Edwards gaining ground in NH according to new Poll

[book_worm]

Hoping that a strong showing in Iowa will help him in NH the Edwards campaign must be happy with the latest American Research Poll of NH primary voters showing him gaining six-points since the last poll only a couple of weeks ago.

Here are the current NH results among the Democrats:
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 21%
Richardson: 5%
Biden: 3%
Kucinich 3%
Dodd: 1%
Gravel 1%

In a survey December 16-19 Clinton led with 38% (a drop of 7-points for Sen. Clinton), Obama had 24% (a gain of 3-points) while Edwards had 15% (a gain of six-points).

www.americanresearchgroup.com

They also show the Iowa contest getting closer, but not yet as close as other polls.
Clinton: 31% with both Obama and Edwards at 24% but this is also a decrease for Clinton and gains for both Obama and Edwards in Iowa.

[Evergreen Emerald]

1. that is very scary. He could not bring the win for Kerry--how can he do it on his own?

We are in trouble in the Democratic party.

[last1standing]

2. Strange...I thought Kerry couldn't bring the win for Kerry.

But that's just how I see it. :crazy:

[Evergreen Emerald]

3. Did he help? Did he hurt? Was he neither?

He did not bring his home state. What would be different this time? The idiocy of the republican candidates? That is what we thought last time!

[last1standing]

7. VPs rarely help or hurt a ticket as proved by Dan Quayle and Dick Cheney.

But if you need to project your anger over Kerry's loss onto someone else, I suppose Edwards as as good a scapegoat as anyone else.

[tired_old_fireman]

8. How many commercials did Kerry run in North Carolina?

Zero. Kerry ran zero commercials in North Carolina. You think that might have played a part in not winning the state?

[TwilightGardener]

4. Yeah, Kerry was his own weak link.

[book_worm]

6. huh? since when was it John Edwards fault that John Kerry didn't win?

[LSK]

15. It is amazing how people can draw different conclusions

A win in Iowa for Edwards could give him momentum in NH enough to gain that 10%.

Also, I heard the Edwards camp is not giving NH as much attention as other states. So if he wins there or comes close, that is HUGE.

PS: Kerry wins in 2004 if Cleveland has the proper number of voting machines.

[last1standing]

5. If Iowa goes to Edwards then NH is definitely in play.

The media has had a black out on Edwards for the past year but the Iowa polls have changed that now. We'll see what he can do to sustain it.

[RiverStone]

24. He wins Iowa, even a 2nd place NH finish would be BIG...

That would give him plenty of MO heading into SC and Super Tuesday. Edwards, IMO, is the only Dem running who can beat the rethug nominee in every region of the country. He has the most realistic chance to win!

[onehandle]

9. After John's Iowa win, everything will change.

He will gain across the board.

[polichick]

10. Great news...

Pickin' up speed right when it counts!

[cali]

11. it doesn't matter if JE wins Iowa or even NH

This year there is, in essence, national primary. It's on Feb 5 and JE just doesn't have the resources to compete.

[book_worm]

12. We will see.

If Hillary loses both Iowa and NH her support collapses nationwide just as Dean's did four years ago. Even if she wins one and loses another she shows vulnerability and not looking inevitable anymore I think her support will fall in many key states.

[chimpymustgo]

13. Cali, sometimes voters choose based on more than money. Your pessimism is so unbecoming.

You jump into every good news thread to throw cold water.

Edwards will be rolling in free press with a win in Iowa and a strong finish in NH - can you say "Comeback Kid"?

[book_worm]

14. Just as Bill Clinton surged in '92 as "the comeback kid" after finishing second in NH

[cali]

19. It's just so different this year. You can no more compare this year

with 1992 than you can compare it to 1976 or 1960.

[book_worm]

20. will I think I would compare it to four years ago with Kerry taking off after his Iowa victory

and I think there is a strong potential that Edwards could do the same this time if he wins Iowa and does strongly in NH.

[cali]

22. nope. JK wasn't limited by having taken matching funds.

What you don't seem to realize is that it matters very little if JE can raise money after Iowa: He won't be able to spend it in the big primary states after he reaches certain limits- and he's already spent at least half of what he has to spend for the entire primary season- and the lion's share of those expenditures have been in Iowa with NH a distant second. How can he compete in CA?

[book_worm]

25. It can be done with some early momentum

I concede it won't be easy, but it can be done. The problem is if he wins the nomination he won't have alot of money to compete with the GOP nominee before the convention--unless it's McCain, which is becoming more likely.

I think this is their strategy:
Iowa--win--a few months ago a Edwards win wouldn't have helped him as much, but then Hillary and Obama began to surge and it became more a contest between them. Now Edwards is surging and a victory in Iowa will be much more helpful.

NH: Not necessarily win but a strong second. He's gaining there now according to this poll.

Michigan: He might be helped there due to his union support.

South Carolina: He has to do well here to keep up any momentum. Probably will need to win again as he did in '04.

Then he has to pick and choose which are the most important states on 2/5, the so-called "national primary":
Obviously he concedes NY to Hillary and IL to Obama, but can he come in second in both and capture some delegates? depends on how strong he is at that time in those states.

I think he lets California be the decisive test between Obama and Hillary and whoever loses there is probably wounded pretty badly. Again he should try and win a few delegate there, but really let it be a duo between Hillary and Obama.

So where does he compete on that day? Obviously the South. While Obama and Hillary are slugging it out in California he should concentrate on the Southern states holding primaries and caucuses (especially as the only true southerner in the race):
Alabama
Georgia
Arkansas
Missouri (a border state)
Oklahoma (another border state, Clark won there in '04 but only narrowly over Edwards)
Tennessee

Outside of the South I think he makes a play for Minnesota (caucusing that day), Utah and Idaho.

He should also assess his situation in MA and see how it looks and maybe compete there, too.

If Edwards wins most of those Southern states, places well in Illinois, MA and the western states and either Hillary or Obama are eliminated with California then I think Edwards goes on to fight another day against one key opponent--either Hillary or Obama.

I think then the deciding matches will be Wisconsin and especially Ohio.

[Ninga]

If you think about how much he has been outspent by Clinton and Obama (nearly 300%)

and if you think about how Edawards has done more with less...and you think about the fact that Edwards has not been knocked out of the race with by all the money....it is pretty amayzing and shows how more can be done with less.

[cali]

27. He hasn't been outspent by 300% in Iowa- and really that's what

we're talking about when we talk about him doing well.

[book_worm]

28. kick

[Ninga]

26. If you think about how much he has been outspent by Clinton and Obama (nearly 300%)

and if you think about how Edawards has done more with less...and you think about the fact that Edwards has not been knocked out of the race with by all the money....it is pretty amayzing and shows how more can be done with less.

[cali]

18. do stop making stuff up. I do not jump into every good news thread

- not even close. I'm sorry it's about money, but it is. And this situation with Edwards illustrates that. There's one hope for Edwards and that is a double edged sword. If JE gets the nomination of the dem party and JMac gets the nominee of the repuke party, they'll be on an equal footing as far as funding goes- but McCain would definitely be the toughest competition for Edwards. Still, I expect JE could beat him. But if he's up against Romney or Guiliani, he's in trouble. They will spend a hundred million or more, framing JE for months.

[LSK]

16. didnt Dean have record amounts of money in 2004 before Iowa??

:shrug:

[cali]

21. again, JE is limited by spending limits of $50 million in a year

where there really is a national primary. And many of those are states that will take a large field operation and advertising to win. He doesn't have the former and he can't afford the latter.

[TahitiNut]

17. Iowa and NH are all about attracting "resources" ... beyond priming the pump.

Before Thanksgiving, "name recognition" pumped the polls and attracted those 'resources.' Since then, SOME folks have burped up some turkeys, finished their annual orgasm of mercantilism, scratched their asses and looked around at who the hell those people are. (The WGS strike has helped ... somewhat.)

Remember, it's still one dollar = one vote. :shrug:

[cali]

23. JE is limited to spending $50 million dollars throughout the primary

season, which ends the day after the convention on August 29th. So even if he could raise 50 million; he can't spend it. He's already spent at least $25 million. And there are 20 states to compete in on Feb 5, including NY, CT, MA, CA, IL and NJ. Those are expensive states to run operations and ads in.

[B Calm]

29. Anybody who works for a paycheck and doesn't vote for Edwards is

is a damn fool!