If the stock market is below 8000 in Oct 08, we win hands down, above that we have a 50/50 chance.

[CK_John]

It's the economy stupid, not the personal lives of the candidates, not who voted for/against the war, not who is for education when there are no jobs, not for who is for Medical Ins unless its free and not who has a better God gene. It's all about what can you do for me.

[mmonk]

1. And if they vote wrong because they are that intellectually lazy,

Canada, here I come. Can't keep waiting for the change in direction desperately needed that never comes.

[alfredo]

2. It's not the stock market, it is the corner market that affects our

daily lives. People will vote depending on the cost of a gallon of milk.

[Mythsaje]

3. It won't just be the stock market...

It'll be the consumer confidence index, the housing market, unemployment rates, inflation, etc...

[CK_John]

6. Why make it complicated? The DJ will reflect all of those items? n/t

[Mythsaje]

9. Not necessarily...

It's how it affects the people personally that will make the most difference. The DJ MAY reflect it accurately, it may not.

[napi21]

4. If the stock market is below 8000 in Dec. 08, there won't be an

e;ection! Nobody will be able to afford the gas to get to the polls!

Nope, it's the gut feeling of the majority that matters, and 70%+ believe we are already in a recession!

[CK_John]

5. There are no election in Dec 08, unless you mean the electoral college.

[LiberalFighter]

8. No such thing as an electorial college

[CK_John]

14. Yup, changed.

[TheFarseer]

7. It won't be that low

The currency will just be so devalued that your 12,000 will be worth 8,000. I just about guarantee we see $4 gas next year and the government will step in to help people afford gas for their SUVs.

[CK_John]

10. How about 7.99 per gal? n/t

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

11. I live in...

The single most repuke area of NJ. Even here, most everyone knows it's time for a change and they won't be getting it from the repukes.

It's too bad the NJ Democratic Committee can't or won't see that. They ignore us out here and concede this area to the repukes, perhaps to allow a few whackos to serve, for contrast's sake.

[OHdem10]

12. What is good for Wall Street is not always good for Main Street.

In '92 Wall Street was doing fine, Daddy Bush lost--Main Street
was not doing so fine. Main Street has more voters. Right now
Wall Street is doing better than Main Street. Main Street is
anxious.

[SheilaT]

13. I'm just wondering why you

think the stock market might be below 8000 ten months from now. I just checked and it closed today at 13,432.77. You're postulating a 40 percent drop. Of course, if that were to happen we'd be in the midst of a humongous economic crisis, and I'd say all bets are off. A lot would depend on precisely what would have precipitated that kind of a fall. May arctic and antarctic ice melting will cause sea levels to rise several feet by next fall, putting much of NYC (and plenty of other coastal areas) under water, making me unexpectedly appreciative of living in Kansas.

[CK_John]

15. I think it has begun with the banks. but the problem will come when the pension funds start to post

huge losses,like those cities in Florida and Denmark who put funds in hedge funds.

[SheilaT]

17. But I hardly see those things

triggering so huge a drop int he Dow.

I get somewhat weary of apocalyptic predictions.

[CK_John]

18. There was no prediction in the OP. It was an if not X then Y.

[HughMoran]

16. 8000?

Holy pessimistic shit batman!

Things don't have to be nearly that bad - people are already feeling the pinch. $3.30/gal for heating oil? Yikes!

[Kat45]

22. My heating oil bill for last month is $591!!

And I don't even turn my heat up to a warmer temp until night.

[ShaneGR]

19. 8000? 8000? You realize 8000 would be close to a depression?

If the market is 8000 in October of 2008, all hell has broken loose, trillions lost. Anything beneath 10,000 would be incredibly bad news, but 8000? Try mass suicides on for size.

[CK_John]

20. That is what * wants to leave us with. Buy, build or invest in rickshaws. n/t

[dysfunctional press]

21. then i guess we'll have a 50/50 chance, because it isn't going to lose 1/3 of it's value...

before the election.