Conclusions:
1. The explosively formed projectiles do not have any markings whatsoever, they are of low quality, and may have originated anywhere. The claim by the US military that these are from Iran is not sustainable by the evidence they have presented.
2. It may be possible that electronics used in the the production of some EFPs have originated in Iran, but no evidence was presented openly to prove the involvement of the Iranian government.
3. The claims made in the briefing that any type of weapon made in Iran and now present in Iraq is there with the approval of the Iranian government, is simply not an accurate statement and is directly contradicted by the fact that Iran is a major weapons exporter and does business with over 50 countries, including a number of European countries.
4. TNT produced in Iran, and labeled with Farsi, is probably for domestic consumption. Defense Industries Organization, the state owned arms production company of Iran, produces TNT for demolition purposes. The US military did not provide a clear enough image to read the Farsi text, and also did not provide a translation of the Farsi labeling shown in the briefing. However, it is my conclusion after reviewing the evidence that the TNT is Iranian in origin, but again as before, it is not possible to determine from the current evidence if this TNT was purchased on the black market or is a representation of an Iranian covert operation to arm militants in Iraq.
5. It is my determination that the mortars and mortar cases shown in the military briefing for reporters and released for public review are probably produced in Iran. In fact, I have found photographic evidence on the Defense Industries Organization website that actually proves this design is either produced in Iran, and that the weapon itself may either be a replica of an Iranian design or an actual Iranian produced weapon. (The replica theory is not very likely.)
The presence of Latin alphabet/English labeling has been questioned by many on various internet communities, but from Defense Industries Organization itself, we observe that their weapons for export as well as their website primarily use English. This suggests that Iran has adopted English as their "lingua franca" for exporting weapons.
The aforementioned information leads me to believe that these weapons were not produced for domestic consumption in Iran, but were intended for exportation. This makes it very possible that the most immediate origin of these weapons is not Iran, but a country that has purchased these weapons from Iran. While it cannot be known in particular which nations do business with Iran and purchase this exact type of weapon, Iran does business in arms with over 50 countries world wide.
*I have also matched the fuze type to Iran as well, using the DIO website.
6. From open sources, Iran does produce Misagh-1 missile launchers, but it is not at all clear whether they produce them for exportation, as these types of weapons are not available to look at on DIO's website. If the weapon pictured in the military presentation is a Misagh-1, then the Latin alphabet/English labeling suggests it was made for exportation to other countries and not domestic consumption in Iran.
7. Iran does indeed produce RPG-7s, and RPG-7 launchers are available on their website. However, it is not possible to verify that those were Iranian produced RPG-7 rounds, because DIO's website does not show those.
8. The last slide in the military presentation is troublesome for many different reasons. Even the military admits the information is not first hand, in that American personnel have not witnessed border crossings first hand, and that there was no photographic or video evidence presented to confirm any of the claims made in the last slide. In addition, the interrogation methods the US government appears to be willing to use prevents any credible analyst to use such second hand information, as it may have been obtained under great duress.
Until the US military or the US government as a whole provides any type of hard evidence of these claims, the claims should not be believed in any way, shape or form.
Final Summary:
While the US military may have presented arms that were made in Iran or replicas of arms made in Iran, it has not proved the intent of the Iranian government to give those weapons to militants in Iraq. While it did appear to release an ID card of a Qods Force operative, one cannot be certain that this is indeed what it appears to be, because there is no open information to verify or falsify it. Indeed, even if that were to be an authentic card and the detained man an agent of the Qods Force, the military has not linked his presence to any of the weapons presented in the briefing.
While it may be possible Iran's government is providing officially sanctioned assistance to militants in Iraq, that assertion cannot be proved beyond a reasonable doubt or even a much lower burden of proof. In fact, many other scenarios for the weapons provided as evidence being in Iraq exist and may even be more likely than Iran officially sanctioning the arms.
It appears from the nature of the evidence provided versus the nature of the claims made about the evidence, that the United States has ignored the shortcomings of its evidence and is trying desperately to make some type of case for Iranian involvement in Iraq. The analysis provided by the military is not accurate and appears to have been biased.
*The website of Defense Industries Organization was used in the production of this report, it may be found at the following URL:
http://diomil.ir/The website was verified to be Iranian in origin by the WHOIS database of Iran, available at the following URL:
http://www.nic.ir/whois/(To find the WHOIS entry type "diomil" in the text box on the page.)
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