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A few thoughts about New Hampshire. If you actually track most of the polls from September on, one thing seems obvious: If Obama closed to within less than 3 points of Clinton to earn a close second, the news story today - and the topic all the talking heads would be celebrating - is that the race had really tightened and Obama was coming on strong.
Remember, depending upon the poll Obama was often behind (prior to Iowa) by almost 20 points. Suddenly, the Iowa caucus monster (not a traditional election with secret ballot) gave Obama a victory of sorts that both he and, especially, the media blew completely out of proportion. For six days all we heard was that suddenly Hillary was basically dead and Obama was on a fast track.
Once everyone's plane landed in New Hampshire the next five days were spent by Clinton, Obama, and Edwards selling themselves as the legitimate "change agent" while the media pumped up the stories about Hillary's imminent demise. Poor Richardson just wanted to be in the photo-op and knew it was basically over except for positioning himself for another cabinet post.
Tuesday evening, as I watched Terry McAuliffe celebrating Hillary's victory, I realized that Team Clinton had pulled a slick one. The entire strategy was to take six months of being ahead in the polls and replace it with the notion the it was Obama who was the odds on favorite in NH. By Tuesday we lived in the make-believe world that anything less than a 10 point Obama victory was tantamount to an Obama failure and a major Clinton accomplishment.
I should note that at least two out of the numerous polls taken in New Hampshire had the race withing three points which is well within the margin of error. Those polls were not as "spin worthy" to get the publicity of the polls showing Obama ahead by 8, 9 10 points. The polls showing the bigger Obama lead got the play.
When you consider that characters and powerful Democratic insiders like Mark Penn, McAuliffe himself, Anne Lewis and political hit-man Howard Wolfson are Hillary's key players, the concept of Hillary as a real agent of change is clearly a joke.
Monday's tear jerking performance may not have been scripted. Perhaps Hillary deserves credit for seizing the opportunity and welling up at just the right moment. Or perhaps she truly was jolted by the fact that some Democrats just didn't want Hillary, even in New Hampshire. Whatever the reason, it along with what seemed like good dose of "piling on" by the media (and possible encouraged by strategically placed from within Team Clinton such as "Campaign shakeup imminent; Penn will get fired)
Monday evening MSNBC.com posted an on-line video interview between Brian Williams and Obama that lasted over twenty minutes. It was delightful viewing, particularly for those supporting the Illinois Senator. It also revealed that Obama appeared to buy into the media hype that his recent polling surge and large crowds signaled something special was happening that bode well for his candidacy. He should have been very skeptical. It appeared he wasn't.
Even without the surprise victory, Hillary was poised to spin any loss under five or six points as a great comeback. She got lucky and actually won. But, the reality is that it was Obama who closed from a double digit deficit in the polls to less than 3 points on Tuesday.
Organization Democrats turned out in larger numbers than "independents" who lean Democrat. Traditional "party regulars" don't favor "change" candidates like Obama. The dark cloud on the horizon for Obama is that unless he can increase turn-out from Democrats committed to real change, he'll lose in those primaries where Independents are not allowed to vote.
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