How long before the dollar crashes?

[Deja Q]

Bill Gates said it would, back in early 2005.

[dkofos]

1. Just in time for the new Dem President

[Pharaoh]

2. actually it is

in steep decline now, it is a slow motion crash till the bottom falls out.

[glowing]

3. I think its falling to make the Amero... Canada and the dollar are

almost equal..

[brokensymmetry]

9. Exactly.

Compare the value for 1975 versus 2005 - it's worth
about a quarter of what it was then.

So - if you had a house that was worth $100,000 in 1975
and it appreciated to $400,000 in 2005, you've just
stayed even.

If that trend continues, by 2020, it will have lost half
its value again...

[DFW]

4. The artifice will last longer than logic dictates

Countries like England and China are holding so many of them, they
don't want their investment to become worthless. Forget Saudi Arabia,
they are a nation of 5 million who can continue to sell their oil in any
currency they want.

But a country like China or Great Britian will not not want to see their
holdings (not to mention one of their best customers) go bust. Therefore,
against all logic, the USA not being a corporate entity subject to votes
from the stockholders or a person responsible for his debts, will continue
to prop up its currency for a good while to go. Ifd the price of gold suddenly
starts creeping up toward $1000 an ounce, or oil starts edging above $80 a
barrel, then it's time to wonder which government is slowly giving up on
the greenback. Until then, it's biz as usual.

[Deja Q]

6. Logical and very true. But it's time for politicians to take note:

Unfortunately, they have to realize if we keep offshoring, the crash WILL happen and a lot of foreign people will not be happy.

The Indians are happy right now. But for how long?

The Chinese are happy right now. But for how long?

The Europeans are happy right now. But for how long?

The Saudis are happy right now. But for how long?

The Americans will be happy, it won't take much. There's always a positive way to resolve things.

[Robson]

5. At some point critical mass will be achieved - when the world loses confidence

Apparently other countries still have more confidence in our government and dollar than many Americans.

We have massive problems with huge unfunded liabilities in total (fed, state, local government entitlements and pensions, and corporate pensions) combined with personal debt, and government foreign obligations due to current account deficits, combined with government current budget deficits......that only a dollar devaluation and inflation will correct.

I don't trust our government to tell us the straight scoop on inflation either.

[nolabels]

7. Bill Gates is an expert on crashes!

Some of them early versions Windows he helped sell could crash all by them selves while just sitting there doing nothing. If you think about it that really is quite an accomplishment and probably helps explain why he has made all that money :shrug:

[Turbineguy]

8. At least

Albania likes us.

[EV_Ares]

10. UN Report Says Dollar Crash 'll Affect World Economy

Voted; UN article on this.

31 May 2007
Posted to the web 31 May 2007
Constance Ikokwu
Washington D.C.

A new United Nations (UN) report released yesterday has warned that a crash in the United States dollar will be disastrous since the world economy is still tied to U.S. fortunes. It therefore called for concerted effort to keep the dollar from falling rapidly in order to prevent a recession.

"We call for a co-ordinated strategy that would think about how to adjust these global imbalances while avoiding recessionary tendencies in the global economy," said Rob Voss, Director of Development Policy and Analysis at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.


Painting a grim picture, the report titled "World Economic Situation and Prospects Mid-year Update" states that the slow-down in U.S. housing market is already a major factor in slowing world growth to 3.4 per cent for 2007, down from the 4 per cent achieved in 2006. Acknowledging that growth in other developing economies such as Japan and Europe remains strong, it states however that their roles are limited as major engines of global growth.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200705310796.html

[TreasonousBastard]

12. Just stating the obvious that our biggest trading parnters...

already know. This goes back to the 60s when European central banks were buying Eurodollars by the bushel every time the dollar fell out of bed.

Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, S. Korea, China... None of them will be killed if we go down, but all will be knocked around pretty badly, and they know it.

On a more visible level, remember when Trump went belly up a few times? The master of the deal managed to borrow a lot more than he could ever pay back. Unlike you or me, where the creditors would just come in and attach everything they could and chalk it up as bad business, he owed billions and writing it off at a nickel on the dollar just wouldn't do.

So, they hemmed and hawed and put his nuts on the fire as long as they could, but never shut him down. Trump ended up owning less than 10% of his former empire, but he didn't get thrown out in the street like we would. Fist on the minds of the creditors was how to keep the business running so they could get some more of their money back. And keep doing business with him.

So it is with us. The entire world has one overriding financial objective-- to keep us solvent. The real problem now is that the kiddies in charge are making absolutely no effort at all to help the situation, and are scaring tyhe crap out of everyone as it gets more dire every day.

Outsourcing and trade deficits are only symptoms of deeper problems in the short-term results aand growth numbers required by Wall Street.

[EV_Ares]

13. Exactly, Trump is a good analogy, borrow more than you can pay back and more

than they can afford to let you go under. However, it still all comes to roost sooner or later. Trumps bankers are not the other countries, China, etc., holding our debt. Sooner or later they are going to tire of having to print more money. There are serious cracks in our financial system right now with the idiots in control.

[Locrian]

11. so what do you do?

SO what do you do with investments, mutuals, 401k? Put it all in gold? Euros? Yen?

[Turbineguy]

14. Google

frontier markets.

As an aside, are there any real advantages to collapsing the U.S. dollar or is this just another "let's get those rich bastards!"

[Rydz777]

15. If I knew, I would become the next George Soros, but I agree

with the first post by dkofos that it will probably happen just in time to greet the new Democratic President in 2009. The sinking, or collapsing, dollar will be just one of the major crises that Bush's successor will have to face. I hope that the Iraq war will not be among them, but that will depend on the present Democratic Congress mustering the political will to use the power of the purse to stop it.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

16. If you owe the bank $10bn and can't pay, not you, but the bank is in trouble.

Right now China, Japan, etc are willing to prop up the house of cards so as not to be faced with an uncollectable debt that would undermine their own economies.

But, the real threat is that one of the major holders of our debt will attempt to unload some of that debt by switching to Euros or Yen and cause a stampede by the others to do the same.