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The conditions for a 'perfect storm' continue to converge for Democrats as we head into the home stretch of a race which will be run on a 'still to be determined track.'
THere is every reason to believe that this race for the Democratic nomination will be 'unlike' any we have experienced in the last 2 generations.
Consider the following:
The top 3 candidates have raised sufficient campaign cash to make long term campaign runs all the way to the Democratic Convention.
Democratic voters have had 7 years as spectators of corporate interests in power, and they want the Democratic nominee to change the status quo. This issue has the potential to flatten support for the candidates who have taken large corporate contributions and support.
Front-loading the primaries will likely 'split' the votes roughly along present polling lines, meaning no candidate can emerge with the nomination well within their grasp after Super Tuesday.
With the nomination still up for grabs post Super Tuesday, Democrats may turn to Gore as yet another viable alternative in the event of a brokered convention.
Post Super Tuesday primaries might shore up one or more candidates heading to the convention but would not likely be decisive.
Given the unmistakable mood of the country, the longer Democrats delay in forcing the WH to begin deploying our troops out of Iraq, the more likely it is that 'an outsider/populist' will strengthen their support heading into the convention.
And don't forget that Democrats at a Democratic Convention will be looking at which candidates have the ability to garner votes from the independents and undecideds and unaffliated voters in the general election. This means their focus will be on 'who can win in the general election' more than which candidate appeals most to the Democratic base.
This could end up being the election year in which a Democratic Convention could be called upon to choose its nomination without a clear mandate from the primaries. IF this scenario does indeed play out, be prepared for a very public fight within the party to grab the nomination and win back the White House.
For purposes of full disclosure, I support John Edwards.
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