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The disgraced ABC consultant and the push for war in Iran - Alexis Debat

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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 09:51 PM
Original message
The disgraced ABC consultant and the push for war in Iran - Alexis Debat
Edited on Thu Sep-13-07 09:58 PM by seemslikeadream


http://www.attytood.com/2007/09/the_disgraced_abc_consultant_a.html

There's a huge new media scandal breaking this morning, and the headline so far -- that a much-used consultant to ABC News published a phony interview with Barak Obama -- may well be the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The news about now ex-ABC consultant Alexis Debat (left) is just dribbling out, but I'm surprised people haven't been connecting the dots. This post will seek to connect a couple of them.

Simply put, Debat -- a former French defense official who now works at the (no, you can't make these things up) Nixon Center -- has also been a leading source in pounding the drumbeat for war in Iran, and directly linked to some bizarre stories -- reported on ABC's widely watched news shows, and nowhere else -- that either ratcheted up fears of terrorism or that could have stoked new tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Ironically, while Debat's alleged specialty is foreign affairs, it was a foray into American presidential politics that brought this budding scandal out into the open. This from today's article by Howard Kurtz in the Washington Post:

A former consultant to ABC's investigative unit admitted yesterday that he put his name on a purported interview with Barack Obama that he never conducted.

Alexis Debat, a former French defense official who now works at the Nixon Center, published the interview in the French magazine Politique Internationale. He said he had hired a freelance journalist to conduct the interview, in which the Democratic presidential candidate supposedly said that Iraq was "already a defeat for America" that has "wasted thousands of lives." Debat said he had been unable to locate the intermediary, and the Obama campaign says no such interview took place.


http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/09/pelosi-greenspa.html
Clinton, Pelosi, Greenspan, Bloomberg, Gates, Annan Also Say Interviews 'Fakes'

Former President Bill Clinton, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Microsoft founder Bill Gates and former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan have added their names to the list of people who say they were the subjects of fake interviews published in a French foreign affairs journal under the name of Alexis Debat, a former ABC News consultant.

"This guy is just sick," said Patrick Wajsman, the editor of the magazine, Politique Internationale, a prestigious publication that has been in business for 29 years. Wajsman said he was removing all articles with Debat's byline from the magazine's Web site.

Yesterday, a spokesman for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said a supposed interview with Debat, published in the June 2007 edition of Politique Internationale, never occurred and was a fabrication.

The allegation was first reported by another French magazine, Rue 89.

Today, spokespeople for Clinton, Pelosi, Bloomberg, Gates, Greenspan and Annan told the Blotter on ABCNews.com that interviews of them under Debat's name in the magazine also never took place.

In fact, Stephane Dujarric, the deputy communications director for the U.N. secretary-general, said he called the fabricated interview to the attention of the editor of the magazine, Patrick Wajsman, in June 2005.

"I told him that if he went ahead with it, we would denounce the interview as a fake," the U.N. official said. "This was not some obscure guy. This was the sitting secretary-general of the U.N., and the magazine was told it was a fake," he said.

Despite that, Debat continued for the next two years to be cited as the author of interviews with a range of prominent U.S. public officials in Politique Internationale.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 09:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. ABC, owned by Disney, really knows how to hire people, don't they? First, it was...
the Path to 9/11 written by a religious fundamentalist, and now it's this mess.
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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Pentagon ‘three-day blitz’ plan for Iran
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2369001.ece

THE Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert.

Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for “pinprick strikes” against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,” he said.

Debat was speaking at a meeting organised by The National Interest, a conservative foreign policy journal. He told The Sunday Times that the US military had concluded: “Whether you go for pinprick strikes or all-out military action, the reaction from the Iranians will be the same.” It was, he added, a “very legitimate strategic calculus”.

President George Bush intensified the rhetoric against Iran last week, accusing Tehran of putting the Middle East “under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust”. He warned that the US and its allies would confront Iran “before it is too late”.
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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-14-07 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. Debat has been quoted at least 100 times since 2001
Edited on Fri Sep-14-07 11:59 PM by seemslikeadream
Ex-ABC consultant was intern, not official, says French Defense Ministry

PARIS: Further doubt was cast Friday on a former ABC News consultant who apparently faked interviews, when France's Defense Ministry disputed claims that he had worked as an official there.

The consultant, Alexis Debat, had previously been identified in stories by a range of media, including The Associated Press, as a former French Defense Ministry official or analyst. In the National Interest, an online publication he wrote for, identified him as a "former adviser to the French minister of Defense on trans-Atlantic affairs."

But the ministry said Friday that the only trace it could find of Debat in its records was a five-month internship at a ministry advisory office in 2000 and one month of military service.

Debat never served in an office directly under the defense minister and there was no sign that he worked as an official in other defense branches, said Col. Patrick Chanliau, a defense ministry press official.

"He was never a functionary," he said of Debat. "In 2000, he did five months as an intern at the Delegation for Strategic Affairs. There you go. That's all I have."

That office is under the direct authority of the defense minister, advising on geopolitical and strategic affairs.

Ministry interns are often young students "who come here to discover a profession or to complement a course they are following," he said. "To go from that to presenting oneself as an adviser to the minister ... There is no such thing as intern adviser to the minister."

Debat did not respond to e-mails Friday seeking comment on the Defense Ministry statement.

ABC News fired Debat because he could not authenticate academic credentials. He is now at the center of a new dispute over apparently faked interviews with U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama, Bill Gates, Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi and others.

Debat quit the Nixon Center, a Washington think tank, on Wednesday after Obama's representatives claimed an interview with the senator appearing under Debat's byline in the French magazine Politique Internationale never took place. The interview quoted the Democratic candidate as saying the Iraq war was "a defeat for America."

Debat acknowledged to The AP on Thursday that he never conducted any of the interviews published under his byline.

On Friday, Politique Internationale showed The AP an e-mail message sent by Debat in December 2005 in which he says he has just interviewed New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The magazine said it was one of many similar messages it received from Debat.

"The interview with Michael Bloomberg went very well," the message read. "It lasted a little less than an hour but I managed to make the round of questions. I think that it is an interview of stature that could lead the next issue."

Debat has been quoted at least 100 times since 2001 by numerous media organizations in the United States, Britain and France. He is frequently referred to as a former French Defense Ministry official or analyst, or more recently as the senior fellow for national security and terrorism at the Nixon Center, and as a consultant for ABC.

The AP quoted Debat in stories in 2001 and 2004 and is investigating whether the information that he provided was accurate.

He was identified as a terrorism consultant in a 2004 story about CIA Director George Tenet's resignation and quoted as saying Tenet had a reputation as a yes-man for U.S. President George W. Bush.

And he was quoted in 2001, identified as a former French Defense Ministry analyst, a former French Defense Ministry official and as a U.S. desk officer for the Defense Ministry until 2000.

In one story, he said the United States and France had increased their intelligence-sharing.

He was the main source for another story in which he said police had found a notebook with codes that could help decipher messages within Osama bin Laden's terrorist network.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/14/europe/EU-GEN-France-US-Fake-Interviews.php
Ex-ABC consultant was intern, not official, says French Defense Ministry

PARIS: Further doubt was cast Friday on a former ABC News consultant who apparently faked interviews, when France's Defense Ministry disputed claims that he had worked as an official there.

The consultant, Alexis Debat, had previously been identified in stories by a range of media, including The Associated Press, as a former French Defense Ministry official or analyst. In the National Interest, an online publication he wrote for, identified him as a "former adviser to the French minister of Defense on trans-Atlantic affairs."

But the ministry said Friday that the only trace it could find of Debat in its records was a five-month internship at a ministry advisory office in 2000 and one month of military service.

Debat never served in an office directly under the defense minister and there was no sign that he worked as an official in other defense branches, said Col. Patrick Chanliau, a defense ministry press official.

"He was never a functionary," he said of Debat. "In 2000, he did five months as an intern at the Delegation for Strategic Affairs. There you go. That's all I have."

That office is under the direct authority of the defense minister, advising on geopolitical and strategic affairs.

Ministry interns are often young students "who come here to discover a profession or to complement a course they are following," he said. "To go from that to presenting oneself as an adviser to the minister ... There is no such thing as intern adviser to the minister."

Debat did not respond to e-mails Friday seeking comment on the Defense Ministry statement.

ABC News fired Debat because he could not authenticate academic credentials. He is now at the center of a new dispute over apparently faked interviews with U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama, Bill Gates, Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi and others.

Debat quit the Nixon Center, a Washington think tank, on Wednesday after Obama's representatives claimed an interview with the senator appearing under Debat's byline in the French magazine Politique Internationale never took place. The interview quoted the Democratic candidate as saying the Iraq war was "a defeat for America."

Debat acknowledged to The AP on Thursday that he never conducted any of the interviews published under his byline.

On Friday, Politique Internationale showed The AP an e-mail message sent by Debat in December 2005 in which he says he has just interviewed New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The magazine said it was one of many similar messages it received from Debat.

"The interview with Michael Bloomberg went very well," the message read. "It lasted a little less than an hour but I managed to make the round of questions. I think that it is an interview of stature that could lead the next issue."

Debat has been quoted at least 100 times since 2001 by numerous media organizations in the United States, Britain and France. He is frequently referred to as a former French Defense Ministry official or analyst, or more recently as the senior fellow for national security and terrorism at the Nixon Center, and as a consultant for ABC.

The AP quoted Debat in stories in 2001 and 2004 and is investigating whether the information that he provided was accurate.

He was identified as a terrorism consultant in a 2004 story about CIA Director George Tenet's resignation and quoted as saying Tenet had a reputation as a yes-man for U.S. President George W. Bush.

And he was quoted in 2001, identified as a former French Defense Ministry analyst, a former French Defense Ministry official and as a U.S. desk officer for the Defense Ministry until 2000.

In one story, he said the United States and France had increased their intelligence-sharing.

He was the main source for another story in which he said police had found a notebook with codes that could help decipher messages within Osama bin Laden's terrorist network.


http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=23613

--snip--
Almost half of the articles published by daily newspapers in the US contain one or more factual errors, and less than two per cent end up being corrected.

The findings are from a forthcoming research paper by Scott R Maier, an associate professor at the University of Oregon’s School of Journalism and Communication. The findings challenge how well journalism’s “corrections box” sets the record straight or serves as a safety valve for the venting of frustrations by wronged news sources.

The study’s central finding is sobering: 98 per cent of the 1,220 factual newspapers errors examined went uncorrected. The correction rate was uniformly low for each of the 10 newspapers studied, with none correcting even 5 per cent of the mistakes identified by news sources. While it is not plausible or arguably even desirable for every newspaper error to be detected and corrected, Maier noted, the study shows that the corrections box represents the “tip of the iceberg” of mistakes made in a newspaper, therefore providing only a limited mechanism for setting the record straight.

Maier’s findings also challenge journalists’ widely held perception that errors, when detected, are commonly corrected. Previous research showed that news sources brought errors to the attention of newspapers in only about 11 per cent of stories in which errors were identified. Newspapers can hardly be expected to correct errors they do not know were made.

This study, however, shows that even when errors were reported by news sources, the vast majority – 98 per cent – remained uncorrected. In fact, the corrections rate for reported errors is only slightly higher than for errant stories apparently found in error by someone other than the story’s primary source. This suggests that news managers should not rely on corrections as safety valve for the venting of frustrations by wronged news sources, Maier has argued.

Further study is needed to understand why errors, even when reported, go uncorrected. Perhaps news sources didn’t know to whom or how to properly report errors, Maier felt. Reporters and editors, understandably reluctant to make a public mea culpa with published corrections, may have ignored reported errors. Though the study examined only factual errors, differences also may exist between a journalist and a new source as to what constitutes inaccuracy, he pointed out.

This cross-market study of 1,220 errant stories is circumscribed in its statistical analysis by the paucity of published corrections. The data suggest that corrections are more likely to be made when stories are riddled with errors, undermined by egregious errors, or involve front-page coverage. But with only 23 corrections to analyse, these differences fall short of statistical significance.

With such a small base of corrections, it is also difficult to discern whether or not it makes a difference if the errors involves sources who tend to be media savvy – those working in government or community activists with extensive media contact – or an ordinary citizen with little or no experience as a news source. An even larger study is needed to assess these variables on a more robust statistical basis.





GW | Homeland Security
http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/fellows/Debat_bio.htm

Alexis Debat Senior Fellow for National Security and Terrorism Nixon Center ... Alexis Debat is a political scientist and terrorism analyst. ...
www.gwumc.edu/hspi/fellows/Debat_bio.htm

The page has been moved, but he clearly had an index page there that google cached. So what is this place, this Homeland Secuirty Policy Institute?

Quote:
Welcome

On behalf of The George Washington University I welcome you to Homeland Security at the George Washington University. This website serves as a portal to all of the GW homeland security efforts and provides a one stop shop for those interested in homeland security training, education, and policy.

Homeland security is nothing new for GW. For nearly thirty years we have trained first responders in the National Capital Region, and given our location in the heart of the nation’s capital—just blocks from the White House and federal agencies such as the U.S. State Department—we understand well the need for a prepared nation.

Soon after 9-11, GW President Stephen Joel Trachtenberg charged me with developing the University’s homeland security strategy. To this end, I recruited top homeland security leaders from government and academia and created programs to provide the nation and the region with expertise GW is uniquely qualified to provide.

While building our university’s homeland security programs, Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge appointed me to the Emergency Response Senior Advisory Committee to the Homeland Security Advisory Council. In this capacity, I advise the Department of Homeland Security on the public safety, public health and medical aspects of homeland security preparedness and response. I am honored to serve the University and the nation on these critical homeland security issues.

I encourage you to learn more about our programs via this website and suggest you contact Frank Cilluffo, Associate Vice President for Homeland Security at 202-994-0986. Frank has substantial experience in homeland security—having served as a Special Assistant to the President of the United States for Homeland Security—and he would be happy to discuss our homeland security programs with you.

John “Skip” Williams, M.D., Ed.D.
University Provost


Doesn't seem very French to me.....

Oh, by the way..If you decide to click the google cache link, here's your reward:

Quote:
Alexis Debat
Senior Fellow for National Security and Terrorism
Nixon Center
Phone: (202)887-1000
E-mail: adebat@nixoncenter.org

Alexis Debat is a political scientist and terrorism analyst. After completing his tour with the UN Relief and Works Agency in 1997 and graduating with a PhD from La Sorbonne in 1999, Alexis occupied various positions in the French government, first as an analyst on the
Counter-Terrorism Coordinating Committee, then as a senior desk officer for the Ministry of Defense.

Upon settling in the United States in 2003, he pursued his research on terrorism and Islam through his work as visiting professor at Middlebury College, senior consultant to ABC News, and expert on Islamic finance and Islamic law for clients such as Deutsche Bank and the Japan External Trade Organization. Still a senior terrorism consultant to ABC News, Alexis is now a contractor for Rand and a contributing editor to "The National Interest" in Washington, D.C.

He also advises the Business for Diplomatic Action, a consortium of American companies, on the implementation of public diplomacy programs in the Middle East. He has published extensively on Islam and terrorism in "The National Interest" and on ABCNews.com, where he writes a weekly column.



Business for Diplomatic Action

Introduction

Our mission is to enlist the U.S. business community in actions to improve the standing of America in the world with the goal of once again, seeing America admired as a global leader and respected as a courier of progress and prosperity for all people.

BDA is a private-sector task force directed by preeminent communications, marketing, political science, global development and media professionals. The task force steers a collective of multinational companies in the development, sharing, and warehousing of ideas, insights, and guidance on communication and perception issues that U.S. businesses are uniquely positioned to address.

This effort is not about ads or selling-it's about sensitizing Americans to the extent of anti-Americanism today and its implications, transforming American attitudes and behaviors as necessary, building on the many positive perceptions of America that still exist, and building new bridges of cooperation, respect, and mutual understanding across cultures and borders through business-led initiatives.

Board Management

* Keith Reinhard, President; Chairman Emeritus, DDB Worldwide
* Tom Miller, Vice President
* Cari E. Guittard, Executive Director

Board Members

* Alan Siegel, Chairman, Siegel & Gale
* Allen Rosenshine, Chairman, BBDO Worldwide, Inc.
* Chuck Merin, Managing Director, BKSH & Associates
* Dr. Joseph Plummer, Chief Research Officer, The ARF
* Dr. Mansour Javidan, professor & director of the Garvin Center for the Cultures and Languages of International Management at Thunderbird, The Garvin School of International Management
* Gary E. Knell, President & CEO, Sesame Workshop
* Harris Diamond, CEO, Weber Shandwick Worldwide
* Jack Daly, Senior Vice President, Corporate Relations, McDonald's
* Jeff Weintraub, Senior Vice President, Fleishman-Hillard, Washington, D.C.
* John McNeel, President and CEO of G1 Worldwide, TBWA Worldwide
* Lou Capozzi, Chairman Emeritus of the Publicis Public Relations & Corporate Communications Group
* Mark Kaplan, Of Counsel, Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP
* Mark Morris, Chairman & Worldwide Client Director (retired), Bates North America
* Michael Rawding, Vice President - Partners, Products & Solutions
Unlimited Potential Group, Microsoft Corporation
* Roger Frizzell, Vice President, Corporate Communications & Advertising, American Airlines, Inc.
* Suzanne Fletcher, President & CEO NBTA; Director of Travel, Meetings, Food Service, Fleet, Transportation, Weyerhaeuser
* Theodore Pincus, Independent communications consultant; financial columnist, Chicago Sun-Times; finance professor at DePaul University; former owner of the Financial Relations Board
* Tim Zagat, Co-Founder, Co-Chair, & CEO, Zagat Survey
* Tod J. MacKenzie, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications, PepsiCo
* Tom Kwon, CEO, Xtential Corporation

Academic Leadership Council

* Alvin Snyder, Senior Fellow, USC Center on Public Diplomacy
* Bob Barocci, President & CEO, The Advertising Research Foundation
* Bruce W. Jentleson, Professor of Public Policy and Political Science, Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University
* Dr. Alexander Stephan, Senior Fellow and Professor, Mershon Center, Ohio State University; Ohio Eminent Scholar in Germanic Languages and Literatures
* Dr. Allison Stanger, Director, Rohatyn Center for International Affairs and Professor of Political Science, Middlebury College
* Dr. Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dean, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
* Dr. Fawaz Gerges, Distinguished Chair & Middle East Scholar, Sarah Lawrence College
* Dr. Jeffrey Garten, Dean, Yale School of Management
* Dr. John J. Schulz, Dean, College of Communication, Boston University
* Dr. Joseph Nye, Former Dean, Harvard JFK School of Government; author, Soft Power
* Dr. Michael Goodman, Founder and Director, Corporate Communication Institute, Fairleigh Dickinson University
* Dr. Nicholas Imparato, Professor, School of Business and Management, University of San Francisco and Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
* Dr. Patricia Alvey, Distinguished Chair, Temerlin Advertising Institute, SMU
* Dr. Russell A. Berman, Walter A. Haas Professor in the Humanities at Stanford University; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
* Dr. Subrata K. Sen, Joseph F. Cullman Professor of Marketing, Yale School of Management
* Dr. Yoram (Jerry) Wind, The Lauder Professor; Professor of Marketing; Director, SEI Center for Advanced Studies in Management; Academic Director, Wharton Fellows Program, Editor, Wharton School Publishing, The Wharton School, The University of Pennsylvania
* Geoffrey Cowan, Dean, Annenberg School of Communication, University of Southern California
* Martha Bayles, author, culture critic, and lecturer, Boston College
* Rick Boyko, Managing Director & Creative Professor, VCU Adcenter

Senior Advisory Council

* Aaron Lobel, President, America Abroad Media
* Alan J. Ortiz, President, Knowledge Sculpting
* Alexander Karsner, Managing Director, Enercorp LLC
* Alexis Debat, Senior Fellow, The Nixon Center
* Allyson Stewart-Allen, Founder, International Marketing Partners Consultants; co-author, Working with Americans
* Amer Kayani, Regional Senior Commercial Officer for Egypt, Lebanon and Libya & Counselor for Commercial Affairs, US Embassy Cairo
* Bill Connors, Executive Director, NBTA
* Bridget Brennan, Founder, Female Factor
* Bruce Lowry, Director of Public Relations, Novell; former Foreign Service Officer, U.S. Department of State (Saudi Arabia, Swaziland and Italy)
* Crocker Snow, Jr., President, Money Matters Institute; Chairman, Global Horizon Fund; Exec Director of Edward R. Murrow Center for Public Diplomacy at Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy
* David Chambers, Assistant Editorial Director, Government Sales, Accenture LLP
* Diana Glassman, President, Integration Strategy, LLC
* Dominic Patten, Chief Features, Arts & Life Editor, The Vancouver Sun
* Douglas Donaldson, President, Donaldson Media Management
* Dr. Mitchell Eggers, GMI, COO
* Dr. Sherry L. Mueller, President, National Council for International Visitors
* Elissa Moses, EVP/Managing Partner, Grey Worldwide
* Elizabeth Chazottes, Executive Director & CEO, Association for International Practical Training
* Hashem Bajwa, Account Manager, Goodby, Silverstein & Partners
* Helle Dale, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense Studies, The Heritage Foundation
* Howard Soriano, Co-founder, Girdwood Partners, LLC
* John D. Allen, President & COO, Wilden
* John Wilhelm, President, Intrax Global Education & Exchange
* Jonathan Warren, President, Nevada Committee on Foreign Relations & President Trade Capital Company, Ltd.
* Lanie Denslow, Founder, World Wise Intercultural Training Resources; co-author, Working with Americans
* Laurel Cutler, Director, Global Strategic Planning, Fallon
* Margaret Bensfield, PR Account Executive, The Rosen Group
* Marlene M. Johnson, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, NAFSA
* Michael Fleming, Communications Executive
* Michael Morley, Chairman, Echo Research, Author & former Chairman of Edelman Worldwide
* Michele Nadeem, President & CEO, Media Boston International
* Mike Riley, Principal, at Pragmatic Business Solutions
* N. Michael Dudynskay, Leo Burnett/Arc Worldwide
* Nancy Bachrach, Ph.D, Chief Marketing Officer (retired), Grey Worldwide
* Paul Fiddick, President, Emmis International
* Reginald Dale, Senior Fellow, Europe Program, Center for Strategic & International Studies
* Simon Anholt, advisor to various governments on branding and public diplomacy; author of Brand America and Brand New Justice
* The Hon. Jill Schuker, President, JAS International; Special Assistant to the President (Clinton) & Senior Director for Public Affairs, National Security Council
* Tim Love, Vice-Chairman, Omnicom Group
* Tom Edwards, Geographer and Principal Consultant, Englobe Inc.
* Yves-André Istel, Senior Advisor, Rothschild
_________________________

So Mr Debat is a 'Senior Advisor' to a board of Multi-Nationals whose primary focus is International/Stateside Perception Management..

Get it?

http://www.nixoncenter.org/index.cfm?action=showpage&page=pakistanization

The Pakistanization of Al Qaeda

Five years after the 9/11 attacks, Al-Qaeda is alive and well in Pakistan. Speaking at the Nixon Center yesterday, the center’s senior fellow for national security and terrorism Alexis Debat argued that Al-Qaeda is "coherent”, complex" and "has reorganized brilliantly with a tremendous amount of knowledge and help from various elements of Pakistani civil society." While some scholars, notably Marc Sageman, may insist that Al-Qaeda is currently little more than a label for a particular ideology, Debat observed otherwise during a recent three-week trip to Pakistan. After extensive interviews with Pakistani intelligence sources, government officials and terrorist “sympathizers”, he concluded that, since the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda has undergone a process of "Pakistanization." Not only are Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri believed to be in northern Pakistan, but they are still deeply involved in planning global terrorist attacks. In fact, most post-9/11 Al-Qaeda plots can be linked to the organization’s Pakistani branch.

Al-Qaeda's presence is well-established in Pakistan. The provinces of North and South Waziristan, in northwest Pakistan, are home to some of Al-Qaeda's training facilities. Powerful clerics in these rugged areas shelter Al-Qaeda's top leadership. Even before the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan provided some of Al-Qaeda's most capable recruits. More disturbingly, Al-Qaeda has links to Jamiat i Islami, a large, well-established Pakistani Islamist political party. During his talk, Debat noted that "Al-Qaeda is making inroads into the senior levels of the political class." To complicate matters, President Pervez Musharraf is also attempting to gain the support of Islamist political parties in order to shore up support for his deteriorating regime.

Frustrated by what it perceives as Pakistan’s lack of progress on counterterrorism issues, the Bush Administration has courted India at the expense of Pakistan, India's regional rival. However, uprooting Al-Qaeda means that the Pakistani government would exacerbate existing regional, sectarian and tribal conflicts, thereby "weakening Pakistan as an entity." Westerners often ignore this crucial piece of information when assessing Pakistan's efforts to control the Islamic extremism within its borders. By holding the Musharraf government to impossibly high standards, the Bush Administration risks further alienating both the Pakistani public and political elite. Indeed, the current administration has thus far crafted faulty policies towards Pakistan.

Although Musharraf made concessions in 2004 on the Kashmir issue, India has yet to display a willingness to match Pakistani compromises, despite Bush's pledge to put diplomatic pressure on the Indian government. Pakistanis see the Bush Administration's inability to fulfill this promise as a slight, especially in light of Musharraf's continued public support of the United States in its War on Terror.

Unfortunately, the administration persists in providing skeptical Pakistanis with reasons to doubt the strength of the U.S. commitment to Pakistan. Debat described Bush's March visit to South Asia—during which he traveled to Afghanistan and India before Pakistan—as "the diplomatic equivalent of punching in the face."
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