Regarding Roe, I need to know if you folks think I am too optimistic

[WilliamPitt]

I am for choice. Period. That's a good place to start.

But this is what I have been thinking.

I do not believe there is a single GOP official - from Mehlman on down - who wants to see Roe overturned. Not one.

Why?

Because when the GOP slaps the word "Abortion" into a direct mailer for fundraising, maybe with Hillary's picture in there somewhere, it is good for ten million dollars in donations.

Beyond the corporate connections, one of the main reasons the GOP has been able to outspend us is right there: they yell about the horrors of choice, and get flooded with donations from their single-issue base, who lift the couch cusions to find coins to give.

Overturning Roe would be like killing the golden goose for them. That 25% of the electorate, that utterly reliable 25% who eat through walls to come out and vote on their single issue, that evangelical 25% who give and give and give money to the GOP because of this issue, would check out. No more money. Hell, the motivation to come out and vote would be gone.

I see a MASSIVE collision coming between the GOP party officials and the GOP base. The base wants Roe overturned, but the party (I think) would rather light itself on fire than lose its revenue stream and reliable voting base. With Roe gone, the carrot has been taken off the stick.

I would be very surprised if the GOP allowed things to get that far. They need the money, and they need the issue, to keep their supramacy intact.

Am I too optimistic?

[Taverner]

1. On a national level,yes, but I disagree with you on the states level

State legislatures are made up of a lot of wackos - Fred Phelps types. And the Washington Repubs have already decided that it's the wacko's decision to make - its already out of their hands.

[WilliamPitt]

3. And that's the rub, see

These state cases will eventually make it to the SC, where there are five protect-Roe votes in place:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1110AP_Abortion_Outlook.html

So even the state laws won't be enacted. I think.

[Taverner]

13. But that's NOT the rub

The majority of supremes have already stated they are in favor of "states rights" on that issue.

Scalia, Thomas, Alito, Roberts, Kennedy is the swing vote - and I don't think he will let his troops down.

[librechik]

63. a number of states will follow SD & have referenda on the issue in Nov

similar to the gay marriage initiatives that brought out the pukkkes in 04--it could be bad

[lastliberalintexas]

27. There are NOT 5 pro-Roe votes dammit!

There are 5 mostly pro-Roe votes who would likely vote to overturn any complete and absolute ban on abortion- but that group includes one who will let a state place ANY restriction on abortion so long as it remains *theoretically* legal.

Our side takes way too much for granted when we assume that we'll have Kennedy. It's likely, but not the certainty that so many like to believe.

[havocmom]

42. That's the count TODAY

But some are not exactly spring chickens. What happens if bushco gets to appoint another reactionary to that court?

Folks, we HAVE to take the Senate.

[renaissanceguy]

49. Yes. It's all out of their hands now,

since the state fundies took over and acted to hastily. They may lose the next election, but it is NOT worth the lives of women who will get botched abortions in the future.

http://www.cafepress.com/liberalissues.46183076

[Lorien]

6. That's a good point

one I hadn't considered. The GOP has done an excellent job with scapegoating in the past. The tactic might continue to work for them on this issue.

[Lorien]

2. If you are, then so am I. That's always been my theory

without the abortion "carrot", most of their horses will stay at home come election day. They know this. Their party can't survive without an enemy to fight.

[Ladyhawk]

65. Don't you think they can come up with another wedge issue?

"Gay marriage" has worked well for them. They also feel strongly about prayer in schools. They will get worked up over whatever their pastors tell them to get worked up over. (I ended a sentence with a preposition. Sue me. ;) )

Yes, abortion is an especially emotional issue for fundies, but they are so easily manipulated I'm wondering if any contrived wedge issue will get them to the polls.

Thoughts?

[Lorien]

69. I've canvassed a lot in the past six years

and abortion, imho, is *THE* wedge issue for many otherwise Democratic voters. Even in a lot of African American communities-which traditionally are Dem communities-I've run into many people who told me that they would vote for * because they're anti-abortion. In 2004 I expected the gay marriage issue to come up-but no, it was almost always abortion.

[Ladyhawk]

71. Then they will milk it.

I don't think it matters whether or not Roe v. Wade is overturned. The "spectre" of abortion will be used, regardless. Factor in the voting machines and I think there is a high probability that the Republicans will try to outlaw abortion. There will be no backlash for doing so from the base and if the voting machines have taken over and are as rigged as I suspect, they won't have to worry about a backlash from anyone else, either.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

4. They don't need to overturn R v W. They'll just make it irrelevant.

They can have their cake and eat it too. By chipping away at it via "parental/spousal notification", and "partial birth abortion" legislation and the like, they can keep their fundie base fired up, while forcing Dem "moderates" to compromise away women's rights.

I think you're too optimistic.

[WilliamPitt]

9. That is definitely a good point.

I guess my point was about the outright elimination of Roe, but you are quite correct.

[VelmaD]

5. You are too optimistic...

especially about fundy Rethug office holders down at the State level. Some of them have really drunk the kool-aid on this topic and they really want abortion banned. I'm willing to put money down on exactly which state senator and rep in Texas will introduce the legislation to do it. :)

They have other wedge issues. Same sex marriage. Hell, re-outlawing homosexuality. There's always race-baiting. And of course once they get rid of abortion, birth control is next.

Putting Hillary's pic on a mailer will get donations for them whether they put abortion in there too or not.

I don't think we can afford to be optimistic on this subject. Well, since it's my body at stake at least I can't afford to be.

7. I happened to listen to a Christian radio station

the other day, and they were spending a few hours on the subject of banning abortion. They wanted people to visit South Dakota. They were also very upset that Pres Bush had made a statement saying he was for abortion in cases of rape, incest and life threat to the mother, and thought this would ruin their quest.

So if Bush does not want complete ban, then I think the republicans do not want to step over that line, and must have weighed the consequences, and found that the pro-life people can't really support the whole republican party.

I don't really know about the donation aspect.

[ET Awful]

8. That's been my view on the issue for quite a while.

I tend to agree with you.

[recoveringrepublican]

10. I think so, they will just switch it around

I use to believe what you just said, but there is an easy solution for them. Slap hillary's pictures with "she'll bring back the legal murdering of American babies". Abortion will always be in play, no matter if it's legal or not.

The only thing that that kind of makes me take your position again is that if Roe is overturned it would (I hope) light a fire under many complacent voters and non-voters, more so if they start going after birth control also. I know many women who vote repuke because their hubbies have money, but try to take their birth control away and they will shit, no doubt.

[lastliberalintexas]

32. The Return of Roe- The Sequel

You are absolutely correct- they don't need abortion to be legal for this issue to still be a galvanizing force for the fundy voters.

[LuckyTheDog]

38. They also will have the battle in the states

I can see it now: bus loads of fundy "freedom riders" on pilgrimages to blue states, seeking to "save the babies" of the "evil secularist" women in the "belly of the liberal beast."

[OnionPatch]

59. This is my thought too

They will always be able to use the fact that we are for choice and they are not to manipulate the fundies. If it's legal, they'll rally to make it illegal. If it's illegal, they'll rally the troops to keep it illegal and safe from the "liberal threat" of making it legal again. :eyes:

The only hope I have is that the public will see that they do intend to outlaw not only abortion, but all of the really effective birth control methods. I just don't believe the majority of the public is willing to go back to those days.

[Nederland]

11. Nope

You have it exactly correct.

Plus, when the SD abortion ban goes down in flames 9-0 (yes, it will be unanimously struck down by the Supreme Court) Republicans will realize that abortion is only a winner so long as they're losing.

[lastliberalintexas]

34. If that's a 9-0 decision, some fundy nutcase

will try to kill Scalia. Or any of the others who is supposed to be in their pockets on this issue.

Not that it matters, because Scalia has never and will never vote to uphold the legality of abortion.

[Nederland]

72. Perhaps that's a bit too optimistic

I admit. But I would think 7-2 is realistic (everyone but Scalia and Thomas).

[liberal N proud]

12. I have long thought that the repukes would never go after Roe, but

with the appointment of ScAlito and Roberts, the Abortion has been in the media so much recently, I am afraid we they have decided they don't need the abortion thing on the campaign trail any more.
They are now gambling that they will get mileage from coming through on the promise of overturning Roe V Wade.

[Ladyhawk]

66. You've also reminded me of DIEBOLD. That's another angle to

be considered.

And yes, even if abortion is made illegal, it will still be a wedge issue. They can whip up the base by simply saying Dems will make it legal again (which they would). Also, it's pretty easy to lead fundies and other non-thinkers. If abortion ceases to be as big an issue, they'll make more issues. It's pretty easy to do.

[LuckyTheDog]

14. Too optimistic, here is why

Simply overturning Roe will not end the abortion battle. It'll just move it to the individual states. There will be a lot of money to be raised for "fighting the battle" in states that keep abortion legal. I can see it now: bus loads of fundy "freedom riders" on pilgrimages to blue states, seeking to "save the babies" of the "evil secularist" women in the "belly of the liberal beast."

Beyond that, there will be work at the federal level for laws intended to chip away at state's rights on this issue -- national parental notification legislation, mandatory 48-hour waiting periods, etc. and a lot of that will end up in court.

The GOP could milk another 20 or 30 years out of the abortion issue once Roe is overturned. It would, in fact, energize their base because they'll be able to say that "total victory for the unborn" (or some such crap) is within their grasp.

[wryter2000]

15. Yes, you're too optimistic

I think overturning Roe will be their crowning achievement. They haven't achieved anything else. This is only the first part of their crusade to turn this into a Christofascist government (as opposed to real Christianity). Picture the fund raising letters -- WE STOPPED THE BABY KILLING, NOW HELP US STOP THE GAY AGENDA. WE STOPPED THE BABY KILLING, NOW HELP US KEEP DANGEROUS CONTRACEPTIVES AWAY FROM YOUR CHILDREN. WE STOPPED THE BABY KILLING, NOW HELP US RESTORE FAMILY VALUES.

I think they're dead set on ending choice. It remains to be seen how this will play out with more moderate Republicans, but there are fewer and fewer of them these days.

[Burning Water]

16. Yep, I think you're too optimistic.

If Roe is overturned the issue will NOT go away. First, they have to fight to get state laws passed. Then they have to keep fighting to prevent evil liberals from electing legislatures that will re-legalize abortion. This is the gift that will keep on giving for the Republicans.

[IsItJustMe]

17. I don't believe that the overturn of Roe would dampen the fund raising on

the right.

These people have a far bigger agenda than Roe. They want to have 'intelligent design' taught in our schools. They want prayer brought into our public schools. They want to control what we watch on TV. They want to control your life with their vision of what is right and wrong.

No, their agenda is huge. You can see it all around you now. You can see it with the kind of stupid ass issues that are now being brought up in congress.

The Roe issue is a small part of their plan for America.

[NanceGreggs]

18. I'm with you on this one ...

"Abortion" has been the rallying cry for the GOP for decades. In order to keep voters interested and donors' purses opened, they have to be able to trot out the issue, time and time again.

It's like the so-called War on Terror - it only works in their favour if it is truly an ENDLESS fight.

[Solly Mack]

19. Well, let's frame that argument this way

Abortion is banned

"Send money! Those evil liberals are trying to bring Roe V Wade back! They're trying to undo everything we've accomplished! We must stop them!"

So it's still a carrot on the stick and it will still bring in the money and still rile up the base.

I look at America and all that she has become in the last 5 years and cannot, for one second, doubt that she can get worse. It doesn't matter what the majority of Americans want- too many things have been shoved down out throats anyway. For the past 5 years, it hasn't much mattered what we were against - our government did it anyway. So banning abortion is very possible. Eroding the right of choice is already happening and has been happening for years. Keep chipping away at it and it's effectively banned - since it's almost impossible to obtain one.

This isn't the America you read about in books. This isn't the America we were taught to believe in...and Bush has almost 3 full years to go. In this America, all bets are off.

[Kerrytravelers]

20. I see your point.

But remember, they still have the "homosexual agenda', converting first the nation, then the globe to Christianity (specifically their type of fundy Christians), they have this perceived 'war on Terra" and all the military build up and flag waving that accompanies.

If they overturn Roe, I think it will get the undying gratitude of their 25% crazies and will only solidify their crusade for the above mentioned "issues." A victory on Roe would make them feel invincible and therefor, that crazy 25% would feel embolden to pursue their bigoted ideology.

Remember, the words "homosexual agenda" really gets them frothing at the mouth, too!

[shaniqua6392]

21. I completely agree!!

If the abortion issue is off the table, it would be Dems against Repukes strictly on other issues. The voters would be more focused on domestic issues affecting their every day lives. It would definitely level the playing field when it came to getting the evangelical votes. I think the GOP is not pleased at the actions of South Dakota this week. I think Planned Parenthood should start putting television ads in South Dakota right now letting women know that if they are forced to have a child, they can drop it off at any hospital, fire station, police station, etc. Let women know that if they are poor and have no insurance, they should just run into the hospital as soon as their water breaks and make the state pay for the birth. Make sure women know that they may be forced to give birth, but they can not be forced to keep the baby. Let South Dakota figure out what to do with all the unwanted children and let them know they are going to pay for it with their tax dollars. I would make an example out of that state by showing them that someone has to take care of all the unwanted children. If the baby is unwanted in the early stages of pregnancy, it will still be unwanted after it is born. Sorry for the rant. Yikes.

[johnnie]

22. It's their "Ace in the hole" so to speak

I agree with you there. I know many people who said they were voting for bush on the issue of abortion only. They figured he would abolish abortions all together :eyes:

I don't think Roe will ever be overturned either, I just wish they would stop messing around with it just to get donations.

[fleabert]

23. too optomistic...

I see it getting overturned, then the issue becomes creating legislation to go after women and dr's who continue to get/give abortions. 'Keep abortion illegal' and 'Death penalty for abortionists' become the mantra for the GOP. We won't stop fighting to keep/regain the right to choose, they won't stop fighting us. Just as abortion will continue whether or not it is illegal, the GOP won't stop using it as a tool to divide and distract.

[lapislzi]

24. Death by a thousand cuts

States will continue to ban it outright, while the Feds whittle away at it with laws like the ban on late-term abortions, parental and spousal notification rules. It's already damned difficult to obtain a legal abortion in most of the country. "Abortion on demand" is a canard. It doesn't exist.

All that is a roundabout way of saying, yes, I think you are being overly optimistic. They can keep making money off this for a long, long time while still making it more and more difficult for women to obtain needed services.

[The Revolution]

25. Maybe a little

The GOP leadership would probably prefer that Roe not be overturned, for the reasons you stated. But I don't know that they will be able to stop it from happening. I don't think they're completely unprepared for that event either. Their plan seems to be to hold onto those voters by turning their focus on gays, and positioning the Republican party as the party that will stand in the way of gay marriage, gay adoption, etc.

[BOSSHOG]

26. The party certainly doesn't want R v W overturned

Its like a massive forest fire and they are trying to put it out with a garden hose by design, as you say. I don't believe it will be overturned.

The MS legislature outlawed abortion but the penalty is a fine of "up to" 5 thousand dollars and a prison term of "up to" one year. The law was passed because the zealots equate abortion with murder. So you can murder in MS and get one year in prison? and the mother, who hired the "hit man," gets nothing. And there was some extreme rhetoric on the subject at the state capitol. I think our politicians have pulled a fast one on their conservative base.

I hope some convicted murderer challenges his sentence and uses the anti-abortion law as reason.

[Nikki Stone 1]

28. Getting rid of Roe would be the ONE achievement of this administration

Something tangible that they could go back to the base with. The war is a huge failure: looming civil war, all that oil unable to get out, and unstable base from which to attack Iran, etc. The domestic policy is beginning to be felt: jobs being sent overseas, never to return, the crushing of basic union protections, the fall of major Detroit automakers, the debacle over Social Security AND, the biggest, Katrina.

They got nothin', Will, which is why they need to overturn Roe ASAP.

[WilliamPitt]

35. Now THAT

is interesting thinking. I fear you may be spot-on.

Damn.

[Nikki Stone 1]

62. The Dubai deal has alienated a lot of the base

Abortion would bring them back.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

55. Excellent point

Plus the dollars will always be coming in to keep abortion illegal, so fundraising is moot.

[dogday]

29. Abortion is just one of many wedge issues they can and will

use and if it is made illegal, they will just crusade on another cause, I can think of several they could use right now.....

[jane_pippin]

30. If it was overturned why wouldn't they just campaign to keep it that way?

"Vote for this Democrat and abortions will be legal again! Don't let that happen! Give me money to fight to keep America Pro-Life!!"

These all-stars can and will market any steaming pile that wins over and keeps (hold on while I puke) "values voters."

Now, I do agree with you that if they do overturn it the country will flip out in protest (I hope), but these GOPers are the same people who claimed Bush won his 2nd term with a mandate, ok? They're freaky. I do hope you're right though--I don't want to see Roe or anything else that has to do with my contraceptive choices wiped out. Ever.

[johnnie]

31. Because they don't want it overturned

Where would they go to get abortions if they overturn it? :shrug:

[jane_pippin]

33. The same places they always did when it was illegal?

I don't know, I'm just thinking out loud really, in this and the other post. I just refuse to put anything past some of these people.

[Ladyhawk]

68. The rich can do whatever they want. It's always been that way.

Jet to Europe to get an abortion. No big.

[Hobarticus]

36. Two-thirds of America want choice...it'd be career suicide

Do you see any marquee-Repugs lauding this bill in South Dakota?

No. They're strangely quiet. They know it's a landmine.

[specimenfred1984]

37. They'll Overturn it, Then Brag for 40 Years About Kicking "lib" Ass

Look at Alito's and Robert's eyes, the current SCOTUS is the best hope the bigot repukes will ever have. It's not logical or financially competent, it's pure hatred. Hatred rules the repukes.

[Tari]

39. Too optimistic, yes. They have other issues to motivate their base when

they've outlawed abortion. Nationally, the money they get from those opposed to a woman's choice really doesn't amount to much in the gop world, does it? Maybe in individual states the money matters, but again, there are other issues with which to raise money.

With regard to getting the gop base out to vote, does it really matter? They own the voting machines. They don't need the carrot & stick.

I am not optimistic. Kinda obvious, huh?

I think the gop will leave this up to the states to do the dirty work & outlaw abortion. NARAL has information on each state which details its laws, policies & pending legislation on abortion.

http://www.prochoiceamerica.org/choice-action-center/in_your_state/who-decides/state-profiles/

Click on the state. I was surprised that Wisconsin got an "F".

[in_cog_ni_to]

40. I don't know what to think.

One part says they could REALLY rally support if they DO overturn it and the other side of me says they need the issue for '06 and '08 to keep the sheeple frothing at the mouth and may not want to go to the SC right now. Then again, if they do overturn it, will the sheeple just stay home since their "one issue" is no more? Who knows what goes through their minds? They're nuts.

Read this article. They're getting cold feet already.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=600035&mesg_id=606279

[bananas]

41. PHARMACISTS HAVE BEEN REFUSING TO GIVE OUT BIRTH CONTROL PILLS

Will, they have many more issues, they won't run out of issues because they banned abortion, they have school prayer, creationism, public hangings, etc.

[SheilaT]

43. Not optimistic. Naive.

I hear from a lot of Republican women (I live in Kansas) who say, "Well, they won't overturn Roe v. Wade." These are women who support choice, but vote for very conservative legislators. They don't get it. Nor, I think do you.

Look at what just happened in South Dakota. Unless the Supreme Court slaps that down decisively (and I hope I'm wrong, but I have no confidence they will) the door will be opened. If the SC says it really is a states' right issue, we will very quickly be back EXACTLY where we were before 1973, when a few states had decent access to abortions, but most did not. Women died trying to obtain abortions, or they were rendered sterile from back-alley butchers.

If you talk to older doctors, who had to clean up after those back alley butchers, they are absolutely opposed to a return to those days. But too many anti-choice people seem to think that if they just change the law, women will stop having abortions. Ha!

[geniph]

46. They don't actually want women to stop having abortions,

they just want the abortions to kill them. They want women punished for trying to maintain control over their own reproductive functions. They want women punished for exercising their sexuality.

Look, some of these nuts oppose abortions in cases where it's necessary to save the woman's life. In what parallel universe is THAT a pro-life stance? They both die!

[leftstreet]

44. Since Dems REFUSE to mobilize the pro-choice majority of the country

...that growing majority of people who think abortion, gay marriage, and school prayer have SHIT ALL to do with the price of gas, then yes you're too optimistic.

This is the same growing block of citizens who want national health care and a strong policy on illegal immigration. And since no one is speaking to their interests, they're the same growing block of citizens who STOP VOTING.

Both sides of the aisle blatantly purge the voter rolls each time they refuse to represent and mobilize the citizens. The Dems could kneecap the fundy nutjobs and their crazed telephone trees just by offering a national health plan.

[TheWraith]

45. You are absolutely correct.

Certainly a few of them really believe what they say, but the vast majority of Republican politicians just pay lip service. It's like fiscal conservatism or the size of government--they don't REALLY want those things, but they talk about them because it appeals to their voting base.

[lebkuchen]

47. The Roe card played now is a massive diversion in the face of desperation

The Bushy poll numbers are tumbling, ever more cities are passing resolutions to impeach Bush, so he panics by trying to galvanize his Bible-belter army w/Roe in SD and Christianity as the state religion in MO.

Like every other stunt he's pulled, he'll blow this one, too.

[0rganism]

48. You are WAY too optimistic on this one. Roe is just the beginning.

Overturning Roe is just the beginning, as it forms the basis of federal protection for access. The fundy base still has to support politicians who will uphold and enable as many restrictions on abortion as possible. The notion of even a complete state-level ban on abortions satisfying the fundies is flawed, since what they need is a total federal ban on the procedures to prevent "abortion tourism", and that will require a constant influx of enforcement budgeting to maintain. The "War on Drugs" didn't end with legislation; it continues on with enforcement and propaganda. The "War on Abortion" will be no different in that respect.

As others have pointed out, even if the abortion issue were completely settled by way of a complete federal oversight and warrantless jackbooting, the GOP can appeal to fundies on the basis of eroding other Church-State separations and restricting the rights of "undesirables".

[never cry wolf]

50. Here's another take

Actually Jerry Springer agrees with your reasoning but also adds that another reason the GOP doesn't want to overturn Roe is because then it becomes a state issue and every single repug state rep, state senator, governor, AG, all statewide offices will have to suddenly take a stand on abortion and since 2/3 of the voters approve choice the state GOP parties will get killed.

[BlooInBloo]

51. They'll just change the mailing to say "KEEP roe v wade dead". duh.

[Baconfoot]

53. Exactly. The issue won't magically disappear because of a SC decision.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

52. You're way too optimistic.

Last I checked, Planned Parenthood and NARAL bring in money, and abortion is legal. Granted, you're right, if abortion were overturned, PP and NARAL would bring in MORE money and anti-choice assholes less, but to say that'd kill their operations is a vast overstatement.

[JerseygirlCT]

54. You may be right. What concerns me though

is how many women have to die before we find out.

[goodboy]

56. all they'd have to do is change "abortion" to "gay marriage" after that,

they might come up with something to round up all non-Christian Talibani Americans in the spirit of the Inquisition or the Salem Witch Trials. Maybe they could resurrect the "un-American Activities Act" and put us all in concentration camps- (which are already built)

there are many more 1 issues out there will.

[bubba j]

74. where are the concentration camps you are talking about?

Is this new - I am new to DU so maybe I missed this.

bubba j

[MissB]

57. Yes.

They can break this issue down into a bunch of little pieces and still have something abortion-related to stick on a mailer to raise funds.

They do seem intent on picking it apart in pieces and chunks. I used to think it was safe to believe it was a golden goose - but I've been watching in horror as they reveal their intent.

William, they do want to pull choice away. It isn't really about saving babies. It is about control. If you look at it from the control point of view, then I think you'll see how the golden goose argument is false.

[huskerlaw]

58. Too optimistic

I agree with you that the national leadership doesn't want Roe overturned. However, if they let the states chip away at it, it actually HELPS them in the short-run. Think about it. Say you have a quasi-swing state such as Colorado. Lots of Dems, but also lots of freaky fundies. They're red enough to pass a law, say, requiring parental notification. That's not going to be enough for the Dobsonites. It becomes an even bigger political issue in that state than it is now.

The national leadership uses the now extremely hot button issue to get even more people to vote for the Repubs. All they'd have to tell them is that if they want abortion outlawed in the state, they have to elect state-level Republicans. And once you've got the Republicans showing up to vote en masse for the state-level race, they just happen to push the lever for the Republican congressional and presidental candidates as well.

And even better, the national level Repubs can turn to the moderates and say "hey, not our thing...it's up to the states."

Be afraid, be very afraid. If the national party didn't think it would benefit in some way by a renewed Roe fight (one they knew would chip away at it in the very least), they wouldn't have made such a big show about appointing two crazed anti-choicers to the Supreme Court.

[Walt Starr]

60. Hell, that's precisely why they went overboard in South Dakota!

They know damn well and good the REAL anti-choice agenda is going to turn off the vast number of voters, but that it's precisely what their base wants. so they push a bill that's way over the top, their new boys on teh court vote teh same old way, the decision comes out 5-4 and they get to tell their rabid religiously insane base, "just one more Justice and we'll have this sucker licked." After that, their religiously insane base turns out once again in record numbers for 2008.

[bananas]

61. "Gallup: More Than Half of Americans Reject Evolution, Back Bible"

Will, you are waaaay too optimistic.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2153480

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002154704

Gallup: More Than Half of Americans Reject Evolution, Back Bible

NEW YORK A Gallup report released today reveals that more than half of all Americans, rejecting evolution theory and scientific evidence, agree with the statement, "God created man exactly how Bible describes it."

Another 31% says that man did evolve, but "God guided." Only 12% back evolution and say "God had no part."

<snip>

[Sparkly]

64. I've thought that, BUT...

as long as it's a battle, it doesn't matter whose side is ahead. If they get a state challenge to Roe up to the USSC, that sets up the battleground for elections.

The odd thing is, a majority of voters do NOT want to see Roe overturned. As you say, it looks like it's about dollars, rather than votes -- but it probably includes both. They've chosen this as their wedge issue of the year for SOME reason or another.

It might be about claiming the "churchgoers came out" when exit polls don't match tabulations again.
It might be about tapping any "angry men" who haven't voted lately (and using them to explain "irregularities").
It might be about raising money, and using the money to propagate some other wedge.
It might just be about revamping the old "Ozzie and Harriet" fantasy, just when Americans are most stressed out (thanks to THEM) and the idea that "traditional values" and the "bridge to the 1950s" will save us all.

Time will tell. But I think they WANT this challenge, and they want it for political reasons.

[paulk]

67. I think you've got it right

the last thing the Republicans want is to overturn Roe v Wade.

I would even venture to say that this SD law is going to blow up in their faces - there has to be plenty of moderate Republicans and independents appalled by the harshness of this law - and they've got to be realizing that they've made a deal with the devil concerning their alliance with the religious "right". I think we're going to see a breakup of the Republican coalition, starting this November...

I'm basing some of this on what happened in CO in 2004 - people here got tired of the nutjobs pushing their social values nonsense while neglecting the real business of government. At some point people really do start paying attention.

[KoKo]

70. I could almost agree with you if I didn't see the "Macho Factor" in

the phrase that males used when I grew up: "I knocked her up."

I can see Dick Cheney, Chimp, DeLay, Abramoff, the McClellan boys and all the other Bush Bots...saying "I knocked her up." And, that is what many on the Repug side think and feel. It's "Macho" to "Knock Up" and not pay any consequences.. They think.....let the "Bitch go to jail for killing my kid" ...but oops...did they ever admit it WAS their kid or did they and their familes hire lawyers to prove the "Bitch" lied.

Here's my post on this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x609377

[cynatnite]

73. They've got a bible full of wedge issues...

It's not just abortion, but also gay marriage, ten commandments, prayer in school, and so on.

Abortion isn't the only money maker the GOP's got.

[Lars39]

75. Tenn. Senate Backs Anti-Abortion Step:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060309/ap_on_re_us/abortion_amendment

[gollygee]

76. Uhm gay rights?

they've got more issues to work with.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

77. I would have agreed, and used to agree, with this reasoning, until now.

Just the very fact of S.D., and now many other states cranking out these laws has dope slapped that thinking right out of me.

I mean, this modern Repub party is nothing if not centrally coordinated, and to think that multiple states could do this without it being considered desirable by the Politburo (i.e. shrubco) seems unthinkable.

On the other hand, the fact that it's state legislatures introduces the possibility that their Frankenstein Monster has broken loose from its shackles. That the "grassroots" fundies have deciden, on their own, that "Alito's in! That's it! I'm going over the top! Who's with me? Into the breach! Do you want to live forever?", while Rove, off stage, tries frantically to wave them off.