Worst-case scenario for the New American Century!!

[AGENDA21]

One could call this article a worst-case scenario for the new American century. Why worst case? Because of the hard lessons from history. The Romans did not consider the worst-case scenario when Hannibal crossed the Alps with his elephants and routed them; or when Hannibal encircled and annihilated the numerically superior Roman army at the Battle of Cannae.

The French did not consider the worst-case scenario at Dien Bien Phu and when they built the Maginot Line, and the French suffered disastrous defeats. The Americans did not consider the worst-case scenario at Pearl Harbor or on September 11, and the results were disastrous for the American people. Again, American planners did not consider the worst-case scenario in its latest war in Iraq, but instead operated on the "best-case scenario", such as considering the Iraq invasion a "cake walk" and that the Iraqi people would be parading in the streets, throwing flowers and welcoming American soldiers as "liberators", only to discover the opposite.

Scenario One: America launches 'preventive war' vs China

# Since 1978, China has averaged 9.4% annual GDP growth

# It had a five-fold increase in total output per capita from 1982 to 2002

# It had $61 billion in foreign direct investment in 2004 alone and foreign trade of $851 billion, the third-largest in the world

# The US trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in 2005

# China has $750 billion in foreign exchange reserves and is the second-biggest oil importer

# Last year it turned out 442,000 new engineers a year; with 48,000 graduates with master's degrees and 8,000 PhDs annually; compared to only 60,000 new engineers a year in the US.

# China for the first time (2004) surpassed America to export the most technology wares around the world. China enjoyed a $34 billion trade surplus with the US in advanced technology products in 2004 (The Economist, December 17, 2005). In 2005, the surplus increased to $36 billion

# It created 20,000 new manufacturing facilities a year

# It holds $252 billion in US Treasury Bonds (plus $48 billion held by Hong Kong)

# Among the five basic food, energy and industrial commodities –grain and meat, oil and coal and steel –consumption in China has eclipsed that of the US in all but oil.

# China has also gone ahead of the US in the consumption of TV sets, refrigerators and mobile phones

# In 1996, China had 7 million cell phones and the US had 44 million. Now China has more mobile phone users than the US has people.

# China has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close to 50%; U.S. has about $158 billion in personal savings and a savings rate of about 2% (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)

# Shanghai boasts 4,000 skyscrapers – double the number in New York City (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)

# Songbei, Harbin City in north China is building a city as big as New York City

# Goldman Sachs predicts that China will surpass the US economy by 2041.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HD20Ad03.html

[cali]

1. Ain't gonna happen.

Even bushco wouldn't wage pre-emptive war on China.

[Bonhomme Richard]

3. Actually, maybe they already are by...................

attempting to get control of mid-east oil.

[Minnesota Libra]

4. EXACTLY!!!! Why make a head on assault when you can go...............

....around your enemy and hope they don't notice until it is too late.

[politicaholic]

2. China will change to a democracy before then...

most likely there will be a lull resulting from the transition.

Remember, China still hinges it's economy on the American economy.

If they are convinced to revalue their currency by 20% this will slow their economy...this unfortunately will take diplomacy, of which the Bush administration is impotent at best.

[dysfunctional press]

5. shanghai may boast 4000 skyscrapers-

but the city is sinking under it's own weight, and sea-level rise from global warming will inundate it before many other coastal cities are as affected...it's almost like china's version of new orleans.

[Sinti]

6. We won't have to attack China, it will not be an issue

If we can get China to look the other way on Iran, all we need then do is bring Latin America in line, not that hard with a well timed coup and a few warning shots IMO.

Then, we (the aggressive West) and our closest friends (the Saudis and their lesser *kings* in the Mid East) will control 76 percent of the world's petroleum. The other 24 percent will be held by Russia. It is very unlikely that the Saudis, et al, will turn on us. They need us to help keep their riotous populations in line.

Seeing the board laid out as such, the Russians won't be giving any of their oil to China. China will be at a stand still, check mate. Their army can't move without fuel.

I'm certain there are many fine details that also fall into the equation, but generally, this is how you rule the world.