Veepstakes 08: Bayh, Strickland, or Warner?

[CorpGovActivist]

Looking at the 2004 Electoral College map, three red states with double-digit electoral votes stand out to me: Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_presidential_election_2004_map.svg

The reason these three red states really stand out to me is that each has a "favorite son" who would make a strong Veep candidate to help the eventual nominee: Senator (and former Governor) Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor (and former Member of Congress) Ted Strickland of Ohio, and Governor (and current Senate candidate) Mark Warner of Virginia.

A lot of inside baseball talk pegs Bayh as the shoe-in if Senator Clinton wins the nomination. He comes from a popular Indiana political family, he's viewed as a centrist, and he has a long-standing relationship with the Clintons. Regardless of who the eventual nominee is, he's an articulate and telegenic choice. Bayh might be able to parlay his education at the University of Virginia into a viable Virginia voter connection as well. Indiana's 11 electoral votes wouldn't have changed the outcome in 04, but they go a long way toward closing the gap.

Less often mentioned inside the Beltway - but a subject of open speculation in the tristate area of Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia - is Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio. Continuing the red-to-purple-to-blue trend in Ohio that nearly gave Senator Kerry the state in 04, Strickland rode a wave of disaffected GOP voters in Ohio in 2006 to retake the governor's mansion for the Dems for the first time in 16 years. No GOP nominee for President has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Strickland's seminary training and other post-secondary education in Kentucky could make him viable in Upper Appalachia as well (perhaps helping to flip Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia back into the blue column). While it would be risky for Strickland to bail as Ohio's Governor in the middle of his first term to join the national ticket, it's at least worth considering. For more on Ohio's recent purple-to-blue trend: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071103/ap_on_el_pr/ohio_stakes_1;_ylt=AhrHD9NL6AhhWCG8OM0radAE1vAI. At the very least, expect to see Strickland a lot more after the nominee is selected, inside Ohio and also in neighboring states; Ohio's 20 electoral votes would've booted Bush out of office in 04, and the race was heartbreakingly close: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election%2C_2004#Election_results.

Finally, there's former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia, my adopted state. Warner has announced for the open Senate seat that John Warner (no relation) is vacating. All the polling has Warner handily defeating his expected rival, former Governor Jim Gilmore: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008#Polling. Like Governor Strickland, Warner is well-known in wide swaths of the Upper Appalachian states, which are serviced by some of the major Virginia media markets. Unlike Strickland, Warner has completed his term (and successfully handed the corner office over to another Democrat, Tom Kaine). It's a long shot, but if the Democratic presidential nominee is known before the filing deadline for the Senate seat in Virginia, another nominee could be found to defeat Gilmore. Mark Warner could instead be tapped as the Veep nominee (generating statewide excitement for the national ticket AND for his replacement for the open Senate seat). Virginia's 13 electoral votes wouldn't have flipped the 04 race, but would've come awfully close.

Who else did I miss? (I would've included John Edwards of North Carolina, with its 15 electoral votes, but he could still be the nominee.) This really could be the rare race in which the Veep candidate truly matters for Electoral College math purposes. Please look only at double-digit Electoral College states that voted red in 04.

Best,

- Dave

[madinmaryland]

1. Bayh, maybe. The other two are a definate no.

Warner is running for the Senate, and has a very good chance of winning. Strickland has said he is not interested.

[CorpGovActivist]

3. There Are "No's," and Then There Are "No's!"

I agree with you that both Strickland and Warner are long shots, for the reasons cited in the OP. Strickland would risk angering Ohio voters for not even completing a single term as Governor. Warner has a very safe shot at the Senate seat (though some advisors have been telling him that serving even one term in the Senate may actually diminish his appeal for a future Presidential run, and have urged him to keep his options open if he were to get "the call" for Veep, since it would position him perfectly for a future run at the top of the ticket).

Any other red state "favorite son/daughter" that I missed?

- Dave

[cali]

5. I'm not sure it would position Warner perfectly

I think it would long be remembered that he was the man who threw a Senate seat away in order to advance his own career- and that it would come back to haunt him.

[CorpGovActivist]

8. The Scenario...

... that I've heard floated is:

(1) internal polling shows that Warner on the Veep spot of the ticket (regardless of who's at the top) flips Virginia into the blue column for the Presidential race, past the margin of error; and

(2) at least two other candidates could beat Gilmore for the open Senate seat; meaning that

(3) the open Senate seat would not be lost, AND the 13 Electoral College votes slide into the blue column.

By contrast, if Warner says "no" to the Veep spot (if offered), it may be the case that the Senate seat is won safely, but the 13 electoral votes remain red.

He thus runs the downside risk of being resented and remembered for choosing his own career (the safe Senate seat that looked to be his for the taking) over the greater national picture (the Senate seat AND the 13 electoral votes, requiring him to sacrifice the safe seat for himself, and roll the dice as part of the ticket).

- Dave

[...of J.Temperance]

2. Senator Evan Bayh DEFINATELY, is my top choice

Clinton/Bayh would be my ultimate ticket....and I think they'd win the GE as well.

I love Senator Bayh, he's my favorite Senator.

[CorpGovActivist]

4. Why Buy Bayh?

I like him too (I like all three of the candidates I mentioned in my OP, and would gladly vote for any one of them). Any particular reason you like Bayh the best?

- Dave

[...of J.Temperance]

6. Former multiply-elected Governor, currently muliply-elected Senator

I think Senator Bayh has the most experience, both Executive and Legislative....plus he's just a very appealing politician, he's got a lot of talent and is actually very personable....on TV he comes across as a bit wooden, but in person he's very personable.

I should add, that Mark Warner is SO going to win that Virginia Senate seat, so I'd rather have him in The Senate.

Governor Ted Strickland only got elected Governor two years ago....he's not, in my humble opinion therefore got enough experience.


On Edit: Added comment

[CorpGovActivist]

10. Bayh on TV...

... is always better when the first few rows are lined with college students.

He seems to feed off their energy and loosen up. (Gore is the same way.)

- Dave

[UTUSN]

7. Somebody who is going to STREET FIGHT, kick Rethug ass, NOT be "nice" n/t

[...of J.Temperance]

9. Like a....Ninja you mean?

:P :popcorn:

[brazos121200]

11. The 2008 election will be won or lost in these four states:

Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Whoever wins at least three of these four states will win the election, as I see it. These are battleground states won by Clinton in '92 and '96, and won by Bush in '00 and'04. Whoever gets the nomination needs to get a running mate who will be able to help win these states. What about Governor Bredesen of Tennessee? He was recently re-electied with over 70% of the vote, a very popular Democratic Governor in a red state. I also like Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, though he will have only two years of national political experience by '08 and will probably not be considered as a Vice President for that reason.

[Captain Kronos]

12. For VP (regardless who's at the top of the ticket)...

...I'd like to see Gen. Wesley K. Clark, US Army (Ret).

[CorpGovActivist]

15. Funny You Mentioned Clark...

... I double-checked to see where his post-military residence is when writing the OP, to see if he met the "double-digit red state" criteria. His residence is currently in Arkansas, which is a single-digit red state. I almost made an exception on the basis that as a retired military leader, he'd likely play well in multiple red states with large military family concentrations.

- Dave

[brazos121200]

17. Gen. Clark has recently announced he will not be a

candidate for president in '08 and has endorsed Sen. Clinton, so if she is the nominee Clark will be in a very good position to be her running mate. She will definitely need a southerner on the ticket as she will need to carry at least some southern states to have a real chance to win the election, and he will bring a non-political, outsider element to the ticket as well. I didn't mention him in my post because the original poster specified only double-digit red states and Arkansas is a small state, but I definitely think Clark has a real shot at the veep spot if either Hillary or Obama get the nomination.

[CorpGovActivist]

14. I Agree about Border States/Upper Appalachia...

... those states are going to be crucial to cobbling together an Electoral College victory.

Thanks for the heads-up on Governor Bredesen of TN. I wasn't familiar with him.

- Dave

[skipos]

13. Bayh wouldn't win IN

NC elected Edwards, and he didn't win it as VP

MA elected Mitt, and he won't win it if he is nominated. Edwards didn't win NC. Even if Bayh is very popular in IN, some states are too red or too blue for the other party to flip. Presidential candidates can get about a 10% boost in their homeststate, VPs @5%. North Carolina is less red than Indiana, and it was still too red for Edwards to flip it.

NC '88: Bush (57.97 - 41.71) = + 8.54% Republican
NC '92: Bush (43.44 - 42.65) = + 6.35% Republican
NC '96: Dole (48.73 - 44.04) = + 13.22% Republican
NC '00: Bush (56.03 - 43.20) = + 13.34% Republican
NC '04: Bush (56.02 - 43.58) = + 9.98% Republican (see the Edward boost?)


IN '88: Bush (59.84 - 39.69) = + 12.43% Republican
IN '92: Bush (42.91 - 36.79) = + 11.68% Republican
IN '96: Dole (47.13 - 41.55) = + 14.11% Republican
IN '00: Bush (56.65 - 41.01) = + 16.15% Republican
IN '04: Bush (59.94 - 39.26) = + 18.22% Republican

Not only would Bayh not win IN as a VP, I don't think he would win it even as a Presidential candidate.

I posted this in another thread btw.

[CorpGovActivist]

16. Interesting Analysis...

... which red state(s) do you think is most likely to flip in 08? I have high hopes for Ohio and Virginia.

- Dave

[skipos]

19. Here is way more info than what you asked for

Here is the same partisan bias of the last 5 elections ranging from bluest reddest...
Any * state is one that would be nice to have represented on the Dem ticket.

STRONG DEM (183 electoral votes, we shouldn't have to worry about these)
District of Columbia: 77d, 70d, 67d, 76d, 82d
Massachusetts: 16d (Dukakis P), 13d, 25d, 27d, 28d (Kerry P)
Rhode Island: 19d, 12d, 24d, 29d, 23d
Vermont: 4d, 10d, 14d, 9d, 23d
New York: 12d, 10d, 20d (Kemp VP, Congressmen don't get much of a "favorite son" bump) 24d, 21d
Maryland: 5d, 9d, 7d, 16d, 15d
Connecticut: 3d, 1d, 10d, 17d (Lieberman VP) 13d
Illinois: 6d, 9d, 9d, 12d, 13d
California: 4d, 8d, 4d, 11d, 12d
Maine: 4d, 3d, 12d, 5d, 11d
Hawaii: 17d, 6d, 17d, 18d, 11d
Delaware: 5r, 3d, 7d, 13d, 10d
Washington: 9d, 6d, 4d, 5d, 10d
New Jersey: 6r, 3r, 9d, 15d, 10d

LIKELY DEM (49 electoral votes)
Michigan: 1r, 2d, 5d, 5d, 6d - trending blue, shouldn't be a problem
Pennsylvania: 5d, 4d, 1d, 4d, 5d - trending blue, shouldn't be a problem
*Oregon: 12d, 4d, 1r, 1r, 7d - was trending red and reversed that, problem?
*Minnesota: 15d, 6d, 8d, 2d, 6d - was trending red and reversed that, problem?

WEAK DEM (14 electoral votes)
*New Hampshire: 19r, 4r, 1r, 2r, 4d - trending blue, shouldn't be a problem
*Wisconsin: 11d, 1r, 2d, 1r, 3d - a true swing state

WEAK REP (12 electoral votes)
*Iowa: 18d, 1d, 2d, 1r, 2D - a true swing state
*New Mexico: 3d, 3d, 1r, 1r, 2D - a true swing state

WEAK REP, TRENDING DEM (14 electoral votes)
*Nevada: 13r, 3r, 8r, 4r, 1r
*Colorado: 1r, 1r, 10r, 9r, 3r

LIKELY REP, TRENDING DEM (13 electoral votes)
*Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r - a Dem VP or P candidate from here could flip it

LIKELY REP( 74 electoral votes)
*Florida: 15r, 8r, 3r, 1r, 3r
*Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
*Missouri: 4d, 5d, 2r, 4r, 5r
*Arkansas: 6r, 12d(Clinton P), 8d (Clinton P), 6r, 7r
*Arizona: 13r, 8r, 6r, 7r, 8r

STRONG REP (167 electoral votes)
North Carolina: 9r, 6r, 13r, 13r, 10r (Edwards VP)
West Virginia: 12d, 7d, 6d, 7r, 10r
Tennessee: 9r, 1r (Gore VP) 6r (Gore VP) 4r (Gore P) 12r
Louisiana: 2r, 1r, 4d, 8r, 12r
Georgia: 13r, 5r, 10r, 12r, 14r
South Carolina: 16r, 14r, 14r, 16r, 15r
Mississippi: 13r, 14r, 14r, 17r, 17r
Kentucky: 4r, 2r, 8r, 16r, 17r
Montana: 2d, 3r, 11r, 26r, 18r
Indiana: 12r (Quayle VP), 12r (Quayle VP), 14r, 16r, 18r
South Dakota: 1d,9r, 12r, 23r, 19r
Texas: 5r (HW Bush P, Bentsen VP) 10r (HW Bush P) 13r, 22r (Bush P), 20r (Bush P)
Kansas: 6r, 11r, 27r (Dole P) 21r 23r
Alaska: 16r, 15r, 26r, 31r, 23r
Alabama: 12r, 12r, 15r, 15r, 23r
North Dakota: 5r, 18r, 15r, 28r, 25r
Oklahoma: 9r, 14r, 16r, 22r, 29r
Nebraska: 13r, 23r, 27r, 30r, 30r
Idaho: 18r, 19r, 27r, 40r, 36r
Wyoming: 15r, 11r, 22r, 41r (Cheney VP), 37r (Cheney VP)
Utah: 26r, 24r, 30r, 41r, 43r

[brazos121200]

18. The most likely red state pickups for a strong

Democratic ticket in '08 would be states like Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, West Virginia, Virginia, Ohio, Arkansas,and Florida. Louisiana is probably no longer in contention for the Democrats because of the ethnic cleansing perpetrated by the Repubs there after Katrina. I think the Democratic ticket will pick up all of Kerry's states plus a majority of these states. I'm afraid Indiana is a hopeless case, although they DID elect two new Democratic Congressmen last year, so maybe something is stirring even in Indiana.

[FyurFly]

20. Jim Webb n/t

[Perky]

21. Will not be Warner. I doubt it would be Bayh

Warner is the obvious choicemaking a swing state into a locked blue state. but he is running for VP and you can not do both.

Bayh might make sense on the SUrface and he is poplular in his home state...but it is Indiana and it's Deep Red. It is porssible,, but not guarantee to be a pick up state.