POLL: Hillary opens up 14-point lead in Iowa; Edwards in 2nd

[DemKR]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-715.html

Clinton 34
Edwards 20
Obama 19

[still_one]

1. we shall see, since I can show you other polls that contradict yours /nt

[ThomWV]

2. Meaningless ....

[ronnykmarshall]

5. Of course it is.

It shows Hillary in the lead. Therefore it's crap.

[Blarch]

3. yawn

[Pirate Smile]

4. She should win big. If she doesn't win big it will be a shock. She should blow them away.

If she doesn't win big, it will be a crushing blow. She should win by at least 10 points, maybe 15.



:evilgrin:

[still_one]

6. Really...

"She has never really been ahead here in Iowa," says Arthur B. Sanders, a politics professor at Drake University in Des Moines and author of Losing Control: Presidential Elections and the Decline of Democracy. "Her national lead made it easy to assume she would win here as well, especially since her national campaign gave off an image of her 'inevitable' victory. And a national press that had not spent time here, did not really understand how different the situation was here."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20071224/us_time/howclintonlostherinvincibility

[Pirate Smile]

7. Have you ever heard of the expectations game?

There was a reason I included this guy :evilgrin: in my post ;)

[still_one]

20. Sorry, I am somewhat dense. Thanks /nt

[mod mom]

8. Proof not to believe polls.

[Lucinda]

9. Hmmm...shift is from Obama and Richardson to Clinton, Edwards and Undecided

A big win for Hillary wouldn't surprise me, after looking at poll breakdowns for a few days, but I still think anything can happen.

[Jim Sagle]

10. Whadda crocka chickenshit bullshit.

[MonkeyFunk]

12. It's a post with a link and some numbers

what's chickenshit about it?

[Jim Sagle]

34. The numbers...definitely the numbers.

[book_worm]

16. would you be saying that if it was a poll showing Edwards leading?

[Jim Sagle]

21. Probably not - but I still wouldn't believe it.

[liskddksil]

11. ARG has been pretty spotty in the past

Their sample size is rather small and they do not release their specefic internals. They also did not ask about second choices, which will be a factor in the Iowa caucus rule.

[Quixote1818]

24. Didn't they blow Iowa in 2004? nt

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

13. That would make me feel bad..if I lived in Iowa.

Fortunately, I don't. And, my vote isn't decided by Iowans.

[book_worm]

14. ARG also shows Hucklebee and Romney now in a virtual tie in Iowa with McCain coming on strong

[The River]

15. Look! Up In The Sky! It's A Bird, Its a Plane, It's

a huge flying pile of Polls.
Faster than a speeding rumor
more powerful than the MSM
able to leap tall issues in a single flip-flop.
It's Super-Hillary!

[durrrty libby]

17. That would be fab. I hope it is true

[leftchick]

18. apparently Iowans are not aware of her RW foreign policies

or the polls are fixed. I imagine the former because a lot of people do not get to read about her neocon agenda....

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4803

Hillary Clinton on International Law


Perhaps the most terrible legacy of the administration of President George W. Bush has been its utter disregard for such basic international legal norms as the ban against aggressive war, respect for the UN Charter, and acceptance of international judicial review. Furthermore, under Bush’s leadership, the United States has cultivated a disrespect for basic human rights, a disdain for reputable international human rights monitoring groups, and a lack of concern for international humanitarian law.

Ironically, the current front-runner for the Democratic nomination for president shares much of President Bush’s dangerous attitudes toward international law and human rights.

For example, Senator Hillary Clinton has opposed restrictions on U.S. arms transfers and police training to governments that engage in gross and systematic human rights abuses. Indeed, she has supported unconditional U.S. arms transfers and police training to such repressive and autocratic governments as Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Pakistan, Equatorial Guinea, Azerbaijan, Cameroon, Kazakhstan, and Chad, just to name a few. She has also refused to join many of her Democratic colleagues in signing a letter endorsing a treaty that would limit arms transfers to countries that engage in a consistent pattern of gross and systematic human rights violations.

Civilian Casualties

Not only is she willing to support military assistance to repressive regimes, she has little concern about controlling weapons that primarily target innocent civilians. Senator Clinton has refused to support the international treaty to ban land mines, which are responsible for killing and maiming thousands of civilians worldwide, a disproportionate percentage of whom have been children.

[CoffeeCat]

19. Hillary will be lucky to come in third...

I'm sitting here in Iowa, chuckling at this poll. I don't know if the
Clinton camp commissioned this poll or if the questions were biased, but
I can tell you that Hillary Clinton will DEFINITELY not make the top
two in Iowa. She'll be lucky to come in third.

Hillary has run an abysmal campaign here. She entered the state with her
name recognition and her "inevitability." One of the first things she did
when the campaign season geared up, was to call a legitimate questioner
in Davenport "a plant" because he dared to ask her a question about Iran.

Then Hillary's campaign plants questions at a Grinnell, Iowa event, then denies
it. Then another Iowa woman steps forward and reveals that Hillary's campaign
asked her to ask a planted question. Hillary looks scripted, disingenuous and
Rovian. ...and ooops, her "inevitability just evaporated!

Her campaign then went on to fire two people for slimy Obama attacks. We all
had a big laugh when she went medieval on Obama's calculating days as an overachieving
kindergartner.

Then, Bill Clinton insinuated that Obama had one year of experience (I guess he
wasn't counting kindergarten) and pontificated about a world-tour with Bush Sr
that would never happen.

Hillary's answer to all of this? Spend the last 10 days of the campaign touring
with her "BBFF entourage" that can't tell us enough how nice she was in junior
high. It was as if she was running for Prom Queen, and not the Presidency.

I don't know. Call me crazy, but this has been a discombobulated joke. No one
is impressed. Furthermore, her campaign is hardly vigorous. I get calls and home
visits from all of the candidates, except Hillary. I get invited to campaign events
every few days. No Hillary invites. Where in the heck is she? While Obama, Edwards
Biden and Dodd are constantly meeting with Iowans, answering questions and allowing
caucus goers to challenge them--Hillary seems to still orchestrate large, scripted
events intended to "message" us to death.

This formula doesn't exactly inspire caucus goers to fight for you. Did you about
Hillary's latest Iowa debacle. Scratch a Hillary post card, send it in with your
name and address and win a free mug from the Hillary campaign! I'm no stranger to
the Iowa stereotypes, but for the love of Pete--does she know that we're not complete
morons?

I'm involved in local politics and active in our community. I rarely meet one of her supporters. Everyone is talking about Obama, Edwards and Biden is rising as well. Unless she can
somehow buy or steal the Iowa caucus, she's not going to fare well at all.

I call total bullshit on this poll.

I've seen absolutely NOTHING from Hillary that would motivate myself (or anyone else) to
trudge out into the snow and caucus for her. She's an empty pantsuit running a miscalculated
campaign.

There are these signs--and many more--pointing to a disappointing Jan 3 for Hillary.

[Laurab]

32. Whew!

Thank you for that....it was a bit worrisome for a minute! It's nice to know what's really happening - and what you wrote was way closer to what I thought (and hoped).

[K Gardner]

33. That post is the best Christmas present I could ask for..

It deserves to be an OP ! Stay warm, have a wonderful holiday :-)

:yourock:

[JDPriestly]

22. If I understand how the Iowa caucuses work, the polls there don't mean much.

In addition, the polls are all over the place.

[LeftCoast]

23. Remember a couple of weeks ago when the approved response to a post showing HRC in the lead was

to decry the Clinton 'triumphalism'?

This whole board has gone off the deep end.

[Major Hogwash]

25. Nah, I don't think that is it. It's just that more people are paying attention to the recent polls.

And this poll is exactly opposite of what almost every other poll out there says, just this morning.

Maybe they should change their name to Arrrggghhh.

[DFW]

26. I find that poll about as realistic as a forecast of ten inches of snow on Honolulu tomorrow

I give it THAT much chance of being anywhere near like that.
What's more, I think Hillary's organization expects nothing
of the sort either. If they're as calculating as everyone
seems to say they are, then surely they know that their
chances of coming in first in Iowa are slim at best. It won't
sink her campaign, of course, but her campaign will go nowhere
fast if run by people who have such fantasy expectations.

I don't expect her to win or lose by bigger than a 10% margin,
and any poll that reflects a different result will, as things stand
now, probably end up being wishful thinking in either direction.

[superkia]

27. Polls represent what the media is pushing at a certain time.

The polls follow what the media gives us, pay attention to the time the candidates are getting on the boob tube and you will amazingly be able to predict the upcoming poll results, they are a complete waste of time.

[earthlover]

28. sounds like an "outliar" to me....we will see if similar results start showing up

I tend to doubt such a sudden change is occuring, without any event to cause it.

[College Liberal]

29. This breaks my heart.....

I really don't think she can win :(


:hi:

[2hip]

30. But the question remains --

Who's supporters will actually show up to caucus? Therein lies the Iowa rub.


Pssst…show your support!

[undeterred]

31. I'm so sick of Hillary already I could just barf.

:puke: I think we need more than one puke icon.