"New California Poll: Hillary's "Negative Drag" ... LINK

[Blackhatjack]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/01/new-california-poll-hill_n_70775.html

New California Poll: Hillary's "Negative Drag'
November 1, 2007 01:25 PM

"A new California Field Poll released todays warns, in the words of its director, that while Hillary Clinton stills leads widely among Democratic presidential contenders she has nevertheless accumulated a "negatve drag" of voters who absolutely will not support her.

While one third of California voters say they would "definitely" vote for Clinton, a near equal number say they have already made up their minds that they won't. No other major Democratic candidate, according to the poll, evokes such intense polarization. According to the poll, 48 percent of California voters said they have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton, with 39 percent having an unfavorable view.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said the survey showed "there's really been a solidification of voter opinions on Hillary" and what he called "a negative drag" unique in the presidential race - the solid third who don't like her, won't support her and see her negatively.

"Judging from the length of time we've seen the same proportions, I don't think there's a high probability they will change their minds," he said... She almost has to write off at least a third of the voters who are unlikely to vote for her," DiCamillo said. "No other candidates have this kind of solidification of negative votes."

MORE

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. I hate to point this out but this follows HISTORICAL patterns

for early leaders.

Now reaching for my nomex...

[Blackhatjack]

2. Can you provide us with a link that proves your point? THanks. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. They have been provided in the past but let me see

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Here is but one example

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/primaries/sr_technology_history.html

And looking for a particularly good article that was posted on DU

On edit I will also offer the History of Governor Dean as the most recent... he was leading... but did not get it

McCain in 2000, led early on...

And so on

Oh and Clinton and Carter did not register with voters until the primaries

[Blackhatjack]

8. I misunderstood your point .. I thought you were addressing negative voting blocks

I am well aware of frontrunners who have wilted.

However the point of the OP was that there is a well-defined 'negative' voting block that will not vote for Clinton in Calif according to this field poll, and they are not open to changing their minds.

As a strategist, you are always concerned with knitting together different voting blocks to form a coalition of likely voters who will help you reach the required % to elect your candidate. The existence of a voting block that is negative toward your client candidate means you have to compensate with a higher percentage of the remaining voters --realizing that you start with having to neutralize the likely negative voters before you can put votes in your column to help you reach the % you need.

Clinton can win, but she will have to overcome the entrenched 'negative voting blocks' to do so which another Democratic Nominee might not have to face.

[Trajan]

4. Considering about 35 % of all americans are wild eyed Bushites ....

It sounds like Senator Clinton is actually doing quite well among GOP Moderates and Independents .....

Perhaps we should note that The Fratboy Prince won even though he lost 50 % of the vote .......

Go Figure ....

[pnwmom]

5. At least that many voters hated Bush by 2004, and fewer liked him.

Lots of people hated Bill Clinton, too, but the key was that more liked him.

[AndyTiedye]

9. The Voting Machinez Liked Bush**

[Blackhatjack]

6. "intense polarization" may be the most important finding here...

[pnwmom]

10. Wasn't Bill Clinton also intensely polarizing?

As I recall, the more the Rethugs loathed him, the higher went his popularity ratings as well.

[aquart]

11. Indeed they did.

And every day that passes makes the Clinton era seem more and more like a Golden Age.

[Tesha]

15. Yeah DOMA, NAFTA, internet stock bubbles, impeachment ON the table, damn those times were good! (NT)

[still_one]

12. That is true, but the right wing hate machine has filtered toward non-rethugs

and propagating it through the MSM who have been playing the message how Hillary will tax the hell out of you or how her healthcare plan in the 90's was so "evil" , though they cannot name specifics

I believe if you ask the non-rethugs who say they won't vote for Hillary, they will give you non-specific reasons, though my gut tells me in the majority of the cases it is because they do not like strong women, the misrepresentation that the MSM has painted throughout the 90's to the present about her, will be a very tough goal to overcome.

They do it in very subtle ways. Today on Bloomberg, I saw some jerk, Garndner Associates I believe, saying that he will have a lot of sleepless nights if Hillary wins, because the market will crash, higher taxes, blah, blah, blah

It could have been pointed out that the market did quite will under Bill Clinton, AND the deficeit was reduced, but that never occurred to the questioner. In fact, the historical record shows that stock markets do much better under Democrats than republicans. How quickly we forget the reagan years, the S&L crisis. Hoover presided over the 1929 stock market crash, and of course bush is presiding over the credit debacle. Funny how when the repukes take over, they try to get rid of controls, safeguards, and regulations, and then everything hits the fan

I am not a real fan of Hillary, but will vote for her if she is the nominee. However, unless she starts to directly answer questions, instead of sound bites, that will cause problems.

[Rydz777]

13. Sure, Hillary is polarizing. The whole country is polarized big

time. The chance that any candidate will "bring this country together" is zilch.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Could You Be More Disingenuous?

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2244.pdf

Scroll down to Table Four, Page Five:




http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=018d379b-73f4-422c-ac13-d3f8d5a29227

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. She's Killing Us

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102481/Public-Gives-Clinton-Best-Odds-Being-Elected-President.aspx#3

LOL