Cordesman: US escalation and UK withdrawl will lead to same thing, expanded Shi'ite influence

[sabra]

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/news_theswamp/2007/02/expert_british_.html#more

British Troop Reductions in Iraq

By Anthony H. Cordesman


There is no doubt that any British troop reduction that is not coordinated with a US reduction weakens the image of the Coalition and further isolates the US. This is a war of perceptions, as well as military power, and the influence of British cuts will be negative.

At the same time, the British military position in the south is radically different from that of the US. The British long ago essentially ceded the two provinces they control -- Basra and Maisan -- to Shi'ite Islamist factions. They lost Basra in 2005 to rival Shi'ite extremist parties and essentially let most of the city become a no go zone unless they conducted active operations. They pulled out of much of the southeast to the north of Basra in 2006.

...

As a result, the British cuts will in many ways simply reflect the political reality that the British "lost" the south more than a year ago. The Shi'ites will takeover, Iranian influence will probably expand, and more Sunnis, Christians, and other minorities will leave. British action will mean more pressure for federation and separatism, but local power struggles are more likely to be between Shi'ite factions than anything else.

The irony is that British force cuts may well have the same de facto effect as the new set of US military operations in Baghdad. If the Shi'ite militias in Baghdad continue to stand down, and US-led operations continue to focus on local security and defeating the Sunnis, the end result of creating "white spots" in Baghdad will be to solidify Shi'ite control over most of the city and province, segregate Sunnis, and push Sunnis into divided areas outside the city.

In effect, both the UK and US may end up acting to expand Shi'ite influence in very different ways.