How Would America React to Another Depression?

[marmar]

by Mike Garibaldi Frick at HuffPost:
How Would America React to Another Depression?
Posted August 21, 2007 | 10:14 PM (EST)


American culture, politics and values have changed dramatically since the "great generation" went through the Great Depression. Americans have become more materialistic, less engaged, less educated, more dogmatically religious and more entitled than ever. The fourth estate is in shambles. Our constitution, privacy, ethos and freedoms are under continual attack by the executive and judicial branches. The tentacles of a bloated bureaucracy impede progress almost everywhere while oversight within our government is almost non-existent.

The near term economic outlook is not good. Our national debt is near nine trillion (a record $29,700 for every US citizen) with China increasingly holding the purse strings. In 2006, over 406 billion was spent on interest payments on this debt alone. Our infrastructure is slowly eroding and cronyism and corruption runs rampant. Corporations, driven as they are entirely by an insatiable need for bigger profits, have become beholden to short term results and temporary capital investment strategies. Higher paying jobs are following blue collar jobs overseas. Our dependence on foreign oil and cheap debt weaken our ability to react to economic shifts. Many economists are alarmed.

Maybe after so many years of Bush "leadership" and the predictable, mindless mob mentality he both choreographed and commanded in the wake of 911, I've become cynical about how America would react to an economic collapse. instead of electing real leadership to bring the country and world together, our society's reaction to 911 was to give up liberties for "protection" and turning to the socially dividing, fear mongering neocons. What would happen, then, if the entire middle class was thrust into poverty?

Not the type of recession where the middle class needs to cut back on vacations or keep the family car a few more years, but the kind of poverty where it is impossible to get work, even a McJob. And forget about trying to pay the mortgage, it's a struggle just keep the heat and electricity on and put food on the table. The entire United States could turn into the Rust Belt, but worse. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-garibaldi-frick/how-would-america-react-t_b_61345.html

[depakid]

1. It would depend very much on the region

The South, South West (including SoCal) and lower midwest would NOT be places anyone would want to be- for a variety of reasons.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

4. Because?

Why?

:shrug:

(just a thought, you might not actually reside in those regions, nor have you)


MKJ

[depakid]

12. Why?

A couple of reasons.

First of all in the South lower midwest- where my whole family is from and still lives- you have a very BAD mix of poor to non-existent public transportation, pentecostal and fundamentalist religion, guns and supposed "individualism" "what's mine is mine" that guns are not only used - but people actively advocate their use- to protect.

Not to mention the lowest social capital rankings in the country.

The disaffected formerly middle will NOT be pleasant to be around in your scenario.

Second- I lived in So Cal for many years- and have spent considerable time in Arizona. Take away the burgeoning economy and add to it rising energy and water costs and you got the makings of Okies. Lots of them. Also, it's damned unpleasant in Phoenix or the valleys north and east of LA without cheap air conditioning or petroleum.

My thoughts are that you might want to consider things like that.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

13. Oh, it's the "BAD" mix of people. Thanks for clarifying.

MKJ

[depakid]

14. Clue in

It's the mix of sociological, cultural, land use planning (or the lack thereof) and climate factors that will make the region and the formerly middle class as a whole unpleasant to be around during and after a collapse.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

20. Well, I guess I can always cling to one sliver of hope...

YOU won't be here.

MKJ

[depakid]

48. Unfortunately, the reverse will not be true

I expect to see a lot of refugees from ill prepared and unsustainable parts of the country.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

54. I am in a part of the Southwest that is hardly "unsustainable"

Grew up here, and have a good understanding of living off the land.

There is water, there is rain, and our indigenous plants are mostly succulents, another source Of course, I'm at the base of a mountain range with yearly snow pack. And, the foothills have good soil, as long as one is not trying to grow orange trees.

We are semi-arid here, that one notch above arid is very important.
Perhaps those in deserts are the demographic to whom you are addressing these concerns.

Sorry that I said I didn't want your company.

MKJ

[Ghost in the Machine]

6. Can you provide a few of those reasons, since there's a variety of them?

I live in the South and I'd really like to know...

[Extend a Hand]

7. I dunno

I frequently see the South in lists of places not to be in a crisis...but I'm not so sure an economic crisis would make things all that much different in many parts of the rural south.

[eridani]

19. The southeast has plenty of what the southwest doesn't have

Water.

[Ghost in the Machine]

2. Poorly?

:shrug:

[skids]

3. Ow. n/t

[warren pease]

5. Wait a few months and find out for yourself. n/t

[SteppingRazor]

8. Mike Garibaldi, you don't know frick.

First off, the dude's blatantly wrong in his opening line. Americans today are hardly "less educated" or "less engaged" than in the 1920s. If anything, we're overeducated today, and with today's mass media, we're better-informed than the typical American of 80 years ago could ever hope to be. More dogmatically religious? I think even that is certainly up for debate. At least one can say one is an atheist today and not be blackballed from the community -- depending on where one lives, of course.

And more materialistic? More materialistic than whom? Gilded age robber barons? Jazz Age flappers? Oh, come now.

I agree with much of the rest of Frick's piece -- that we are in perilous economic times. But I think his characterization of modern Americans -- likely aimed, as is typical, at the X and Y generations that I straddle -- is demonstrably misinformed in some cases (I mean, less educated? Seriously?) and likely misinformed in others.

[Deja Q]

23. Since everybody praises Reagan, the last 25+ years have had Americans more materialistic.

But people were still baited by advertisements. For example, how many people really need a big boat?

Television is arguable for some; typically introverts and the incapable-of-being-social.

Computers are a given, as we use them for everything in our lives. Particularly work.

Technology in all things advances, but most people should upgrade every other release and not for every single release. Or at least put out releases farther apart.

Most people need cars; but cars go from being frugal with fuel to seemingly wasteful. And all that is a separate argument because 'wasteful' may not be so 'wasteful' under certain scenarios...

The truth is in the middle.

[treestar]

25. But what of the quality of the education?

People know more facts, but are they as logical as they used to be?

People know a lot about their specialities but usually don't have a big picture view of the world.

Though with the time that unemployment would give them, they might end up actually thinking. Especially if most people around them were in the same boat.

[tinrobot]

31. Exactly -- 1929 was not a pretty place.

1929 was a year of rampant segregation and lynchings in the South, women had barely gotten the vote and were still expected to stay home and raise children, and gays were outcasts. Despite our current problems, we're still way ahead of 1929 culturally.

[raccoon]

32. Thanks for the heads up, Steppin.

"Americans today are hardly "less educated" or "less engaged" than in the 1920s. "

Made me realize the article isn't worth the read.

[kitty44]

9. I'm considering getting out of stocks...

...and buying gold. Seems like a smart thing to do?

[pitohui]

10. they would just pretend they didn't notice, as they did in the early 90s

think about all the boarded up homes foreclosed on in the RTC era, 50,000 in new orleans area alone, RTC one of the biggest (maybe was the biggest) owner of residential real estate in the usa as a result of the S&L crisis

did anyone much do anything except maybe a few postal workers shooting at each other?

no, what everyone did was pretend it wasn't happening and try to hit up everyone they knew for loans that they never paid back

the entire middle class isn't thrust into poverty, most of us are unable to pay for basics like health care already, which makes us poor if we're honest about it, but there are always the outliers who get the six figure incomes -- and those people claim "hey we're middle class too"

there will be a middle class, it will just be the more modest rich people

and the former middle class will be dismissed as losers

same way it worked before :shrug:

[Zodiak]

21. I agree

Americans of today will deny it.

And who is to break their denial? The media?

A Democrat?

No...we will go into denial and then hurl stones at whomever dares to tell the truth. Same as it has been for quite some time.

And it will make our fall that much harder.

[Mojorabbit]

43. I disagree

my 72 year old mother with a sixth grade education who reads the paper everyday sees it. She tells me everyday on the phone to cut back on any unnecessary spending because she sees things getting very bad.
It is prety obvious after all.

[Extend a Hand]

45. I agree that people will ignore the collapse

as long as they possibly can. I think the collapse is already well underway...things are falling apart one family at a time...starting with the poor and working class. I would disagree that a six-figure income makes someone 'rich.' $100,000/year is the approximate household income of two teachers with 15 years experience in the midwest-- that's solidly middle class not rich.

Even during the great depression the extent of the collapse wasn't really understood until well after the fact. Look at what is happening in Iraq-- people are doggedly trying to find some kind of 'normal' even in the face of occupation and all out civil war.

[pitohui]

56. a $100K annual income makes you hugely rich to me, no offense!

those "solidly" middle class people do not have a clue what most people earn or what the median income is in the usa, i guess

maybe that's sort of the point of my post -- a minority of the people get the goodies and they have no idea how the rest of us are struggling already

[Extend a Hand]

57. Please don't make those working stiffs that were LUCKY enough

to manage to fare slightly better under a rigged system to be un-empathetic villains.

Most people that are making 100,000/year didn't jump into the job market making that much. Because a family is not currently struggling doesn't mean they have never struggled or that they never will. Two teachers at midpoint in their careers make slightly more than double the median income. That still isn't rich... not even close. The fact that they are in the middle of their careers means they DO have a really good idea of what it means to get by on a whole lot less. Many (if not most) families bringing in $100,000 a year are one divorce, catastrophic medical emergency, or job loss away from foreclosure and/or bankruptcy. Many are nearing the end of their careers (in the increasingly unlikely event that they've managed to save enough retire on).

The median 2005 income was around $46,000. A household living on the median income are (sadly) now likely to be the working poor (i.e. 2 income earners making 11.25/hr with no insurance), thanks in large part to republican policies starting with the evil ray-gun. I believe that republicans were successful in implementing these disastrous policies in part by conflating the notions of wealth and a high earned income. They managed to convince a lot of people that if you work hard enough that you too can become 'rich.' It's just not true.

What does it mean to you to be the 'working poor', 'middle class', 'upper middle class', 'rich'?

Here's what they mean to me...
you don't have to work for a living? (rich)
you make the median with one income earner and have health insurance and no more than two kids and are under 40? (middle-class just barely)
own a home? (depends on where you live)
you can't pay the gas bill in full in the middle of the winter? (working poor)
you have to sometimes put off paying the electric company until you get the 'brown envelope'? (working poor)
you can't go to the grocery at the end of the pay period? (working poor)
you get to buy a new or late model used car instead of a beater? (middle-class)
a divorce, job loss or medical emergency wouldn't be an economic catastrophe? (rich or maybe upper middle class if the medical emergency wasn't too catastrophic or you found a comparable job relatively quickly)
you'll get to retire someday? (doubtful for most of the middle class maybe for civil servants or employees of large companies with solvent defined benefit pension plans) (possible but increasingly unlikely upper middle class if you saved instead of living large AND the fed doesn't inflate the savings away AND you work for a company with some kind of pension plan)

This guy has some interesting factoids about wealth, income and the bill of goods we've (collectively) been sold.

http://www.jmooneyham.com/rich-reference.html#section28

[Ready4Change]

11. Denial.

For as long as they possibly can.

[Va Lefty]

15. It would be extremely ugly in some of the country

There would be alot of finger-pointing at the usual suspects by the wingnuts, egged on by MSM. There are already alot of angry, heavily armed people out there who have been told for years that it's someone else's fault they don't have a nice car or a big house or health insurance or a good job. I suspect a real depression would push them over the edge. All that crap we hear about how "when the chips are down, all Americans pull together and help one another", yeah that's gonna happen. It would not be pretty.

[Deja Q]

24. I wonder if that's why more jails are being built?

[treestar]

26. The undocumented immigrants are being set up for it

Along with the Arabs/Muslims. It would be a free for all blaming of foreigners, legal and illegal. With the Chinese figuring in on it, Asians would be targets.

[MissMarple]

16. Americans in the 20's weren't exactly an example of bucolic idealism.

They were just people, quite a bit less hampered by technology, but overall, not so different than we are. Get a grip guys. Please.....people are people....were are pretty much the same across time. Cultural differences and world views aside, we all want pretty much the same thing. And, we always have. Think about it.

[cherokeeprogressive]

17. The third paragraph of your post gave you away. Blind hatred of * isn't rational.

The problems this country faces are ONLY SEVEN YEARS OLD? Come on.

See, I'm a fan of Americans. When the chips are down, there are no better people to rely on. For anything.

The doomsayers are just that. Nothing more. We will survive, and come out of the other end of the tunnel better, stronger, and more resolute.

That is, if the media and the doomsayers here haven't already beaten the American Spirit into the dust.

Question: Do you really, in your heart of hearts, think that the American Gubmint would allow China to take ownership of this country? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the United Nations recognizes Eminent Domain as a Government's right to take ownership of land.

[treestar]

27. Sure they would

Via corporations.

They must be involved with the Chinese now. These are people who know where to invest their money.

It would be THEM taking over the country via China.

I'm not a fan of all Americans. Like any other group, we have our scoundrels. Problem is lately we've put them in charge.

[marmar]

29. Gave me away?

Dude, I posted an article from HuffPost. I didn't write it. :think:

[lpbk2713]

18. And we're stuck with the BushCo regime for seventeen more months.

It's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

[Deja Q]

22. Since the government only considers banks and large corporations to be citizens,

that $29.7k figure must equally be incorrect?

China's purported strength is useless too. Who'd buy that debt? And with China selling us increasing quantities of toxic garbage, that rather ruins their credibility. The 'free market' will just move to another country.

Whatever happens happens, and many things can be hypothesized or conjectured. As stranger things have happened and predicted ones have not, it's silly to take much of anything at face value. Period.

Indeed, I could post some 6 scenarios based on existing criteria. Half are bad; half are good - especially if you consider thinking theoretical long term.

Whatever happens happens. All we can do, regardless of political orientation, is wait and see and go from there.

[spanone]

28. it might serve to wake this nation up!

[tom_paine]

30. Not entirely unlike how the Germans reacted to the Great Depression

No, not entirely unlike that, at all.

[cascadiance]

33. What probably kept things sane with the first Republican Depression was the family farm!

... which is fast on its way to not existing any more with the corporatizing of that older institution.

A lot of people suffered in those days, but the family farm offered a lot of hope for those without anything, where they could negotiate a place to live and eat with farmers in exchange for them working on such farms, as a sort of "alternative" economy when the government was failing. With our environment today this probably isn't possible in any significant way.

Add to that, compared to then, the availability of far more powerful arms/weaponry for trying to force others to cede property and services is a lot more today than then too, which for some might be felt more practical to use as a means of survival than just honestly working for food and shelter like was done then.

Sadly, I think a serious depression might become more like a scene out of Mad Max than what we used to have in the depression in the old days. I think that's what many of the "ownership society" Republicans today still fail to realize. That democratic government is what so much provides them the protection for them to have what they have, as long as others are taken care of to some extent. They keep advocating pushing that limit of taking care of others, and at some point it will explode, and we'll have a very lawless society.

[raccoon]

34. "The Great Depression left a lot of people disillusioned. Another

depression will leave America's cities in ashes."

Can't remember where I read that, but I believe that person had it right.

[lumberjack_jeff]

35. We're in an intellectual box. The question isn't how we'd react to a depression...

It's if our economy would survive it.

FDR made the country the employer of last resort. With a $9 trillion debt, it's unlikely that the current US government could do that for long.

"Depression" isn't the ultimate possible catastrophe.

[havocmom]

36. Considering how many urban dwellers there are now, and how few people know how to garden and can,

starvation will be a problem.

After the initial whining, there will be some seriously rude awakening and realization of the difference between 'need' and 'want'.

On the up side, people might become more involved with parenting their kids. When the power gets turned off and the entertainment toys don't work, there will have to be more real interaction with the youngsters. That would be a good thing. Kids raised by electronic babysitting devices are not served well. Having people spend time and talk to them would be a step in the right direction.

Reading might make a comeback too.

But I do seriously worry about hunger. It will be huge.

[cascadiance]

37. And then one might ask are there jobs that "Americans won't do"...

I think when that time comes, Americans will discover that thet they CAN do these jobs, and that in fact they MUST do these jobs!

[havocmom]

38. Jobs Americans are willing to do already going to others

IT, construction, meat packing plants, landscaping, medical transcribers, mortgage loan processors... I know people in those occupations who have been made obsolete by cheaper, less insistent on safe condition foreign labor.

Things are NOT always as the greedy employers portray them.

[here_is_to_hope]

39. You are right in that...

...food, our weakest link.
It wouldnt take much to disrupt the manufacture and distribution of edibles. One, the entire food supply is keyed to petroleum. Two, there maybe 'stockpiles' but when that system is depleted, its going to get messy.
I recall when Y2K came around, a friend said worse comes to worse, he would come up to Montana and hunt, I explained to him that not only would every one have the same idea about harvesting game but that there are no longer the large wild populations of game out there.
Food, its my biggest worry and one that forced me to learn as much as I can about growing and harvesting our own.

[The2ndWheel]

44. Upside down economics

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2007/07/upside-down-economics.html

Check out that second chart. The price we pay for wanting/allowing agricorporations to own food.

[skater314159]

49. Luckily...

... there are many young people like myself that were raised in large part, or completely, by Grandparents, Great-Aunts, and other older relatives during their childhood. Because my family were immigrants and first-generation-ers, they had a lifestyle different from the dominant American cultural paradigm.

I know how to garden (organically even!), quilt, make my own clothing, recycle/reuse things, repair stuff, use natural/herbal remidies, and other stuff that many Americans don't know how to do - or worse, don't care about doing...

If there is a collapse of some sort, people like me can share our knowledge!

An economic depression would also mean that people who didn't care about things like community, collectivism, naturalism, simple living, and environmentalism will suddenly be forced to either make decisions or die. I don't minimise loss of people's lives, but if faced with a serious problem, I think most people will learn and adapt.

Such a problem could be a Renaissance for America... or it could be its destruction. I prefer to remain an Optimist!

Peace! :hippie:

[havocmom]

52. People like you will be the leaders

My daughter is working to learn really practical skills. Her office worker colleagues used to laugh at her for it. After nearly 800 people in the same business lost their jobs in the same city just last Thrusday, they aren't laughing so much.

People with skills in basic things will be very important. You are lucky to have been raised the way you were.

:hi:

[skater314159]

53. Thanks

You post made me feel really happy... but also nervos. I'm too shy to be a leader :P

Peace! :hippie:

[havocmom]

55. Some people lead well by example

:hug: you will rise to the occasion.

Been advocating for people to teach youngsters to grow food plants. Great way to get some good science lessons through to kids. There are things to teach all ages out in the garden and sometimes, the best people to reach kids are those who are a bit shy and quiet.

[SunDrop23]

40. That's simple: blame Bill Clinton. Next question.

[Javaman]

41. Want to know right now? go to Flint, Michigan.

that will give you a prime example.

Unemployment through the roof, major housing bubble causing whole neighborhoods to vanish, no hope of new jobs for a very long time, etc.

[marmar]

42. Actually, I lived in Grand Blanc for a while, which is a suburb to the south of Flint....

So I know of what you speak. Not a pretty pic.

[Jed Dilligan]

46. Suburbia will be a nightmare

Take away the jobs and what do you have? A whole bunch of uselessness. People stranded far from basic services. Lawns going to seed, boarded up houses, wild dogs, roving gangs.

Eventually, the land will convert back to the truck farms that should never have been replaced with it. People will re-urbanize or re-ruralize. This will be good in the long run but in the short run, I would choose to be in the city or countryside.

[skater314159]

50. I view that sort of SubUrban Distopia as Karmic payback for what Suburbs are today. n/t

[libodem]

47. At this point if it affected the

the top 1% of the top 1% of the richest fatcats, who don't want to share the tax money, on their wealth, with the poorest of the poor....open those Wall Street windows and let the jumping begin! Fuck them. We are already poor and struggling. Which is just Bush's concession to appease Osama and Prince Bandar, because we soft American's have had it too easy for their taste. They won't quit bringing us down until we are no more than slave labor. Why do you think they want our Mexicans to stay home? So we will have to take those 'good' fruit pickin' jobs. With all the insecticide, tall ladders, hot sun, and back breaking conditions. Nothing is too undignified for the 'little people'. Have an apple. (forgive me this is all bullshit insanity talking, I just hate the state of the world these days, sorry) Ah, shit, let 'em jump.

[skater314159]

51. Vent away my friend...

... I hear you. I feel your pain.

If possible, write emails venting to Republicans in the House and Senate; Email the White House.

I do that regularly, and it is really cathartic! It helps me to unload all the negativity I see and feel during the day. Working as a Chaplain/Social Worker gets you down when you see how the government is fucking over good, honest, hard-working men and women every day. It sucks when you see the state of our nation's parks, historic sites, schools, hospitals, Indian Reservations and other institutions, and you know that the government doesn't even give a damn. The only thing we can do is to continue to be strong.

Peace! :hippie: