Speed of Climate Change An Unseen Danger

[EV_Ares]

The total amount of global warming we allow has dire consequences for our planet. But so too does the speed of that climate change. According to the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), this focus has not yet appeared in either science or policy.

CICERO highlights some ecological studies focusing on the rate of climate change, most of which leave no doubt that the expected rate of change during this century will exceed the ability of many animals and plants to migrate or adapt. One such study found that five percent of all ecosystems cannot adapt more quickly than 0.1°C per decade over time:


Forests will be among the ecosystems to experience problems first because their ability to migrate to stay within the climate zone they are adapted to is limited. If the rate is 0.3 °C per decade, 15 percent of ecosystems will not be able to adapt. If the rate should exceed 0.4 °C per decade, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed, opportunistic species will dominate, and the breakdown of biological material will lead to even greater emissions of CO2. This will in turn increase the rate of warming.

There is also a risk that rapid climate change will increase the likelihood of the really big and scary changes, i.e., the irreversible ones, such as a weakening of the Gulf Stream, and/or the melting of the Greenland ice sheets. Rapid change increases the risk of triggering positive feedback mechanisms that will increase the rate and level of temperature change still more. Read more about these in MoJo's The Thirteenth Tipping Point.

According to CICERO, to focus on the speed of climate change we need to concentrate more on the short-lived greenhouse gases (methane and tropospheric ozone), as well as particles with a warming effect, such as soot (black carbon). They also suggest a greater focus on the medium-term—the next few decades—since the fastest changes will likely occur around that time.

Of course, that requires that we speed up the grindingly-slow gears of public policy and determination. First step in that process: Stop fighting the naysayers. It's a waste of time and energy and we've already lost a decade doing it. We need to step around, over, or through their obstinate refusal to face the truth. Luckily, we have a model for doing this, since we hopscotched over the “science” of the tobacco industry long ago.

On that cheery note, I'm off to the wilderness for a week or three, close to the comforts of nature, far from the madding consumers. JULIA WHITTY

Link: http://www.motherjones.com/blue_marble_blog/archives/2007/09/5359_speed_of_climat.html?src=email&link=hed_20070905_bl4_Speed%20of%20Climate%20Change%20An%20Unseen%20Danger

[leftchick]

1. as the mother of two young sons

this scares the hell out of me. :cry:

[EV_Ares]

2. You know, it is good to hear what you just said "as the mother of two

sons, this scares the hell out of me". The reason I say that is because I have always asked how can we say how much we love our children and grandchildren if we don't constantly strive to leave them a planet they can enjoy as we have had the opportunity to and be able to live and survive and raise families of their own. Is that too much to ask of ourselves? Yet, you watch and see those of this generation in their own selfish ways continue to abuse and waste the resources of this beautiful planet we live on with the end result of who knows what for their children and grandchildren.

You cannot say you love your children and not be scared as hell. Thank you for posting to this, something I feel is very important.

[leftchick]

4. these last couple of weeks have put me into a dpression

both of my boys have seen and read a lot of what I know about Global Warming. I took them to see An Inconvenient Truth and the are very aware of what is happening. My ten year old is completely into helping any way we can personally. He even made a sign a couple of week ago that read "Honk if You WANT To Stop Global Warming" and he sat out in front of our house in the heat for two hours to count honks! It makes me cry to think how cute he looked. The sad thing is I actually lie to him when he asks me if the earth will be okay when he is my age. Because I highly doubt it. :(


I need a Global Warming Parenting group. Certainly there are more parents like me that are distraught.

[EV_Ares]

5. I know there are. Maybe there is a really good environmental group

that you and your family can get involved in. That can be depressing at times with all we are up against as well as working with animal groups and seeing what the animals are up against anymore along with the cruelty. However, it can be very uplifting with your accomplishments as well and your sons will become more informed and understand the implications of global warming and overall could help and bring you into a lot of good positive friendships as well.

Remember, it is understandable to get depressed on this but you have to remember not to dwell on it, there is only so much you yourself can do, but the power of one is tremendous when it becomes a collective group. Forgive me if I tended to lecture, because I didn't mean to. I do care and understand.

[leftchick]

6. hey

I appreciate your kind words. More than I can say. Thank you.

[malaise]

3. Be afraid, very afraid

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/04/climatechange

<snip>
The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and levels of sea ice in the region now stand at record lows, scientists have announced.

Experts say they are "stunned" by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as the UK disappearing in the last week alone.

So much ice has melted this summer that the Northwest passage across the top of Canada is fully navigable, and observers say the Northeast passage along Russia's Arctic coast could open later this month.

[dysfunctional press]

7. the words of Carole King come to mind...

personally- i think the planet is F-U-C-K-E-D.
According to what i've seen/read- even if we took our total carbon output to ZERO tomorrow(and kept it there)- temps would still continue to rise for a couple decades...and we AREN'T going to drop it to zero. or at all. by the time the type of catastrophic event it's going to take to get the vast majority of people to want to change happens, it's going to be WAY too late to stop anything.
but then like i said- i personally believe that the 'tipping point' has already been passed.

so...i'd like to dedicate this carole king ditty to our one and only home- the great, soon to be late...Planet Earth


(sung to the tune of "it's too late")

Stayed in bed all morning just to pass the time
There's something wrong here, there can be no denying
One of us is changing, or maybe we've stopped trying

And it's too late, baby, now it's too late
Though we really did try to make it
Something inside has died and I can't hide
And I just can't fake it

It used to be so easy living here with you
You were light and breezy and I knew just what to do
Now you look so unhappy, and I feel like a fool

And it's too late, baby, now it's too late
Though we really did try to make it
Something inside has died and I can't hide
And I just can't fake it

There'll be good times again for me and you
But we just can't stay together, don't you feel it too
Still I'm glad for what we had, and how I once loved you

But it's too late, baby, it's too late
Though we really did try to make it
Something inside has died and I can't hide

[EV_Ares]

8. Man, I appreciate those words of Carole. Her & James Taylor. I

may even go out & pick up a CD by her. I had some but they have disappeared over the years in one way or another.