Thoughts on Mega Tuesday primaries (2/5) can't see how nominee will be chosen

[WI_DEM]

The mega states on Super Tuesday will be: NY, Illinois and California. It is probable that Clinton will win NY and Obama Illinois. That makes California the most sought after state that day, but there are several other major contests on 2/5: Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, Delaware, Colorado, Connecticut, Georiga, Idaho, Kansas, Massaschusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico,Tennessee, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Missouri and Utah.

States where I think Obama may have an edge: Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee with their large AA populations make up a large portion of turnout in a Dem primary and if AA are strong for Obama he probably will carry those states. Massachusetts will be a test as to how the Kerry endorsement plays. The state also has a lot of higher income, college educated folks who have been attracted to Obama. As does Connecticut where Ned Lamont endorsed Obama--could Obama benefit from the Lamont organization which won the Dem primary over Lieberman in 2006? possibly. North Dakota where Sen. Kent Conrad is supporting Obama may give him an edge there in a caucus state. In the west Obama may be helped by Gov. Napolitano's endorsment of him.

States where Clinton may have the edge: Delaware, where the AA female Governor endorsed Sen. Clinton. New Jersey which neighbors New York and gets a great deal of NYC media in some parts of the state. I think Missouri is more likely a Clinton state than an Obama state (though I also think that Edwards could be a factor here), Oklahoma (again Edwards will target this state too), and Kansas which has a female Governor (who has not yet endorsed).

States where Edwards may be a factor (and could win or come in second): Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama.

States where Kucinich could be a factor: Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota--all caucus states and I believe in '04 DK performed above expectations in all of them.

States where I don't know who would have the advantage: Idaho, California and New Mexico--again both caucus states. If Gov. Richardson would endorse one of the candidates that could be a determining factor in New Mexico.

So, I don't see how we have a nominee yet after 2/5 either. But one thing is clear the state that will be most competed in will be California and whoever wins that mega state with some 347 delegates will have strong bragging rights.

[skipos]

1. What states are winner take all? Is CA? nt

[WI_DEM]

2. I think all of them are proportional including CA.

At least with some of the delegates. I think the primary winner may win a bloc of delegates in some states and then another bloc are proportional, but I'm not sure.

[FreeState]

4. I think so as well.... here is a great site

that has all the rules and stats for each state... its a great bookmark:)

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

[Kucinich4America]

3. I sincerely hope there is NO "winner" on 2/5

It's obvious the whole thing was set up to force a short primary, and short primaries only benefit the corporatist candidates.

[Yael]

6. From your lips...

[Yukari Yakumo]

5. Don't count on Kuch having any effect.

His performance in '04 is probably due to everyone else but Kerry dropping out.

Will the nom be decided on SupTues? Possibly not.

Will it be the death knell of the Edwards campaign? If it's clear he won't be the nom, it should be. And that will probably happen unless a miracle happens for him.