they shouldn't rebuild--they know it's going to burn again.

[MindPilot]

I'm seeing this comment with considerable frequency. So please let me explain that it is not that easy. You have a mortgage based on the market value of a piece of property with a house on it. Part of the contract with the lender is that you will maintain the value of that property. Having insurance is part of that. If the house is destroyed, the insurance does not pay you the value of the house just before it was destroyed, they pay to have it rebuilt, which is a big difference. My 800,000 house would cost about 250,000 to rebuild. So the bottom line is that most people have no choice. Even if you own the house free and clear, you still own the property and couldn't legally just walk away from a pile of ashes in a vacant lot.

[Elspeth]

1. Thanks, Mindpilot

How are you tonight?

[MindPilot]

12. Doing fine, thanks. You?

I think the smoke is beginning to get to me, though. Hoping I can go to work tomorrow; I work in RB.

[Elspeth]

41. Better. Is your workplace still open?

RB still seems to be under evacuation.

[soothsayer]

2. Ah, makes total sense.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. au contraire. they have a great opportunity

building green, building efficiency the likes of which we have never seen, and building with fire danger in mind. Some rezoning will be necessary. We are talking about changing the interface between humans and earth. Get rid of half the roads, build effective public transport, turn megamalls and mega parking into something that protects the environment, rather than making the situation worse. It can be done. it will take time and effort.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. And getting rid of half the board of supervisors and twisting the arms

of the other half.

This place ain't that red, the power structure is, on the other hand

They will fight you in the hills and on the beaches

God, they fought the fire resistant shingles, never mind that has saved houses

And trust me, Mr Bell has been fighitng that fight LONG.

[Liberty Belle]

50. Can someone design a new bumper sticker for San Diegans?

"Burned up? Fire the Supervisors!"

with flames shooting up, please.

[Mountainman]

6. It is a hell of a lot easier to think and post those thoughts then it is to make them happen.

You would have to be the same as Bush declaring marshal law to get what he wants to get what you want. You would have to declare marshal law. Take away people's property. Turn them out onto the street, they'd lose their jobs and then what do you do?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

15. taint easy. I know. what choice do the have?

I suspect that SoCal will get another unpleasant shock, of a financial disorder. Think NOLA, and think of all the property insurers who saw what FEMA was doing, saw the lousy pumps they bought, and the bad job they were doing on the storm walls. and what did they do? THEY LEFT NOLA en masse.

The same thing will happen to SoCal, not because they are evil (they are), or mean (they are), but because their profits matter more than anything else. They cannot afford a second fire, so they won't write business there. Period. UNless a new plan is provided, one that deals with all threats. Water, transport, drought, fire.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Cedar fire, been there, done that

the legislature passed some laws

So in the end it will be like flood insurance, and the state canot afford it

That will be the only thing to force the developers off their dictats

[MindPilot]

20. Every time there's a wildfire, insurance companies threaten to pull out

There will be at least one who will proudly announce they will will no long write policies in CA. A year or so later, they will realize that they just blew off the eighth largest economy in the world, and quietly return.

[Mojorabbit]

56. They sure left florida

it is a mess.

[kineneb]

23. haven't dealt with a planning commission or permiting agency

recently, have you? nice idea, no cigar/chocolates/cookies.

We are talking years, if not decades to make code changes like that. The world of city/county planning bureaucracy moves at a glacial speed, if at all. I have plenty of examples in my own county of only 65,000. Just think what happens in a high-population county/city...

[ChairmanAgnostic]

34. I do and have locally. and believe me,

I do not underestimate the task.

But when you have should widespread destruction, it seems ripe for fixing underlying problems and start with a better plan, no?

[Glorfindel]

5. Just as the people in New Orleans shouldn't and the Gulf Coast

residents of Mississippi shouldn't. We all know floods and hurricanes are coming, don't we? No place on earth is immune to natural disaster.

[tuckessee]

7. I'd really like to know

..the breakdown in age of the structures that were destroyed.

What percentage were built within the last 1 year, 5 years, 10 years & so on.

[MindPilot]

11. I'm going to take a happy guess just from knowing the neighborhoods

I would say a majority of the destroyed homes were in the 10-20+ year range.

[frylock]

8. hey man..

hope you and JB are well. peace.

[MagickMuffin]

9. You raise a lot of valid points

I was just talking about this earlier with my hubby, and thought about building houses that prohibit the use of lumber.

It can be done and the houses are unique and beautiful. Check out the images below for an idea on what SD could look like. (Sorry I didn't want to use my flickr account, to post and they made the copy/paste a link)





Check out some of these structures being built in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico.

http://geocities.com/flyingconcrete/

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. Several things

you would have to have massive changes in the building code

concrete can be safe in quakes, but not always (that is why they use wood... not that it stops the damage)

You have to change how folks think about construction

it actually increases the material cost

Granted, those houses are better at staying cool in the summer, but there are changes that have to happen

Not that it could not be done... but... I can see the fisttocuffs

[MindPilot]

19. My first thought when I looked at the pix was

There's not an HOA on earth that would allow that!

[tridim]

47. Exactly, I used to be an architect and it's impossible to get anything..

that involves creativity through the legal system. It's one of the reasons I left the profession. HOA's love cookie-cutter homes and developers love box shaped retail structures with foam exteriors.

[MagickMuffin]

26. I realize there would have to be a considerable amount of restructuring of codes

and all that goes with it. But I think its about time we start moving away from using so much lumber in the construction of houses. We have the technology to move forward with better building materials. And to think about preserving our forest for our survival of renewed oxygen for us to breath is a better concept, than to chop down our forest for housing.

If people could be convinced about how cool a fly crete home would be to live in. Jetsons meet the Flintstones!

I also realize there would be fisticuffs, but perhaps someone could explain trees are for fresh air for us while cutting them down to build houses only serves the people living in them.
There are just so many new ways to approach the way in which homes are built. I just wish other people had the foresight.

[snooper2]

60. Fire, Flood, Quake; Monolithic Dome is the choice

California Residents Seek Disaster-Safe Home After Destructive Fires

http://www.monolithic.com/domenews/2005/snake-rock.html

Barry and Susan McDermid owned a Geodesic dome which burned in the 2003 southern California wildfires. After that experience they have been researching Monolithic Domes. Sold on the idea, they are now building a beautiful dome home located next to Cuyamaca State Park, just one hour from San Diego. The view from the home is spectacular. On a clear day the ocean and mountains are visible. The exterior is a chain-shell concrete coating offering an organic feel which is somewhat representative of the natives' mud huts in South Africa where they both grew up.

No Damage Whatsoever
Louise and DeWayne Nettles of Brookhaven, Mississippi rode out Hurricane Katrina in their dome home. But they weren't alone. Several neighbors also stayed in the dome during the storm. She said, "We couldn't even hear the wind. We really love our dome. We received no damage whatsoever."

http://www.monolithic.com/domenews/2005/katrina.html

Dome of a Home and Katrina
September 13, 2005

Dome of a Home, in Pensacola Beach, Florida, did it again! This 70' x 54', luxurious, beachfront property that is the home of Valerie and Mark Sigler, as well as a bed and breakfast, has survived its third serious hurricane in a year.

[MagickMuffin]

63. I had the pleasure of touring the mono domes in Italy, Texas

The ones at the company had looked kinda of hideous, but from the looks of the pic, it looks a whole lot more like the house I would love to live in.

And I have heard some of the stories about people turning to dome homes after natural disasters. HOA's should look into how to best serve the people who live within their communities, instead of being part of the problem they need to be part of the solution.

[tuckessee]

13. I wonder how straw bale would work.

It's a pretty dry climate so it might be ideal.

[MagickMuffin]

21. There was a program on PBS in my area called Building Green

that featured a house being constructed out of Straw Bale. It was being built in Santa Barbara.

Here's a link where they have videos as well as other info about building green.

http://www.buildinggreentv.com/

It was an interesting show. I have been familiar with straw bale, recycled tires as in Earthships, and other ways to building houses that don't require a lot of lumber.
My father built custom homes, but they were very traditional type structures. I spent several years having to help with construction.

And now with all the new innovated ways to build homes just makes me wish I could have some property to build some kind of a different type of house. Living in a boxed structure all my life makes me feel all boxed in.

[kineneb]

27. unlikely in urban areas

that building is probably (since I didn't check the site) not in an incorporated area, and even then, buildings from alternative construction techniques have to approved on a case-by-case basis. Not easy, depending on location.

Also realize that a building that burns in a fire may much safer in an earthquake... much easier to rebuild after fire than try to dig bodies out of brick buildings (or other solid wall construction), better to lose house and contents in a fire than to lose house, contents and inhabitants in earthquake... have choice: build fire-resistant housing or earthquake-resistant housing, can't really have both at a reasonable price

[tuckessee]

31. Thanks for the link! Great stuff. n/t

[here_is_to_hope]

52. Straw bale rocks!

No question, insulation value of R90 out of a three tie bale!
Poke around on google for strawbale homes in Nebraska during the 1800's.

[Liberty Belle]

57. Just toured a straw bale home in the fire area (before the fire)

They were touting it as firesafe, because bales are packed tightly into very thick walls. Would be interesting to know if it survived the blaze.

[here_is_to_hope]

46. Concrete is very energy

consuming to make. When we built our strawbale house, I learned about the energy consumption to produce it after looking into different recipes for stucco.
We ended up going with a recipe the Romans used.

[joshcryer]

14. As if it'd burn again for hundreds of years.

Geez, once this fire is out there won't be one in this same area for a long time. It's turning a forest into grassland.

[daninthemoon]

25. Actually, not in these areas. These are not forest, and are too dry

for grassland. The foothills are chaparral brush, which uses fire as part of it's life cycle. Every few years, they burn, new shrubs grow back, suffer another dry year or two, Santa Ana hits, and they burn again. Always been that way. Always will.

[girl gone mad]

30. It happens every few years.

Often in the same exact neighborhoods. I was just watching an interview with a man whose house burned down in the 2003 fire. They just finished rebuilding this week, only to be evacuated.

[silverojo]

16. All legal reasons aside....

If people were to just walk away from any home that sits in a potential natural disaster area, the USA would look pretty barren.

[msongs]

17. many of these houses did not have defensible space, leading to their demise....

being a regular visitor in north san diego county, and in the lake arrowhead area, it was obvious that in many thousands of these homes in these areas, the owners did little or nothing to clear back brush, vegetation, etc, or replace wood fences with metals, and many other similar items. While a huge windstorm can make these defensive measures less effective, in many cases a bit of prevention could have eliminated some losses.

Cutting back trees so they are away from the house gets rid of that nice shady space we like so much, but a tree overhanging a roof, with shrubs beneath the windows right up against the house, and a lovely wood fence leading right up to your patio cover or deck, is an invitation for fire to leap right onto your house.

My friends who live in Running Springs understand the price they might pay to have those tall piney woods encroaching their house. they think its worth it to live there. But they cut back close trees and have bare dirt with no shrubs near the house. They've even cleaned up the carpet of pine needles so there is no trail to lead to the house. In their case the fire blew through the crowns of the pines and did not come down to ground or house level.

Msongs

[girl gone mad]

22. Thanks for the clear, calm explanation.

You are right that people can't pack up and leave.

I think the region has been massively overdeveloped, but there don't seem to be any good options now. Insurance rates will go up, and middle class will struggle even more to keep their homes. Taxes will have to be raised to pay for more fire trucks and helicopters, but who's taxes will they raise?

[TahitiNut]

24. I was just thinking about where they'll get the construction labor to rebuild so many homes.

:evilgrin:

[Liberty Belle]

58. Let's hope KBR & Halliburton don't get the rebuilding contracts

like in NO.

[ecstatic]

28. Fires aside, what about the earthquakes

Isn't a big one supposed to be coming soon?

[QueenOfCalifornia]

29. The property here in San Diego

is what we are all mostly paying for. I am in the same situation as you MindPilot. Hope you are safe.

[begin_within]

32. If they rebuild, they should make it as fire-resistant as possible.

Tile roof only, stucco walls, as little exposed wood as possible, and landscaping with fire in mind - 100-foot "defensible space" in all directions.

[ShaneGR]

33. Whats left to burn? THERE IS NO TIMBER LEFT

Just thought I'd point that out.

[OnionPatch]

37. That was my first thought.

Once a certain area is burned, it usually doesn't burn again for a long while because the brush and dead wood is gone.

There are hazards involved in living on planet Earth. Someone show me a place where I'll never have to worry about Mother Nature and her natural disasters. I'm guessing they are few an far between if they exist at all.

[daninthemoon]

38. It's not timber. These foothills are semi arid chapparal country.

That's one reason they were developed only recently, within the last twenty years. The chapparal burns every few years as part of it's natural cycle. It will have no problem growing back with just a bit of rain (which will also bring mudslides to these hills).
They will then dry out to "tinder" status, another Santa Ana will hit, and they will burn again. This is not the entire state, or even most of So Cal, but some of these areas are not habitable even for a ten or twenty year stretch.

[uppityperson]

45. Brush grows back. eom

[shadowknows69]

35. In the long term I somewhat agree with that statement

and obviously it's not easy to rebuild anywhere, and I suspect many people simply decide to relocate due to fear and bad memories. If a certain area of this country is shown over time to have a consistent pattern that scientists can model then eventually people are going to have to uproot. As was said by another poster I think, the insurance companies themselves will most likely force such an exodus on people before anything else.

[LWolf]

36. One question:

Why can I not, as long as I clean up what's left, choose not to rebuild on my land, if I own it free and clear?

What law says I have to put another building there?


The "shouldn't rebuild" idea, of course, is problematic from many directions. I'm not arguing that one.

[MindPilot]

62. Zoning regs and HOA rules, but even without those it doesn't make sense

The rules will vary widely from area to area, but even if you did choose to not rebuild, you still own the piece of land and are responsible for maintaining it. You spend several thousand dollars having the debris removed and the utilities secured and you now own a vacant lot on which you would still have to carry liability insurance. (OK. You don't *have* to, but it is virtually guaranteed that someone will get hurt on your vacant lot and sue you.) So really, why would you do that? If you want to get away from the threat of wildfire, rebuild, sell and move to where some other natural disaster is a threat.

[LWolf]

66. In this context,

it's the obvious choice, of course.

I'm just one of those people that doesn't want to be told what to do, lol.

[Virginia Dare]

39. I don't blame the property owners..

but I will place blame on the greedy developers and the politicians who enable them for building suburbs in areas that can sustain development. It's happening all over the country. They've built entire NEIGHBORHOODS of million dollar mansions on sand dunes all up and down the east coast. It's crazy.

[daninthemoon]

40. Absolutely!

[The Stranger]

42. Are the insurance companies going to fuck them too?

That is the real question.

[Virginia Dare]

49. Is the sky blue, is the grass green?

insurance companies are already scrambling to slough off customers in high risk areas. They see the effects of global warming looming, and they certainly aren't going to be around to pay for it. Hmmm, I wonder who will get stuck with the bill?

[The Stranger]

55. Agreed, although if the homeowners have resources, the insurance companies may get a fight.

Rich people suing their insurance companies. Then realizing the insurance companies they are supporting politically is fucking them.

Life is good.

[Virginia Dare]

59. Except, my guess is that in the end..

the rich will pay proportionately less than the rest of us once the tab starts mounting.

[The Stranger]

61. Probably true, but they can be recruited in the fight against the corporations.

Divide and conquer, my friend.

[Imagevision]

43. Come December/January all they have to be concerned with will be the mudslides...

[babylonsister]

44. Rec'd. Shades of Katrina victims, no? nt

[Liberty Belle]

48. There is NO safe place in this entire County. Should San Diego just be wiped off the map?

This attitude is callous. It's not just people in back country brushy canyons who lost homes. Losses ranged from mobile homes in small towns to mansions in San Diego's richest neighborhoods. Evacuations were made even in Del Mar and Solana Beach, all the way to the ocean! Hardly areas one would expect to be wildfire hazard zones.

Should we just tell the entire Midwest not to rebuild after a tornado?

Or the entire Gulf region not to rebuild after Katrina?

It's one thing to say don't build on the San Andreas fault. But no place is without some risk.

Better to direct your anger at elected officials who failed on many levels to provide the resources needed to prevent these fires or control them in the early stages. San Diego's board of supervisors consists 100% of Republicans. Our Governor is a Republican who ignored his own fire safety commission's recommendations. East County, where the fires started, is represented by Republican Duncan Hunter. There is much that all of them could have done, but didn't.

Our Dem Senators, Boxer and Feinstein, have tried to get more fire prevention help from the feds but were ignored.

[Virginia Dare]

54. Precisely, the time to think about these things is not AFTER the fact..

that's the good old repub way though, and then you claim "nobody could have foreseen.....(such and such disaster)...

[uppityperson]

51. Good post, k&r

Everywhere has issues, nowhere is safe, build the best you can for the place you are. Fire, floods, tornadoes, winds, landslides, ice, etc etc etc.

Good summary of WHY people rebuild, of how insurance scam works. The "don't rebuild, it'll just burn again" people annoy me also.

[barbtries]

53. my cousins live in malibu

in 1960 their home burned to the ground. they rebuilt, and have dodged all of the numerous fires that have threatened their home over the past 40+ years. i spoke to them two mornings ago? yeah, on monday. they were 10 miles from the flames and knew it might get worse before it got better.

why do they? because they LOVE where they live. their eyes are open but they wouldn't live anywhere else. i have heard others express the same sentiment.

people rebuild in FL and we all know there will be more catastrophic hurricanes touching down there...people rebuild after earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, you name it. the only natural disaster that puts people out and keeps them out that i can think of is volcanic flow.

then there's the bush administration: keeping hurricane katrina survivors from being able to go back home and rebuild, which many of them would dearly love to be able to do.

where you gonna live free of the threat of a natural disaster? where? so why not live where you cherish being?

[unc70]

64. Building codes have changed greatly along SE coast

After the major local hurricanes in recent times - Floyd, Hugo, Fran -- the building codes in NC and neighboring states changed dramatically. New construction on or near the coasts have to meet much more stringent building codes. In many places, the new rules also prevent re-building at all in particularly vulnerable locations. Similar things happening with development within other flood-prone areas.

Thanks for this discussion and for mentioning the trade-offs in risks from quake vs. fire wrt building materials. Curious how materials like HardiPlank work in your situation. (My house is HP and so far seems like a good choice.)


As an aside, I wish the MSM would quit their incessant comparisons of the fires with Katrina and other hurricanes. This is not the largest evacuation in US history (maybe in CA history). The losses are significant, personally tragic, and a nightmare for those involved. But the losses are tiny when compared to any major hurricane. These fires will destroy several thousand homes, but almost none of the infrastructure. Electricity, water, roads, schools, alternative housing, shopping, ... will still be available.

By comparison, Hurricane Floyd in NC destroyed over 50,000 homes, damaged many more, shuddered businesses and schools for weeks or months, caused an initial evacuation of over 3 million people, and left thousands in shelters for weeks, millions without electricity. Katrina and Rita were much worse. Fifteen thousand at the stadium does not compare with the Superdome.

[mike_c]

65. economics will not trump nature....

That's chaparral and pine forest. It's a fire dependent ecology. Not rebuilding in it might not be easy, but it is the only ecologically sensible thing to do.

[DCKit]

67. I've always taken issue with having to pay higher insurance premiums

Due to the number of people who knowingly build and live in harms way. I also feel sorry for anyone who has lost their house, but don't think my federal tax dollars should be used to bail them out. Besides, the feds are totally incompetent and/or corrupt with any amount of money in their hands and the last group I want to see handing out "free money". Are there ANY concrete figures about how much went missing over Katrina and Rita relief? No doubt a mere drop in the bucket compared to the truckloads of cash that went missing in Iraq, but too much to lose, regardless.

It is inevitable that California, Florida, the Gulf states, North Carolina and other populated areas have and will continue to be hit by major disasters. Those states - at least the areas where hurricanes, floods, wildfires and earthquakes hit hardest - should be designated as national parks with tent camping only.