Anyone else think a 1917 Kerensky scenario is playing out in Pakistan...

[Junkdrawer]

e.g. by waiting too long before Musharaff is replaced, an opening for a more radical revolution is made.

FYI: February Revolution of 1917
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Kerensky

[Junkdrawer]

1. I'm reading Juan Cole, and the Lenin of my scenario is Qadi Hussain Ahmad...

....

Qadi Hussain Ahmad, the leader of the fundamentalist Jamaat-i Islami called Sunday for massive protests against the coup of Gen. Pervez Musharraf. He was speaking to a crowd of 20,000 near the major Punjabi city of Lahore. I just saw Qazi Hussain on Aljazeera condemning Musharraf as a traitor, saying in English, "This is clear treason." The Jamaat-i Islami is still largely a cadre organization rather than a mass movement, though it did win a lot of votes in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and Baluchistan. It has in the past organized demonstrations as big as 80,000 in the southern port of Karachi, though for a city of Karachi's size (9 million), that isn't actually all that impressive. That the Jama'at got 20,000 to rally near Lahore strikes me as a bad sign for Musharraf. What is really significant, however, is that Qazi Hussain is the only major party leader openly calling for mass resistance against Musharraf, a stance which will help the popularity of his party even if (as seems likely) he winds up in jail over it.

....


http://www.juancole.com/

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. The military is playing the role of the "white" counter- revolutioaries.

Unfortunately, the army appears to be sticking with Musharrif. The "reds" are being played by the lawyers and Bhutto. The "militants" are more like what happened in The Vendee in the French Revolution or the Christeros of the Mexican Revolution.

It looks as if it might end in a 3 way civil war.

[Strelnikov_]

3. I do

I more or less alluded to that here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=2209659#2209778

Considering the hard core Islamists, the Bolsheviks were a similar minority. Mushies 'state of emergency' may do for them what the February Revolution did for the Bolsheviks.


IMHO, the geopolitics playing out today are a lot closer to 1910-1914 than 1935-1939, a great game over resources. Old powers will fade, new powers will emerge.

I see the US being in the Czarist Russia/Ottoman Empire role. We will emerge from the resource wars either transformed (but still a world power) sort of like Ottoman Empire->Turkey. Or, will the resource catastrophes to come bring on a complete new order like WW I transformed Czarist Russia.

I see Russia/China/India as being in the France/Britain role. Their world power standing will benefit, but at a high cost. In the end, the US will find itself as one of four or five nearly equal world powers.


The Middle East? Well, they appear to be playing the Balkans role in this great game.