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300 to 400 billion barrels of Oil Say: We’re Never Leaving Iraq….

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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:52 AM
Original message
300 to 400 billion barrels of Oil Say: We’re Never Leaving Iraq….
At least until all the oil is gone. The world consumes 86 million barrels of oil a day. The estimated 300 to 400 billion barrels of oil in Iraq moves the date of Peak Oil out 5 years all by itself. Why does Iraq have so much untapped oil? Because the strategy of the oil companies has always been to keep Iraq oil off the market so that the Saudis could be the swing producer and thus keep oil prices artificially high. But now the Saudi Oil is running out at the same time would consumption is expected to increase 37% to 118 million barrels a day.

Look, read the history of US/British oil-motivated intervention in Iraq. The US and Britain have always intervened militarily to maintain their position in Iraq. The current Iraq War has only been the latest in a string of wars to enforce the Oil Giant’s imperial goals:

Oil Companies in Iraq: A Century of Rivalry and War

The United States and the United Kingdom did not wage war on Iraq for the officially stated reasons. That much is obvious. The world’s superpower and its key ally were not acting because they feared the Iraqi government’s weapons of mass destruction or its ties with the terrorist group al-Qaeda. Nor were they fighting to bring democracy to the Middle East, a region where the two governments had long supported reactionary monarchs and odious dictators, including Iraqi president Saddam Hussein himself.

It is time, then, to set aside the sterile discussions about “intelligence failures” and to consider a deeper reason for the conflict. This paper will argue that the war was primarily a “war for oil” in which large, multinational oil companies and their host governments acted in secret concert to gain control of Iraq's fabulous oil reserves and to gain leverage over other national oil producers. In arguing for the primacy of oil, we do not imply that other factors were not at play. The imperial dreams of the neo-con advisors in Washington contributed to the final outcome, as did the re-election strategies of the political operatives in the White House. But the Iraq war did not emerge solely from the Bush administration. As we shall see, it involved both London and Washington, through the course of many governments. And it emerged from a decades-long effort by the world's largest companies to appropriate the planet's most lucrative natural resource deposits.

….

Officially, Iraq’s reserves are stated as 112 billion barrels, the world’s second largest after Saudi Arabia. According to the US Department of Energy, Iraq’s real reserves may be far greater – as much as 3-400 billion barrels after further prospecting. Iraq’s Senior Deputy Oil Minister confirmed high estimates on May 22, 2002, in an interview with Platts, a leading industry information source. He said: “we will exceed 300 billion barrels when all Iraq’s regions are explored,” and he went on to affirm that “Iraq will be the number one holder of oil reserves in the world.”

Iraq’s oil is the world’s cheapest to produce, at a cost of only about $1 per barrel. The gigantic “rent” on Iraq’s oil, during decades of production, could yield company profits in the range of $4-5 trillion dollars – that is, $4-5 million, millions. Assuming fifty years of production and 40% royalties, Iraq could yield annual profits of $80-90 billion per year – more than the total annual profits of the top five companies, even in the banner year of 2003.



http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2003/2003companiesiniraq.htm



DemocracyNow has an interview with Jim Paul:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/06/03/142249

Here’s the deal: Until there’s a Manhattan Project sized push to replace oil, until there’s a Jimmy Carter type push to conserve energy, all this talk about leaving Iraq is just that, talk; a little something between the mega-false-flag-terror-attacks to let you think that you have a voice in the governing of this country. You don’t. Large business interests have always ruled America and now, by attrition, Big Oil is the 800 pound Gorilla in room.
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izzie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 09:07 AM
Response to Original message
1. I do not know why I even read it as it is my thinking.
I do not think history is with the grab for oil. The world has moved on and people in these countries see what we are after. So a war for their oil. We have lots of wars for some one else stuff believe me. The days of the Brits, Belgium. Germany, etc. taking over countries to take their goods are, I think, over. Even the old corp. way is getting old. The East India Co, is gone. I do not see us giving it up as long as the govt. will go to war for corp. and the people will not vote the people out of office that will do this. As long as a President and Congress are willing to have your son killed for profits in any company one has a problem. I am not a socialist but I do feel the people must have a say in this and business that effects our life.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
2. Well, the thing is, the military eats a huge quantity of oil.
So it is seen as a "strategic asset". So no, they won't give up easy. The fact that that "strategic asset" is half way around the world makes it a bit unrealistic in a real war, but being unrealistic is the Pentagon's stock in trade these days.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. We are SO dependent on Oil in SO many ways....
We fuel our cars with Oil.

We transport our goods with Oil.

We eat oil and gas in the form of fertilizers and pesticides.

Plastics of all kinds come from Oil.

The strength of the US Dollar is now based on our military control of the world's oil. Didn't used to be - we use to be an industrial colossus. No more. We are an Imperial Power and the value of our currency rises and falls with our Imperial successes and failures.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
4. Sorry to have to post another bummer, but until you know what the problem is....
you just can't solve it.

If you were told you had cancer, would you doctor shop until you found a doctor willing to tell you that you're fine?
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
5. aka: "Vital US Security Interests" as hillary would say
nothing will change until this elephant in the room is addressed. Dennis and Gravel are the only candidates, to my knowledge, who have stated what the true US "security interests" are.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. What passes for Political Discussion in the Corporate Media...
and a good 90% of DU is truly embarrassing.

I stay for the 10% and some of that 10% is truly great, but the rest...:eyes:
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. I agree
and it is what the corporatists in power are counting on, the complacent and complicit.
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superkia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #5
23. And for some reason, people still dismiss those candidates?
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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
6. Iran 1950's Consortium Agreement
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=1661803&mesg_id=1662009


After the coup to remove Mossadegh (Musaddiq) Iran signed the Consortium Agreement with American and British oil companies.

Overthrow the leader and make a deal with foreign oil companies? I would imagine that many in Iraq are aware of this history and that it may contribute to the backlash we are seeing from some elements in Iraq to the Iraq Oil law.

It would be helpful to see a comparison of the current draft Iraq Oil law and the Consortium Agreement, still trying to find one.

Comments appreciated.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Controlling Iraqi oil output since the 1930s...

...

Because the majors had potential production from so many Middle Eastern fields, they could in effect choose which fields they would exploit and which they would pump at low production levels. Where there were consortia, production levels were controlled by a specific formula. Since the four American companies in Aramco, and Gulf in Kuwait, were rich in crude oil, they had no real interest in major new production. Production from Iran and Saudi Arabia was held at much less than capacity. Partly because of US government wishes, however, these two countries increased production more than others, to keep the Shah and the King happy, and to allow them (especially the Shah) the money to outfit their armed forces with the newest American hardware. If the majors increased production in Iran and Saudi Arabia by 12% and 10% respectively, more than the 9.55% that global demand would stand at good prices, production had to be held back even more in other rich oil-producing areas. Kuwait and Iraq were usually chosen as the producers to have low production rates: from 1958-1972, their production increased 5.9% and 5.1% respectively. Discoveries in other nations (such as Oman) were simply not developed at all. This was the fatal flaw in the system: sooner or later, producer nations would realize the extent of the manipulation, and react to it.

For example, Iraq was manipulated by neglect. The partners in Iraq Petroleum discovered a great number of likely fields in the 1930s, but were slow to drill them. They already had access to enormous fields in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait, and Iraqi oil production was simply not needed (except possibly by the Iraqis!). Iraq Petroleum became notorious for this kind of tactic, which it also used in Qatar and Syria. Even today no-one has any clear idea just how large Iraq's oil reserves are, except that they are much greater than its current production implies.

...



http://www-geology.ucdavis.edu/~cowen/~GEL115/115CH13oil.html

The whole link is really well worth a read...

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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Thank you...
I'll read through it later this afternoon. Bottom line, some people do not want to be controlled :(
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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. Printed for later (14 pages) n/t
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. I just reread it on my July vacation...
It's quite chewey and takes a few readings to catch the nuances...
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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Just skimming through I can see why a few reads might be
necessary :)

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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. It's The Greatest Story Never Told....
The actual, no shit, history of Oil.

Things you (for sure me) probably never heard of...

The Achnacarry Agreement (The First Oil Cartel)

How cheap Saudi Oil was used to get the majors all on the same page (re: Middle East oil policy) and then withdrawn so that America would use up all its native oil...

The overthrows...the Libyan Threat...

What a great documentary it would make....
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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. We're never told the important stuff :) ...
"In August of 1928 Achnacarry was the chosen secret location for a "peace conference" between the leaders of the free world's oil industry. Lengthy price wars and the threatening flow of Russian oil had drawn these men together to come to terms in an isolated and relaxing setting. Their two weeks of discussion and hunting among Lochiel's estate resulted in an impressive seventeen page document that was known as the "Pool Association." Later it became better known as the "As-Is" or "Achnacarry Agreement." In it these men of industry attempted to solve the era's problem of overproduction with quotas in various world markets."

Never heard of Achnacarry, some pictures of the relaxed setting

http://www.clan-cameron.org/achna.html






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AllyCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
10. The thing is, we want to control the flow, which means REDUCING flow
Big Oil doesn't want Iraq's oil on the market. It would drop their prices considerably. Iraq's quota was like 2-3 million per day under Saddam. He wanted to increase that, but OPEC (read: Saudi Arabia) wouldn't let him. Big Oil didn't want to let him either. So we took care of that problem.

In 2005, Iraq's average production was down to 1.4 million barrels a day. And of course, we know when the price spike hit.

We just want to control the flow to whatever works for us. The neo-cons wanted an increase in an effort to take over OPEC, but Big Oil wouldn't hear of it. They sent their legions from Texas to Bremer to make sure that didn't happen. And it didn't.

Interesting read in Greg Palast's book Armed Madhouse about this. I was livid for the entire chapter.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 03:27 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. As I said in my OP, that's been the policy. However, as Saudi output declines...
and world demand goes up, they will want to bring Iraqi oil online...and Big Oil wants to be there to take in the profit.

Now, many, many Iraqis oppose that. And that is why many, many Iraqis are being killed.

See:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=1503947
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
11. I'm trying to find a way to take this discussion to the next logical level.
And I don't mean as of reading this post. I spend every day in disbelief that people "don't get it". If I walk out my front door, I am assaulted by the sound of cars. If I were to say that it's us who are causing this war, global warming, people would flame me. They are in denial. People think that someone has to present them with an answer to global warming. They're waiting for Gore. I have to be careful what I say here. I've already erased a sentence or two for the angry replies I know I'll get. Our thinking is incorrect. People keep thinking there is something we have to do about global warming. This is 180 degrees off. We can solve the problem without doing anything. And in fact that is the answer. "Oh no it isn't", I hear coming at me already. It's about that drive to the store you don't make. It's about that Summer of Love reunion that you don't fly to. It's about that trip to Europe that you don't make. It's about the child that you don't have. And these are all extremely threatening. These threaten people with boredom. And the excuses fly. I've already tested them on people for years. The answers are outright defiant. They will have as many children as they want. They will continue traveling. And why not? Who am I to tell anyone what to do? And travel broadens the mind. And children are a joy.

1000 barrels of oil per second. That is what we are burning on planet earth.

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BornagainDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
13. There is all of that but...
what must remembered is that Bush and the Saudis depend on oil for their private power. That is what keeps this mindless obsession with oil as if it is the only way to power the planet. These bastards have systematically and vigorously obstructed attempts to develop alternatives.
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scarletwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
14. Thank you! Nice to see the hard light of truth gleam out amidst all the vacuous twaddle. (nt)
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
16. Well let's get that $1/barrel oil already
We're doing a rather bad job at obtaining that objective.
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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
17. Kick n/t
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Raster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-26-07 08:41 PM
Response to Original message
20. The Texas-American Petroleum Cartel and their business partners, the Saudi Royals
will make sure the puppet bush*/cheney* government does whatever is necessary to maintain control of those petroleum reserves. For the life of me, I don't understand why the citizens of this country continue to tolerate the bloodsucking by the Cartel. And when I say Cartel, I mean exxon/mobile and their gang of petro-hooligans.

Wake up America!:kick:

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