Don't knock your heads together too much on Iowa polls--step with me into the wayback machine

[jpgray]

Dec 2003 Pew Poll
Dean -29%
Gephardt-21%
Kerry-18%
Edwards-5%

Dec 2, 2003 Zogby Poll
Dean-26%
Gephardt-22%
Kerry-9%
Edwards-5%

Jan 5-7, 2004 Survey USA Poll
Dean-29%
Gephardt-22%
Kerry-21%
Edwards-17%

Jan 8, 2004 Research 2000 Poll
Dean-29%
Gephardt-25%
Kerry-18%
Edwards-8%

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS- Jan 19
Kerry-38%
Edwards-32%
Dean-18%
Gephardt-11%

[gateley]

1. That's really interesting -- the two that CONSISTENTLY were at the bottom

took #1 and #2.

I, for one, REALLY appreciate you posting this! :7

[jpgray]

2. It just shows that it's difficult to poll--it doesn't show the bottom two will win

:D But at least it's not anywhere near as definitive as a NH primary poll might be.

[IndyOp]

3. The Jan 8 poll is especially relevant. We are only 10 days from the Iowa Caucus

as of right now. All 4 polls from 2004 were really consistent in terms of where the candidates fell and then the caucus results just 11 days after the 1/8/04 poll were really different. Do you know what events might have happened during that period to swing people away from Dean?

:shrug:

[jpgray]

4. If I remember the infamous "Osama ad" got a lot of credit for nuking Gep and Dean

The former for being supposedly behind it and the latter as the target. But I'm not sure if that was the primary or major cause of the weirdness.

[PADemD]

9. CNN played the "Dean scream" over and over and over again.

[MonkeyFunk]

10. Yes

as many here predicted they would after seeing it live:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=141954


YOu can see from the reactions there that it WAS a big deal, even before it was replayed.

[Pastiche423]

11. Yep

You can see the willfully ignorant that fell for the RW trick. As we all know now (or should know now), Dean was holding a wireless mic that canceled out the crowd noise.

[MonkeyFunk]

13. doesn't matter what the mic was like

read the thread - it was the content AND the tone that made people know it was the end of the road for Dean.

People didn't fault the volume.

[Pastiche423]

14. Complete and utter bullshit

His tone matched his supporters in the room. Some of those in the room that day were DUers. They said they could not even hear Dean over the roar of the crowd.

Please stop repeated RW bullshit.

[jpgray]

16. Regardless of the experience in the room, the experience on TV was not positive

And the responsibility for that? Having a directional mic, knowing what you're going to sound like in the recording is pretty necessary. That basically comes down to the guy's staff or the technical guru for the appearance. It's trivial and arbitrary yeah, but no RW hijinks were necessary. Trivial image issues are front and center in modern campaigns. It sucks and is unfair, but that's what candidates have to deal with.

[Pastiche423]

18. The experience on tv was because of the RW

They played it over and over again, never once explaining about the mic. Even Diane Sawyer did a mea culpa over it.

[jpgray]

23. It was unfair, but that's par for the course these days

Look at Gore's comments on the internet, Love Canal, etc. Or John Kerry's "global test" flap, which was construed as support for some sort of veto on US power even though in context he explicitly said he supported nothing of the sort. Whereas George's lies in 2000 about his own tax plan went completely ignored in favor of sighs.

So yeah it's unfair to focus on it, but it did look bad on the live broadcast. And a lot of people were watching.

[MonkeyFunk]

17. The only bullshit

is the people who claim that it was a setup.

People who watched it live KNEW it was a meltdown.

[Pastiche423]

20. That is not true

and it has been proven.

Dean had no "meltdown". He was trying to be heard above the din in the room. He was holding a directional mic that silenced all other sounds.

He was way ahead in the polls and had to be stopped. The MSM did their RW duty by trying to make him look angry. And because of the stupidity level of many Americans, it worked.

[truedelphi]

21. the RW is more than happy to use the technology to change reality

And with their hold on the media they can control the whole ball of wax.
Remember Michael Moore at the Academy Awards that one time people booed him? It was not a whole lot of boos, but the RW had the sound enhanced so that it sounded like an entire room of people booing Moore.

And that is what got played on the News Hours. This entire chorus of people booing Michael.

[Pastiche423]

22. Out of sheer luck

my tv was on and I caught Michael Moore's acceptance speech. I heard no boos during the live broadcast.

Later when I heard it repeated w/boos, I thought, there they go again.

Don't know if you've heard it, but Dean made lemonade out of the lemons that were thrown at him by the RW:

http://www.ysearchblog.com/files/howard_dean_ylocal.mp3

[Yuugal]

25. Dean Reloaded!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwto2s_FbnI

The Doctor was definitely in.

[truedelphi]

34. That YouTube URLwas an ad for Yahoo - with Dean mocking

Himself and his alleged Screaming persona.

It was great. Thank you for posting it.

[Le Taz Hot]

33. The "Dean Scream"

happened after the Iowa Caucus.

[madrchsod]

5. i`m on a quest next year to purchase that bo diddly album.

[truedelphi]

6. Bo Diddly album. Which one?

And not that I am ever on topic, but how does your comment relate?

[jpgray]

7. Probably my sig pic

:)

[madrchsod]

8. you`re right..

[Cha]

12. Things change..

that's for sure.

[WillyT]

15. Not The Wayback Machine !!!

Scary stuff indeed!

:hi:

[SnoopDog]

19. Yes, that’s when ‘they’ stopped Dean and a no-name appeared.

Dean would have trounced the Bush so ‘they’ had to stop him. The made up the scream thing and it was complete bullcrap.

And magically the no-name Kerry moved up and of course ran a crappy campaign and although ‘won’ – his tail was between his legs. Not Edwards thou…

[jpgray]

24. Note the scream was the speech immediately following the caucus, not preceding it

[Yukari Yakumo]

26. One convenient detail you're omitting.

The Undecideds.

If I remember correctly, Dean was frequently battling with Undecided up until the caucus.

The same is not remotely true this year.

Not to mention, in '04 Dean and Gephardt were busy sniping at each other. It appears that in '08 Obama and Edwards are taking that mantle.

[Lasher]

27. Let's take that wayback ride a little further

Iowa Caucus results

February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%).

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/99999999/NEWS09/71114028/0/NEWS

[Yukari Yakumo]

28. So?

Harkin was the native son. Nobody doubted that this would be the result.

[Lasher]

31. So the Iowa Caucus is not always an accurate predictor of final results.

In 1988 Michael Dukakis came in third in Iowa at 22% but went on to win the Democratic nomination.

George McGovern was the Democratic nominee in 1972 but came in second in Iowa that year at 23%.

George H. W. Bush came in third at 19% in the 1988 Republican Iowa Caucus but won the presidency that year.

Ronald Reagan came in second came in second at 30% in the 1980 Republican Iowa Caucus but was elected president.

[Eurobabe]

29. So Edwards or Biden will win? LOL.

Here's to hoping

[mmonk]

30. It's what I've been stressing to people.

This caucus state is the hardest to gage as to how it will turn out due to the 15% rule.

[Le Taz Hot]

32. It always amazed me how

"miraculously" (Machine hand-picked) Kerry went from 3rd to 1st -- seemingly overnight. Nah, no inside manipulation there. No sirreee! :wow:

[Pastiche423]

35. I had the same thoughts

It drew a great big WTF from me.