Des Moines Register poll NOT reflecting trends; nightly canvasses

[DemKR]

Mark Penn

UPDATE: Two new Iowa polls are out today. In the Zogby poll, it's Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 25. In the CNN/Opinion Research poll, Hillary leads with 33 percent, Obama 31, Edwards 22.

*****

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.

Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/26-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24

So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/blog/view/?id=19621

[KharmaTrain]

1. Mark Penn Wrote This?

:popcorn:

[DemKR]

2. He based it on statistics, look at the poll results yourself independently

You will see that the poll predicts FOUR out of TEN voters who go to the polls will be Independent--a 30%+ jump from 2000 and 2004.

It's not that it couldn't happen, it's just that it does not seem likely.

[KharmaTrain]

4. It's All Organization

What will matter on Thursday is the candidate who can get their people to their caucuses. Looking at the weather, it's gonna be cold and polls could go out the window when it comes to traveling out on a night with the temps in the single digits. Also, there's a big wildcard on how many college students at Iowa and Iowa State have stuck around during their break...they could be a wildcard...either up or down.

With the length of this primary and the large number of candidates, it's natural to expect an increase in the number of attendees...the same is predicted for the GOOP (but the DMR pollster on WJ said she found it harder to find those people who are going as opposed to Democrats).

I can't or won't predict what will happen Thursday. There's too many variables at play to get an accurate result. The one thing that has and always matters is the organization getting out their people...that's what helped Kerry in '04. All three major candidates have well oiled operations within the state...it's all boots on the ground...ones we don't see in the polls.

Cheers...

[Dems Will Win]

7. It's Extremely Likely, In fact Highly Probable. Only One Reason of Course

the candidate is BARACK OBAMA.

WE WILL! WE WILL! BARACK YOU!!!

[matcom]

3. how many times are you going to change the title of this thread?

I count 3 so far :rofl:

[sendero]

5. There's one poll that matters..

... and it's coming up soon.

The rest of these polls are ALL within the margin of error as a dead heat.

I find it typical that the CNN poll shows Edwards down compared to the others. The corporate world REALLY does not want to deal with Edwards.

Who, BTW, is the only candidate (of the top 3) that I'd be happy with.

[Windy]

6. Look, its a DEAD HEAT between the top three... no way around it.

The only poll that counts in the one on Thursday!!

My god, will you please stop this hit and run approach to DU.

I wonder, how old are you DemKR? Early 20s?

[book_worm]

8. well of course Clinton mouth piece Mark Penn would try to demolish this poll.