.

Same for Hillary, should she be the nom.

[Blackhatjack]

21. I agree. If He does not have a dialog on race, unanswered questions will hurt him...

... and the same is true of Hillary on the gender question.

[Leopolds Ghost]

18. It's called acknowledging racism, not realism.

Just a minor correction there. There is nothing "realist" about racism. It is a mass psychosis that waxes and wanes dramatically depending on how much it is tolerated and not opposed by persons of good character such as you, as anyone studying US history knows.

Saying "I'm a realist" is not enough. It's incumbent on you to go out and change your neighbors' perception, whether the issue is Obama or New Orleans. You may find yourself questioning your own attitudes toward things like post-Katrina reconstruction or voter ID, etc. unless your beliefs are already significantly different than those of your neighbors (and most liberal southern whites do NOT vote liberal out of race or class solidarity, they do so on social issues.)

[Kucinich4America]

9. So a bunch of KKK assholes wouldn't vote for Obama? Big shock there.

You think they're going to vote for Hillary? Or even Edwards (yea, sure'n he's white, but he's a goddamn lawyer!!!11!!)

[Blackhatjack]

11. Members of the KKK are so small in number they don't even register in demographic polls in the South

.. and to group all non-African Americans in that group is a huge mistake.

Our Democratic Nominee is going to have to figure out a way to be competitive in the South to win the General Election, and that goes for all of them (Hillary, Obama or Edwards).

We cannot afford to cede the South and its electoral votes to the Republicans in the General Election.

[jbnow]

13. Read it, not impressed. Racist resistance

to Obama will be NOTHING compared to Clinton resistance outside of the party.

Neither are likely to win many southern states, they are Democrats. Southern states may well have more racial bias...they also have more gender bias.

And did I mention Hillary is a Clinton? You may have heard of the irrational anti-Clinton antipathy on the right? Now most wouldn't vote for any Dem but what a Clinton will do is motivate republicans who have been so unmotivated in primaries to get out and vote to defeat her in the general.

Are there open primaries in some southern states? Guess that will tell us more about Independents supporting them.

Obama is still the guy who will bring in new voters and the young often move beyond the bias of their parents.

Overall polls show Obama doing much better than Hillary against all the candidates. This shows a variety of head to head polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

CNN's poll (pdf) http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/12/rel1b.b.pdf shows them closer but with Obama still having a slight edge in the margin.

It does show Hillary with the highest "Will definitely vote for" but also the highest "definitely not".
Obama has the highest favorabilty rating of any candidate of either party and the lowest unfavorability, just a bit better than McCain. Clinton's favorability is just as high-but her unfavorabilty is far bigger. In fact hers ties for worst with a couple of republicans.

If we worry about losing in November Obama is not the one we need to worry about
Clinton is the worry and to correct the quote an earlier poster "This is baffling--I would have thought those promoting her would have studied this sort of thing before having her get into the race and espend so much energy"

[Radical Activist]

14. What white Democrat is going to win the deep south?

Give me a break. Obama has a better chance in some of the South because he's the only one who can produce a large increase in black voter turnout.

[Blackhatjack]

16. Actually African Americans have been remarkably consistent in showing up to vote in the South...

In most cases the African Americans have voted so consistently for Democrats that is why Rove and Company have continuously tried to create new and better ways to disenfranchise African American voters.

I hope Obama has a plan for countering those Repub plans.

Even so, any of the three (HRC/BO/JRE) can win in the South, but it will not be easy and they all need a strategy.

[Radical Activist]

19. They consistently vote Democrat, but they don't consistently vote.

Turn out among African Americans is lower than the general population. Its not a matter of Obama winning the black vote but rather increasing those who show up.

[Blackhatjack]

20. I don't pretend to be an expert here, but that observation is not true in our state of NC....

The last two Presidential Elections African Americans have 'turned out' in high numbers.

[amandabeech]

22. I think that we Dems will have to figure out how to win without the South once again.

We're just not that popular there.

Florida, Arkansas. Used to be Louisiana. Now folks say Virginia. I'm not hopeful about Tennessee.

It's like the reps in New England. Maybe they have a shot at NH with McCain, but otherwise, forget it.

We won't have as much money as the reps, probably, and we'll have to pass again.

[sunonmars]

24. Its ohio and Florida

Now if Hillary carries that handily and takes Ohio too, we have a big plus on her.

[Tatiana]

25. Well that's a given.

Look at how a typical, run-of-the-mill, conservative Dem, former member of the U.S. House of Representatives with a decent resume lost his bid for Tennessee Senator. Harold Ford, Jr. lost his bid for Senate because he couldn't overcome that "white resistance."

I'm sure Obama's team has some outreach strategy in the works, but I honestly don't know how you can fight that. A lot of those feelings are deeply rooted and I fear we have squandered the inroads Howard Dean made in that area. I think he has to be open, honest, and connect with those voters in a way that eases their fears and sends the message that his goal is to improve their way of life; not change or destroy it. Growing up in the south, I knew many whites who agreed with a lot of what Jesse Jackson said during his run for President, but they had huge fears regarding what they perceived his social policy to be.

I think it can be done; he has the charisma to move enough of the non-single-issue voters into his column, but he will really have to work hard on the stump. And he will definitely have to lure some of the traditional African-American party voters away from Clinton in order to have a shot at winning a good number of southern states.

[spanone]

27. duh