Obama and the Hannah Montana Factor

[catnhatnh]

The big story of the week is the growing groundswell of Obama support, and a hell of a story it is. Independent (read:centrist) and first time voters (read:the youth vote) are trending heavily to the charismatic Iowa front runner. While this trend bodes well for any democratic nominee it may NOT be as big a boost to the Obama campaign as first thought.
First things first-there was never any way independents were going to break republican. Obama aside I believe any democrat could have counted on at least a 66/33% break to our side. The astoundingly high break for Obama may be less a factor of total electorate appeal than independents looking for a centrist candidate and first time voter/independents being effected by the media buzz.
As to the pure youth vote, again much of it is the democratic candidates to lose. That leaves only the questions of political naivety...with the mainstream buzz hyping a "Tsunami" while teen voters are in thrall to facebook/mypage viral campaigns the support looks more and more like flash rather than content-an "Obama Potter and the election of Doom".
Neither is this a plot or a conspiracy theory...just a roll of the dice. At a time when all people are increasingly pissed off (politically involved) came along a candidate who is young, black, handsome and a charismatic speaker. He has garnered unmatched popularity and his support is his to hold.
But the fight has not ended-in fact has not truly begun before two more democrats drop out. With cheers to Mr. Richardson for his well run campaign, he is a cypher...what little support he has,even if signed sealed and delivered to any other candidate, barely registers on the radar. So other than some bizarre Obama melt-down it comes down to Hilliary and John Edwards and who if any folds 'em first. Of course Obama prays it's Edwards leaving a legacy of sweet ripe anti-Hilliary and progressive votes. Just as Hilliary's last best hope may be a brokered convention.
And what does John Edwards have left to hope for??? Only the strength to endure.

[existentialist]

1. As has been remarked elsewhere,

A large part the importance of the energy and enthusiasm that Obama's campaign brings to politics is not just the percentage of the independent voters that support him, but their numbers.

You are probably right that the bulk of independent voters will support any Democratic candidate this year.

But, if 50% of possible independent voters turn out to vote for Hillary Clinton or John Edwards, and vote 70% for the Democratic ticket as a whole, that's good, but it is not as good as if 70% of possible independent voters turn out to vote for Obama and vote 70% for the Democratic ticket as a whole.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. I'm universally anti-buzz, so unfortunately Obama has my ire right now.

I don't think this buzz is going to carry this thing into the fall. As for his programs, they don't make any practical sense. The gop will tear him apart.