|
Edited on Wed Sep-05-07 09:59 AM by leftchick
to be followed closely by "AEI to Roll Out “The Iranian Time Bomb” Sep 10". http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=57The neo-conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which contributed so much to the propaganda and planning for the Iraq invasion and subsequent occupation, appears set to launch its “Defend-the-Surge” campaign in the run-up to the presentation of and Congressional debate over the Petraeus-Crocker report on Thursday, September 6, with an afternoon forum whose title, “’No Middle Way’ in Iraq,” is suggestive of its conclusions. (Perhaps coincidentally, Rich Lowry has an article in the latest National Review magazine whose subtitle is “Sen. Richard Lugar and the Disastrous ‘Middle Way’ on Iraq” – an attack on Lugar’s floor speech that called, among other things, for the adoption of the major recommendations of the Iraq Study Group.) The line-up is predictable, although it lacks even the token dissident whom it usually invites on such occasions, if for no other reason than to act as a convenient Colmes to AEI’s raging Hannitys. Participating in the first panel will be two of the Surge’s key architects – Fred Kagan (who escorted Bill Kristol on his first trip to Iraq earlier earlier this month) and ret. Gen. Jack Keane. Joining them will be (surprise!) Michael O’Hanlon from the supposedly more-liberal (but increasingly interventionist) Brookings Institution, a big Surge supporter whose July 30 New York Times op-ed co-authored by fellow-Brookings Iraq hawk, Ken Pollack, made such a splash in the mainstream media (See my colleague Khodi Akhavi’s Aug 22 article on the subject). The second panel will feature presentations by Kagan and two alumni of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), Tom Donnelly and Gary Schmitt, who have since moved up several stories from Kristol’s complex on the fifth floor of the 1150 17th St., N.W., building in downtown Washington to AEI’s headquarters. This panel will feature the release of “No Middle Way,” or what is described by AEI as “an evaluation of the June 2007 report by the Democratic/Republican realist Center for a New American Security (CNAS) entitled “Phased Transition: A Responsible Way Forward and Out of Iraq.” That report called for the Bush administration to end its Surge and launch a transition process that focuses U.S. forces on an advisory role and reduces our military presence in Iraq from approximately 160,000 today to about 60,000 by the end of 2008, a strategy that, incidentally, may not be so far from that favored by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at least according to an important article published by the Los Angeles Times Friday. Needless to say, the fact that the second panel will not include anyone from CNAS suggests that AEI believes there really is “no middle way” either here or in Iraq. In any event, a partial preview of the upcoming forum and AEI’s arguments in favor of sustaining the Surge is available in an analysis in Kristol’s ‘Weekly Standard’ posted today in which Kagan gives his take on Thursday’s NIE. Kagan, whose academic expertise is German military history, predictably exaggerates the NIE’s more-positive findings about the security situation and downplays or disagrees (presumably based on all of his recent parachutings into Iraq) with the more-negative assessments. (“… he obsession with the ability of Iraqi units to fight without any American help is foolish.”) While the NIE, for example, sees increased Sunni cooperation with U.S. forces against Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) over the past six to nine months as opportunistic and as an effort to “strengthen themselves for a post-Coalition security environment” (i.e., intensified sectarian conflict), Kagan, who obviously depends heavily on his U.S. and Iraqi handlers during his trips to Iraq, sees “an indication of passive reconciliation (by Sunnis)” to Shi’a dominance of the government and its security forces. Obviously, neither the intelligence community nor U.S. correspondents who have vastly more experience on the ground in Iraq have echoed that assessment.
http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=58
AEI to Roll Out “The Iranian Time Bomb” Sep 10
Just four days after the American Enterprise Institute will launch its September 6 “All or Nothing” campaign to save the Surge, it will debut “Freedom Scholar” Michael Ledeen’s forthcoming book, “The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction” (St. Martin’s Press), a rehash of neo-con arguments for “regime change” – by military force, if necessary – in Tehran. Judging by the excerpts that have been released to date, Ledeen’s latest tract will be entirely predictable, although, in addition to emphasizing, as he has for much of the last several years, the urgent need to support and fund the regime’s domestic opposition, he concludes that “his presidential administration or the next will likely face a terrible choice: appease a nuclear Iran, or bomb it before their atomic weapons are ready to go. While a sad exclamation point at the end of nearly thirty years of failed policy, confrontation may be virtually inescapable. Like other ideological wars of the twentieth century, this war will likely only end when one side has lost.”
Joining Ledeen at the afternoon panel will be former CIA director James Woolsey, the long-time Iran hawk who still believes Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda were tight and no doubt agrees with Ledeen’s analysis that Iran and al Qaeda have been even tighter, and – this is most interesting – ret. Gen. Jack Keane, one of the architects, along with Fred Kagan and other AEI scholars, of the Surge. Perhaps Keane is being brought in in order to echo the recent crescendo of charges regarding Iran’s alleged supply of explosively formed projectiles (EFPs) to Shi’a militias, but I will be interested to see whether he promotes the increasingly fashionable idea among hawks in and outside the administration in favor of cross-border raids into Iran, something that the Pentagon, I am told, is definitely against. Keane, of course, is regarded as close to Gen. David Petraeus, and whatever he says on the subject of Iran should be listened to closely for evidence if a widening split between the Joint Chiefs, on the one hand, and Petraeus, the neo-cons’ Caesar, on the other.
The chronological juxtaposition of the Surge panel September 6 and the roll-out of Ledeen’s book September 10 underlines the balance that AEI and other hawks (including the vice president’s office) are trying to achieve between their two top priorities at the moment – sustaining the Surge well into next year and rallying Congress and the public behind an attack on Iran before the end of Bush’s term, if by then “diplomacy” does not achieve the desired results of 1) freezing its nuclear program and/or 2) halting Tehran’s support for its Shi’a allies (including the Maliki government) in Iraq. To their dismay, they have been forced to spend far more time, effort, and, above all, ink, on defending the Surge over the past eight months than on laying the groundwork for an attack on Iran, although they are showing signs in recent days of trying hard to make up the difference. If it becomes clear by late September or early October that Democrats and uneasy Republicans will indeed acquiesce in the continuation of the Surge at least until next spring (when troop numbers will almost certainly have to be reduced anyway), I think it’s very likely we will see a much bigger focus by AEI and the neo-cons, as well as their allies within the administration, on Iran and the necessity of a military confrontation before Bush leaves. |
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
