There are three sets of issues in getting out: the logistical, the local Iraqi political security, and the strategic. Let's look at each one.
On the logistical side, there are 162,000 troops. If you just loaded them on airplanes, minus ALL their equipment, you could fly that many people out of Baghdad in - let's just approximate some numbers - 300 troops per aircraft average, a takeoff every 20 minutes, so 900 per hour, times 24 hours, so roughly,20,000 per day, or maybe a week and a half to fly everyone home. Of course, that's with nothing but their clothes on their back....if you start adding in what they should bring home, it adds up to several million tons of stuff that has to be moved, staged, and transported. If everything else just stopped, and we did nothing but backhaul, then maybe you could get out in six-eight months, plus a few more months for the clean-up of the sites. But everything won't just stop....
You have to imagine the psychological and political impact as we leave...at first, there's a dimuntion of violence and casualties....in back rooms and garages, and underground bunkers, the factions are planning and preparing, working to exploit the security and power vacuum that we will leave...They're asking themselves, how is the most effective and safest way to make their power known, and what do we have, as we're leaving *( and weaker on the ground) that they want? So as the drawdown progresses, the risks increase, until, by the end, we're left with a few thousand troops supported by airpower battling their way to Kuwait with their equipment, or clustered around the airport. Politically, what's left of the Iraqi government is unlikely to survive such an exit.
And so, this means that there will have to be polotical arrangements worked inside Iraq, and within the region, that can "cover" the withdrawal of the American forces. Maybe a series of understandings between neighboring states; maybe brokered agreements between factions, witnessed by neighboring states. Maybe there's a role for the Arab League, OIC, or UN.
But all of this has to be worked. And none of it has begun yet.
Al Qaeda will certainly claim to have driven us out, and around the world, Al Qaeda would gain new credibility as a powerful force, and win new adherents, perhaps. And this would have clear implications in Pakistan and Afghanistan...
And in the meantime, countries will be asking, "so, is this the end of America in the Mid East? Should we allow the Americans to continue to base their ships or land their aircraft here, or will that make us the next target? Must we make new security arrangements with other powers? Does this mean the Iranians will have a free hand in Iraq? Must we arm the Sunni's to resist? And the list of questions will go on....
So, all of this should give some pause to those who say, let's just pull out immediately, and demand that the troops come immediately.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/8/10437/18959I know this is not what a lot of people here want to hear from General Clark, but he's not one to not tell it like it is.