Iran: Victory will Defeat Us.

[illinoisprogressive]

Most Americans have been led to believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demands the destruction of Israel; even if he had not been misquoted, he could never achieve such a goal without bringing an end to his own nation's long history. Bush has told the world that Iran is arming the Iraqi insurgency -- an inane and obvious lie, reminiscent of the falsehoods told to justify the Iraqi invasion. Why would Shi'ite Iran arm the Sunnis? In fact, good evidence suggests that aid to Iraq's Sunnis is coming from Saudi Arabia -- which really wants no part in the conflict, but which is being forced to act in a more high-profile fashion. Indeed, Iraq may soon turn into a Saudi/Iranian proxy war.

Today, we learn that Hillary Clinton backs military action:

“U.S. policy must be clear and unequivocal: We cannot, we should not, we must not permit Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons. In dealing with this threat as I have said for a very long time, no option can be taken off the table.”

By what right would we attack a nation that has never gone to war with us or with its neighbors?

The History Channel neglected to mention a key fact that everyone else knows: Any aerial attack on Iran will almost certainly go nuclear, especially if Iran's fearsome Sunburn missiles destroy one of our warships. How can we justify a nuclear first strike to prevent the spread of nuclear weaponry?

Iran did not attack us on 9/11. Osama Bin Laden is Saudi, the hijackers were Saudi, much of the money was Saudi. Al Qaeda was largely a creation of Pakistani intelligence, and Pakistan is the current home of the movement. Yet America did nothing to discourage Pakistan from developing nuclear weaponry. The Pakistani bomb was created with Saudi financing and encouragement. Some say we covertly aided that development.

Yet Bush has decreed that Pakistan may do that which Iran may not. Thus, we are being prepared for a third World War -- one which will throw the entire region into chaos.

Why? Scott Ritter gives one origin theory in his book Target Iran:

"the conflict currently underway between the United States and Iran is, first and foremost, a conflict born in Israel. It is based upon an Israeli contention that Iran poses a threat to Israel, and defined by Israeli assertions that Iran possesses a nuclear weapons program. None of this has been shown to be true, and indeed much of the allegations made by Israel against Iran have been clearly demonstrated as being false."

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

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[PATRICK]

2. Result prediction

The sad time has come when one must look at the cradle of the beast to be born again. At this stage on DU before Iraq there debates on the likely military actions, successes and dangers, the pretexts for initiation of war and possible escalation if WMD's were used, and the most accurate forecasting of results in the occupation aftermath.

Despite the fact that predictions were wearily born out without some of the wildest predictions and with a stunning display of prejudicial incompetence in the Bush plan, the mind reels at doing it all over again.

Difficulties in this "war" upcoming. Our ground capabilities are badly degraded and limited with a tougher task should one even want to move in on ports or oil fields in a limited fashion. The old "drop 50,000 troops into the center" shortcut is out of the question as are second fronts, allies, etc. Giving in and letting Israel participate would be limited to a first strike Israeli "surprise" that one would think needs a pretext this time. The US stays close in to get involved one way or another, and take over perhaps with some utterly disingenuous claims to restore order. Our Naval and air forces make for smaller targets, protected tough by high tech invincibility that will receive- as did our army- the sorest test imaginable.

Do we have enough ships and planes and missiles? Are those armaments good enough to destroy the so-called nuclear targets? Let's set aside the fear that big ships can be sunk and planes taken down for a moment. The facilities can at the least be messed up and disrupted for years. The land can be poisoned by us or the result of destruction. But it all can be rebuilt so that is not the primary mission really. The mission is to stop a nation from setting up a nuclear check to Israel and getting a prominence in the oil cartel through possession of nukes. Temporarily and as a warning that can be done even without completely taking out the facilities.

A major and underestimated goal is regime change. An at least chastened and recast Iranian government will move away from nukes and the anti-israel strategy toward the path of moderation and democracy it was on before being rebuffed by the WH and set up by Mahmoud for this senseless confrontation. All of what they wanted to achieve, even a long term anti-Israel policy, could have been achieved without fearless leader's daring ways.

The US strike will want to kill the Iranian government and Mr. A in particular, which up to now has been something the US has consistently failed to do in a war, pity for the collateral damage population. Mr. A seems not as paranoid as past targets and is perhaps not as protected, depending on distance instead of bunkers and doubles. Forget the US pushing moderates, now avidly anti-Bush, anti-US, to do the job simply because we mess up the countryside. The main path to success will be killing the leader and chaos. No matter how enraged or determined, that short term goal seems to be tempting and necessary in the Bushco/Israel big picture.

If things get real bad and global terrorism turns the heat up, nukes can be used- another, more hysterical plus in slamming down rivals even if it inflames them more than ever and even spreads more terrorism- also a plus for dictatorial schemes well under way in the US. Now we are into consequences after the Bushco "success" stage. Iraq is still something of a success in terms of what Bushco really wanted. Control of oil and a step to the next part of the game and let the ME wither after the oil is gone. A mess for success that tries to move past the minuses over the bodies of the entire world's opposition.

The Sunnis were dis-empowered in Iraq and became the insurgency. Nothing that sectarian will happen in Iran, but forget Shiite oil empire, it will be a fiercely hate inspired atmosphere of revenge and long term animosity toward the US. The more the Dems line up for this war, the more the entire US will suffer. Roses in the streets of Baghdad this time is supposed to be moderates taking over from religious hardliners and blaming their leaders not the US. Because team Bush offers NOTHING other than violence and self profit to any strategy and their intransigence in never using diplomacy other than with willing puppets(even then supremely abusive), this fond hope is doomed even as a concept. Already we have lost the groups that normally the CIA would boost to power, unless we would like to give new lifelong enemies a hand as we did in Iraq.

Any attempts by the US to station forces or expand the war will make things worse, including more major acts of terrorism from many Islamic groups that have nothing now to do with Iran. Protecting oil fields or the straits will mark targets and fill them with more US soldiers to strike out against. That will expand violence to Shiite Iraq. Time is not our friend. Anything less than quick stoppage and hands off will expand the war. Buscho is incapable of sensible managing disaster. This is a rule of illogic.

Fear and repression in the US, the further retreat of all hesitant quibblers and passive delayers, is counted on as a success by Bushco. That too will get messy. We could all find ourselves in Baghdad, angry despairing, dying, tearing at each other while the emergency government of Bush hides in its desertifying "Green" Zone.

As much as Bush/Cheney will fail, their success is simply in the doing and continuing. It has and always will cost everyone else in the world everything they have. The only scenario that counts or has ever counted is stopping them and the forces they represent and bringing them to world justice. Then we will have to start all over again with the same worsened problems that we allow Bush to deal with in utter madness and evil.

That is the Dems' flaw still, dealing with details and not the cause. If some sanction "action against Iraq" they sanction a monstrosity because monsters implement policy. Forget Iran and deal with the real barrier that has superimposed itself on all suckers, the firm intent of Bushoil to steal the world before the oil runs out. The Bush Green Zone of media, fraud and power must fall.