cspan1 just starting chat about DMR poll---Wash J.

[rodeodance]

[ticapnews]

1. In order for Clinton or Edwards to win Iowa, there would need to be

a cataclysm?

Interesting verbiage.

[KharmaTrain]

2. Pick 'Em

Two problems with polling in Iowa. First, is the one that is happening around the country...the lack of ability to contact people on cellphones and with more people using those phones than "landlines" these days, it's getting harder to get the adequate sample number and then it is skewed toward older people as they're the ones who still have AND ANSWER their phones. I would bet that is even tougher now as homes are getting robo-called constantly...primary fatigue has set in.

The other wild-card is how many people will actually go to the caucuses. When I lived in Iowa in '88, the anticipated participation in the caucuses were well below what the DMR and other media in the state predicted. While the activists can't wait for Thursday, the populace gets tired of it (why the totals are always so low) and the process seems long, complicated and silly. The candidate that overcomes this last obstacle will do very well on Thursday.

[rodeodance]

4. she said they had cell phone numbers

[KharmaTrain]

6. My Bets Are There Weren't Many

The laws are so obstrusive in this (thank goodness) that the only way a pollster can get cell numbers is by getting them directly from the caller. Another problem are targeting these cellphones...with people using the PCS systems and overlays, getting a truly local sample could also be problematic.

Few pollsters like to talk about cellphones...it's their worst nightmare.

[ThomWV]

3. I hate acronyms

Your post is cryptic at best.

[KharmaTrain]

5. She's Trying To Soft Peddle The Weighting

All pollsters do it...to get what the pollster considers a more preportional sample they will throw out some results or pump up other ones. She points out all the older ladies she reaches (they still have landlines and answer the phone) and surely those are weighed lesser than a younger person.

[KharmaTrain]

7. Kucinich Caller...

He definitely sounded African-American...at first made a lot of sense. Then he says that if Kucinich can't win, then he'll support Ron Paul. Has this guy a clue about what Paul thinks about the civil war???

I'll be happy when the silly season is over...