If Mittens gets the GOP nod: Can he win the fundamentalist south?

[WI_DEM]

given that he is a Morman, do you think that Mittens can win the fundamentalist/protestant vote which may not think that being a Morman is a real religion, or will he say the right things and just being a republican will most southern states vote for him anyway.

I think we have a real window of opportunity in the South in Mitt or Guiliani are nominated. Guiliani because he's a socially liberal New Yorker. I think that if we play our cards straight and put a distinguished southerner on the ticket (somebody like Gen. Wes Clark) we could take a few southern states from the GOP base.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I Would Be Surprised If Any Southern State Flips

Florida and Virginia are possible candidates but they are purple not red or blue states...

There has been a southerner on the ticket the last two elections and the Democrats have been shut out in the South...

The South has gone from having Yellow Dog Democrats to Yellow Dog Republicans...

I do think an Edwards-Bill Nelson ticket would make Florida really intersting though...

[WI_DEM]

2. But the GOP is likely not to nominate the usual fundamentalist Chrisitian candidate in '08

either. I'm thinkinig it's going to be either Mitt or Rudy and I think they are both vulnerable among that fundamental base of the GOP. Not that they will vote Dem, but they might decide not to vote at all or go third party for president.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Reagan And Bush Pere Weren't Fundies And They Swept The South By Saying The Right Thing...

As a Floridian I'd love to see an Edwards-Nelson ticket and watch the battle royale in my own state...

[salin]

5. If a whole lot of folks don't turn out... more states could go into play.

Turn out, turn out, turn out will be the name of the game in a lot of states - and a number of the GOP top tiers have a whole lot of reasons for repubs to not go vote.

[salin]

3. Which is worse for him in the south... the flipflopping on social issues, or the Mormanism?

I think all of the clips of his earlier pro-choice and pro-gay rights stands while running for different offices will do more damage - as he just looks like an opportunist, ala - so this guy says anything to get elected...

I think Mitt would keep alot of folks home and away from the polls (folks who "couldn't bring him/herself to vote for a dem"...)

[KharmaTrain]

4. Third Party Time...

I predicted this right after last year's election...and I'm more convinced than ever that we're about to see a big schism in the GOOOP.

There's a lot of discontent in that "Big Tent". Besides the Fundies, the Libertarian branch has come alive...witness Ron Paul...and whomever wins the nomination will surely piss off one, if not both groups. I could see Paul bolting and trying to revive the Perot playbook...and could become a major irritant for the Repugnicans next year. I also will stick by my prediction that Newtie will also break with the party...try to go for the fundies. If neither of these scenarios happen, then I expect those people to stay home.

[salin]

8. I think there will be the lowest GOP turnout... in years.

Due to said schisms.

[KharmaTrain]

11. Agreed, My Friend

Dare I say I think we're on the cusp of what is termed a "generational" election...one that could define, not necessarily the Democrats, but the Repugnicans for many years to come.

We could see a swing along the lines of a 1932 or '64 coming here if the Democrats play it smart and the GOOP continues to eat itself. The boooosh/rove legacy will be the destruction of the "Raygun revolution"...now how long will it take for the party to recover?

:hi:

[salin]

12. Real-time Poetic Justice ala Rove and DeLay

they set out to realign politics and make a defacto one-party rule "for a generation"... and they may have done that (yet to be seen) just not how they intended... but by making their party so out of step and repugnant to the public due to the arrogance of their policies and the naked contempt they have shown that they hold for regular citizens.

It is possible that this is one of those very, very rare political eras where a major party dies off - due to schisms and what not.

:hi:

[KharmaTrain]

15. Affirmation

When I started seeing slimebags like Gingrich appear on the scene in the late 70s and early 80s and then into the Rushbo/DeLay era of the 90s, I kept thinking that these were just squeaky wheels getting the biggest grease. They'd learned how to manipulate the media and through it created a personna of a majority that was a mile wide and an inch thick. The concept that this was a "conservative" country never set well with me...as much as a "liberal" one never would...it's a rather moderate country that yins and yangs between one side and the other...we saw it go left in the 60's, right in the 80's and guess what time it is now. :bounce:

The "Southern Strategy" did work...as long as the balancing act also worked...and you could job the refs and rig the system wherever possible. But it was all a balancing act predicated on a lot of promises...big promises...made to a lot of diverse groups and bonded together by issues like racism, sexism, homophobia and overall self-imposed ignorant elitism...the parallel universe.

Rove and DeLay thought they had the flow of information and "the message" covered, they didn't count on some DFH's in mom's basement and Howard Dean being more than a passing fancy. This underestimation has come home to roost now, and they're having to be reactive rather than proactive...the Mighty Wurlitzer is losing its tune.

:toast:

[NewJeffCT]

16. We should start a "Draft Roy Moore" movement

After all, Republics attempted to fund/support some Green candidates in order to take away Dem votes.

[meow2u3]

7. Only if he converts to a Southern Baptist

BTA, the voters may suspect he converted only to get elected :shrug:

[NewJeffCT]

9. never underestimate the capacity for the fundies leaders

to justify voting Republican, no matter the candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Ding, Ding, Ding...We Have A Winner

eom

[msongs]

13. he has an endless supply of church supplied cash at hand nt

[porphyrian]

14. I don't think the Mormon thing goes too far with Southern Baptists.

We have a lot of Southern Baptists.

[Bake]

31. When I was a much younger Southern Baptist

We referred to Mormonism as a "cult." Which was a bad thing. I think there's still a lot of that residue.

But I think they'll hold their noses and vote for Mitt anyway, because their leaders will tell them to. There's a reason Jesus referred to His followers as "sheep."

Bake

[TlalocW]

17. I think what we're going to see happening

Is that the southern religious leaders who subtly and not-so-subtly push for the GOP will push for Mittens, but the base, who have had a steady diet of Mormonism = Cult from those same leaders will have problems voting for him. Combine that with the general voter malaise they suffered in 2006, they'll stay home from the polls.

TlalocW

[BlooInBloo]

18. We're the party of niggers and faggots as far as they're concerned....

... There's exactly ZERO chance of them voting for us. When they see how racist mormonism is, they'll be all on board with the Mittster.

[radfringe]

19. sure he can

all he has to do is to apply his flip-flops to religion and have a conversion on stage to the majority religion of that city/town

if you don't like this version of Jesus, wait a minute.... :evilgrin:

[vireo]

20. Well, the South voted for a Jew and a Catholic in 1964

I doubt that Mormonism will be a pivotal issue.

[LostinVA]

26. Oh yes it will

I've known quite a few Southern Baptist and Fundamentalists. Most won't overlook the LDS thing.

[trashcanistanista]

21. No.

He will not be able to take the south. That's why I hope he gets the nomination. I speak from my experience of southern relatives.

[TwilightGardener]

22. Of course. They'll vote for whom they're told. Then those neanderthals

will be able to pat themselves on the back for their newfound "tolerance". Watch it happen. Money, power, and image is what dazzles the fundies more than anything.

[Richard Steele]

27. Yes they will; the question is "how many?"

The danger for them isn't that the red areas of the south
will vote for anyone but the Repub nominee; that won't happen.

But a large portion of the rank-and-file would probably
stay home and not vote at all, rather than vote for a Mormon.

I think a Romney nomination would lead to some record LOW
repub turnouts in the reddest areas of the South.

[TwilightGardener]

28. Honestly, I think he'll win them over enough to compete pretty well, if

he stops making so many gaffes. The fear of a Democrat in the WH will loom very large.

[Richard Steele]

29. He'll only have months to do it; their church leaders have been demonizing Mormons all their lives.

He's got a serious uphill battle to win over
the "B*sh base" twenty-five-percenters. They've
been taught to hate & mistrust Mormons just as
much as the "eevil libruls".

I think a lot of them won't ever vote for Mitt
under any circumstances.

[merh]

23. with Jeb as his VP

he could flip the south

[ButterflyBlood]

30. Any Bush on a ticket is political suicide now

Will not happen.

[Hawkowl]

24. Not if

The dem nominee plays hardball and puts out information on the Mormon religion and drawing a very easily discernible line between "southern Christians" and "polygamist cultists".

[ButterflyBlood]

25. He still wins

Of course there's lower turnout and people are upset, but what do you expect the fundies to do, vote for the Democrat? Not going to happen.

[noonwitch]

32. It depends on his running mate.

I think that Hillary, Edwards or Obama could sweep the floor with Mitt during a debate.

[derby378]

33. Two words for y'all: BOY SCOUTS

The BSA is becoming dominated more and more by conservative LDS types, so I think the Boy Scout families will probably all go for Romney regardless of denomination.

[Pyrzqxgl]

34. No matter what the case us Democrats are going to have to work our asses off!

[roamer65]

35. It depends on who our nominee will be as well.

Sorry HRC supporters, but she will be a tougher sell in the South. We'll hafta win out west if she is to become president. I personally think most of the South will go with Mittler over HRC, IMHO. There a reason they called it the "solid South".

[derby378]

37. I was pulling for Russ Feingold's campaign, but the South is why he dropped out

Said the fact that he was Jewish and twice-divorced wouldn't help him much in the Deep South. Still, I'd have loved to see a full-fledged campaign from him.

[saltpoint]

36. Any GOP ticket in 08 will face a much more animated Democratic

base. The tide has gone out on these fools and they're beached and gasping.

I don't think registered Republicans in hyper-rural Georgia and Alabama are going to vote Democratic in any significant numbrs, but in relatively fateful numbers they might opt to stay home. Giuliani's Catholic. Romney's Mormon. Hyper-rural Alabama demographc Republicans tend strongly toward the scorched-earth Protestant variety. They ain't gonna like nothin' out there this time. For them it will be a field of libruls and cultists, as far as the eye can see. Barring some sort of far-right kook campaign by Brownback or Judge Moore, many of them will just stay home.

Romney would carry the Alabama demographic but his personal faith (and general creepiness) will result in suppressing Republican turn-out iin other Southern states. That puts us in a far better position to carry the closer states. Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are strong possibilities for us in 08. Kentucky and West Virginia could be in play as well. Even two of those five states would give us the lock on the electoral college.

Giuliani is a revolting excuse for a presidential candidate. So far his numbers have held up fairly well, but they're already down a bit from just a couple months ago. I think this fall his GOP opponents are going to start to take him out. Back in early April he was riding pretty high. I don't think he gets to see numbers like that ever again.