New American Research Group early caucus/primary polling (for what little it's worth)

[Czolgosz]

I'm not a fan of over reliance on polls this early, and I'm not a fan of any reliance on national polls (because it is pointless to measure the efficacy of the campaigns in the states where the campaigns are not yet operating), but I think polls in states where the candidates are actively campaigning can be a good snapshot of how well the campaigns are succeeding at getting out their candidates' messages. In that context, here is what the American Research Group has just released for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina:

May 29, 2007 - Presidential Preferences

Democrats
IA -- NH -- SC

31% - 34% - 34% ... Clinton
25% - 18% - 30% ... Edwards
11% - 15% - 18% ... Obama
08% - 09% - 01% ... Richardson
04% - 02% - 02% ... Kucinich
03% - 03% - 02% ... Biden
02% - 03% - 01% ... Dodd
01% - 01% - 01% ... Clark
01% - 01% - 00% ... Gravel
14% - 14% - 11% ... Undecided



Republicans
IA -- NH -- SC

25% - 30% - 32% ... McCain
23% - 21% - 23% ... Giuliani
16% - 23% - 10% ... Romney
06% - 03% - 13% ... F Thompson
08% - 04% - 06% ... Gingrich
03% - 01% - 01% ... Brownback
02% - 01% - 01% ... Hagel
02% - 01% - 01% ... Huckabee
02% - 01% - 01% ... T Thompson
02% - 00% - 01% ... Tancredo
01% - 00% - 01% ... Gilmore
10% - 16% - 11% ... Undecided

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[MadBadger]

1. I do not trust this specific poll

It is the outlier for Obama. All other polls have him much higher in Iowa, NH, and SC

I checked it out on Realclearpolitics.com

[Czolgosz]

2. Research 2000 and Zogby and Real Clear Politics all also have Obama 3rd in Iowa, but there is plenty

of time for the candidates to shift back and forth for the lead. But I'm becoming doubtful that anyone from the 2nd tier is going rise up.