NEED TO KNOW | Nate Silver on why the polls don't always add up

[Joanne98]

Run time: 06:03 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0p05FRR1zc   Posted on YouTube: October 18, 2010 By YouTube Member: PBS Views on YouTube: 25   Posted on DU: October 18, 2010 By DU Member: Joanne98 Views on DU: 997

 
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/... Interpreting polls can be tricky -- sometimes impossible. What do you make of contradicting polls and differences between likely voters and registered voters? The simplest answer: Ask Nate Silver, editor of the blog FiveThirtyEight.com. He speaks with Jon Meacham about this year's midterm elections. Need to Know airs Fridays on PBS. Watch full-length episodes of Need to Know at http://video.pbs.org/program/1458405365/

[Aramchek]

1. he admits the polling is flawed. yet still uses it.

why not just do some valid polling, Nate?

[dbmk]

2. Because he is not in it to get the perfect poll

Thats not what he does.

He is interested in getting the best possible statistical model to work on the polls.

People keep saying that his predictions were wrong on various occasions - but he never makes any. He communicates the percentages his models assign. I think he would be the first to admit that they are not perfect. But he would probably also contend the use of a limited amount of results to evaluate the model.

[greiner3]

3. I don't believe you quite understand;

Nate does not poll. He number crunches data that includes poll taking. He gives weight to polls based upon their historical trends. Say poll organization A has poll numbers that give republicans higher percentages than the majority of other polls in the same race. Once the election is held Nate will weigh poll organization A, giving them a good or bad rating depending if the republicans indeed did do better than the norm. This scenario fits poll organizations such as Rasmussen. They do not get a high rating because they are usually high for all republican candidates.
Now poll organization B is pretty close in most of its poll data to norm. This organization will receive a higher rating than A. Field Poll is the highest rated organization at the moment in Nate's blog. Here is the URL of that page;

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

It also gives a better explanation of the ratings there than I can here with my limited time.

[breadandwine]

4. Did I just hear Nate say the GOP could get 50 Senate seats?

And he's also saying Boxer could lose, she's at only a point ahead of Fiorina, who is blasting the state with TV ads every 2 minutes on leading channels or such.

And that is the Senate. As for the House, I am hearing even more discouraging news.

We are headed towards a nightmare. The GOP is casting a spell over the whole country with their rivers of cash and wind up Glenn Beck doll.


We are very close to fascism, because if the GOP takes over the Hill they will hold it for years because they are putting in place corporate mechanisms that will keep their power.