There are some reports that we are sharing some information

[Joe for Clark]

with Turkey about rebel groups - do you know how much bullshit this really is??

Look - Turkey understands full well - if or when they do invade, and I don't see how else they could ever nuetralize a guerilla force with out feet on the ground - they are looking at the probable - like almost certain movements of regular Kurdish forces to oppose an invasion - you see, to really give Turkey information they really want - we have to sell out a "soverign" Iraq - give them the information on Kurdish Iraqi troops that are largely covering the oil fields near Kirkuk - that simple.

If this crap goes forward in Turkey - it will create a power vaccum near those fields - to the extent Kurd regulars move north to oppose Turkey - we are screwed either way.

Stand with NATO - create the vaccum - Stand with the Kurds and destroy the NATO alliance. Invite real trouble from the Arab ethnics to the south if you back Turkey. Screw Iraq if you don't. Talk about a no win situation.

Joe

[mike_c]

1. the U.S. entered a "no-win situation" in Iraq on March 20, 2003....

It's been pretty much downhill from there.

[Joe for Clark]

4. That is surely right - this series of unintended consequences.

That is what happens when you put too many weapons in proximity to each other.

Didn't Kennedy say that??

Joe

[Joe for Clark]

2. I forgot - if we did nothing and this goes forward -

we would have to cover those oil fields one way or another - you know, those positions Kurd regulars are now protecting - you think Tureky might see that as passive approval for the Kurds - given our approval ratings right now in Turkey, I think we can count on it. We would have just covered the ground that was supposed to be held by regulars and freed them -as they would certainly see it - to fight Turkey, which in truth we would be doing.

[EFerrari]

3. Bushco thinks they can play both sides against the middle

when they can't chew gum and walk at the same time. I agree: no win for us or anyone.

[Joe for Clark]

5. His stupidity is extremely dangerous.

If or not he committed a crime in a technical way - he needs to be impeached - he has put this country in extreme danger. That is treason to me.

Joe

[14thColony]

6. Yes, and we have been for a while

I am one of the people who have been doing the sharing. It has been going on for a few years now, and the whole purpose was to placate the Turks that we were doing the best we could to help them with their guerrilla problem, while desperately hoping we could stave off any actual incursion by them into Iraq (which wouldn't be the first time for them anyway).

A lot of people are mixing apples and oranges on this issue, by the way. Kongra Gel (ex-PKK) is not made up of Iraqi Kurds (PUK and KDP), is not co-located with the Iraqi Kurds, and is nowhere near the Kirkuk oil fields. Their camps are close to the border in the very inhospitable and very remote Kandil and Kara mountain ranges of the extreme north, where there are precious few Iraqi Kurds living. And despite all their talk, the Iraqi Kurds couldn't care less about Kongra Gel. In fact they've fought them in the past - the KDP even sided with the Turks AGAINST the Kongra Gel the last time the Turks rolled across the border. If the Turkish Army does an operation no larger than their 1999 campaign (40,000 troops, tanks, artillery, etc) - most of the Iraqi Kurds well to the south won't even know it's happening expect on the news. Not that it'll solve the problem. Turkey has been across the border in three large and several small operations over the last 12 years, and yet Kongra Gel is as tip-top as ever. Turkey is frustrated as hell right now though, and the government needs to show the people they're doing something. Meanwhile a large guerilla army gets to run cross-border attacks against Turkey at their leisure, and escape back to the safe haven we've inadvertently created for them in northern Iraq. There are no good guys in this one, to be sure (Turkey's harsh decades-long anti-Kurd policies effectively created the old PKK) but realpolitik stongly favors the Turkish position. Of course now that winter's coming to the mountains, the 'invasion' is probably off the table until next spring. 20 ft snow drifts kinda make it hard to do anything fast in that area.

[Joe for Clark]

7. I'll say this - they are probably both right you know.

The Kurds and the Turks - probably are, ancient tribal disputes vrs forced borders/ 20th century boundries - I don't take sides about right and wrong on merits.

I am saying CLEARLY - in the face of any invading army - any - there is no doubt about the populace rising - at all.

At every point in history - regardless of the polical landscape - the populace rises to repell invaders.

I know something about the north there - and not cause I wanted to- more like forced on me by circumstance - They will repell. And that is what is really scary.

Joe

[14thColony]

12. But they didn't rise against the Turks from 1997 to 1999

...during the previous Turkish interventions. In fact KDP Peshmerga units fought alongside the Turkish Army in rooting out the PKK. Here's another major factor influencing the Iraqi Kurds: nearly $5 billion out of the $6 billion in new investment in northern Iraq has been courtesy of Turkish companies, and nearly 400 out of the 500 foreign companies in Kurdish Irbil are Turkish. The brand new airports in Irbil and Sulaymaniya are Turkish-built, to the tune of about $650 million. And the list goes on. That's a lot of investment to lose when a) the Iraqi Kurds couldn't care less about the Kongra Gel/PKK anyway, b) most Iraqi Kurds and all Kurdish assets and infrastucture will be well out of harm's way, and c) they've never had a problem with it in the past. Kurds are nothing if not realists. They will talk a lot and do very little as long as they see no threat to their own interests. Not good for business to do otherwise. Yes, if the Turks make a grab for Kirkuk or something like that, all hell will break loose and I would not be surprised to see the KDP, PUK, and Kongra Gel/PKK all allied to fight the Turks to the death. That might be what the Kongra Gel are trying to provoke by ramping up the guerrilla attacks in southeastern Turkey. But Turkey won't over-reach like that over just the Kongra Gel.

And to comment on your response; yes, I agree - both Turkey and the Turkish Kurd minority have legitimate grievances, and there is guilt on both sides. A sad situation really.

PS, for those not familiar with it, this group started as PKK then became KADEK, then became Kongra Gele Kurdistan (Kongra Gel or KGK), then KKK (no kidding) now toying with KCK. They must spend more $$$ on new letterhead than on bullets.

[Joe for Clark]

13. That is true - then again - a lot of people lost a lot of money

today betting on the wrong horse - isn't it just capitalism?

Problem for us is - we weren't there then, were we?? Now we are.

I don't care how they solve their problems - I just don't want us in the middle of them.

I make this cold judgement - the rebels there, they don't believe anything the general populace doesn't believe- they are just the militant arm.

It is true - and it will be especially true in the face of an invading army. What would you do if even Canada attacked us?? ( far out example isn't it) what would you do?? Cause that is what they will do - hell, they even believe in it!

Joe

[H2O Man]

8. It's a time bomb.

I think it is one of the most potentially dangerous situations today.

[Joe for Clark]

9. I am frightened - if there was any other president - I think I

wouldn't be - but this guy - he is scary. He proves what he doesn't know in blood - our blood.

Joe

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

10. I still think dickwad made a deal to get Turkey to allow operations.

The neocons ACT like they care about the Kurds but, you and I know damn well they do not care about anyone other than their corporacrats.

Of course, I could be wrong, have been wrong.

But, if you think about it (the way dickwad thinks), making an oil deal with the Turks serves two purposes: get an integral base of operation for the expanding war in the M.E. AAAAAND guarantee an expansion of war in the M.E.

Voila'

All out war "our children will sing about".

UGH!!!

I don't hate people. I feel something right on the heals of hatred about dickwad. If he ever sees justice, I'd still advocate against the death sentence for him, though. I'd rather he spent the rest of his life confined.

[Joe for Clark]

11. Then they would have to give Iraqi oil to Turkey -

Think that one is in the cards?? I do understnad what you are saying.

Joe

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

14. Turkey is a NATO ally (so to speak) and willing to control the flow.

The Kurds want possession of their resources.

Oil companies only make money when the flow is controlled.

It's a fact.

Am I making sense?

[Joe for Clark]

15. No - the Kurds think Turkey took their land -

And they want it back.

This is about oil to us - not to them.

It is a problem.

Joe

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

16. Are we talking across each other? *shrug*

'kay.

At the Bushco invasion, the Turkish government nearly lost order over its people until it denied, by Parliamentarian Order, the U.S.A. access to its country as a "ground" for military invasion of Iraq. So, Turkey "officially" stated the U.S. could not USE its country for such purposes.

Sometime, thereafter, the U.S. made a deal, quietly, without disturbing the masses. CLEARLY, whatever the deal, the U.S. HAS GAINED THE MILITARY ACCESS TO IRAQ IT COULD NOT ACQUIRE PRE-OCCUPATION.

So, what I am proposing within the spirit of dickwad is this: Turkey was guaranteed a piece of either the oil or the territory in exchange for U.S. military access.

Dickwad gets a 2FER: U.S. military access and expansion of the profiteering venture (btw he's a SUPPLY artist,...wants control over SUPPLY *hint hint*).

Am I making sense to you, yet?

[Joe for Clark]

17. We just got air space really -

You think he gave oil for that?

Agree to disagree here.

Joe

[kickysnana]

18. We promised Saddam Kuwaiti oil fields why is this so hard to imagine? n/t