http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/03/neoclassical-wage-restraint-madness/It had to happen: neoclassical economists are now advising that the anticipated recession will be much milder if only workers would accept wage cuts.
When I saw this crisis was imminent in December 2005, one major factor that motivated me to go public with my analysis was the certainty that, when the crisis hit, neoclassical economists would either blame it on wages being too high (”the abolition of Work Choices caused the Depression!”), or would suggest that wages should be cut to reduce the imbalance between the supply of and demand for labour.
The crisis hit too early, and was far too global, for the abolition of Work Choices to “cop it sweet”. But yesterday, in an OpEd in the Sydney Morning Herald, Mark Davis reported that “Economic modellers” had concluded that 1% cut in the rate of growth of wages will boost employment growth by half a percent:
Economic modellers reckon cutting aggregate wages growth by a percentage point boosts employment growth by half a percentage point. Some think it boosts employment more. In the current environment that could save more than 50,000 jobs.
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Reducing real wages–and thus reducing the capacity of workers to purchase output–may boost profits in real terms by skewing the distribution of real income further in favour of capital. But it will undoubtedly impact on some capitalists badly–not makers of sports cars perhaps, but certainly those who run supermarket chains–and the aggregate effect is a toss-up.
But as Keynes argued in the General Theory, a cut in money wages is highly unlikely to affect real wages in the same direction. Since labour is an input to the production of literally everything, a general cut in money wages is likely to lead to a general fall in prices as well. Again, whether wages will fall more or less than prices becomes a toss-up.
Here Keynes made one of the few acknowledgements of what I regard as the real cause of the Great Depression–the unwinding of the debt bubble built up during the speculative mania of the 1920s (an issue that Irving Fisher was far better on with his Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions). Since Keynes accepted the neoclassical notion about real wages and the demand for labour, he agreed with his conservative opponents that real wages had to be cut to increase employment. But he said there were two ways to attempt achieve this–directly by cutting money wages, or indirectly by causing inflation.
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