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From his most recent column....
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But 2004 was the first time since 1866 that Republicans increased their House majority in two consecutive elections. They are unlikely to achieve a third increase this year. So, suppose the breakwater is overwhelmed and Democrats win control of the House.
Who then will control the Democrats' crazies? Give those guys committee gavels, and they will be as manic about investigating the Bush administration as Republicans were about investigating the Clinton administration. (Do you remember Whitewater? Can you say anything about what was at issue?) Furthermore, there might be a noisy and not negligible cohort pushing for impeachment of President Bush for such high crimes and misdemeanors as the premise of the war with Iraq and the presence of Dick Cheney. Short-term memory loss being a bipartisan affliction, Democrats probably would not remember that the public was so annoyed by Republican attempts to impeach Bill Clinton for his glandular excesses, Democrats actually gained House seats in the first post-Monica election.
<snip> The difference, George, is that, unlike Republicans, we don't give a shit if someone gets a blowjob. But apparently you don't think lying to the American public about why we went to WAR is a high enough crime for impeachment. Oh, and you conveniently left out the asshole trashing our constitution by spying on Americans. And I couldn't agree with you more about Dick, his very existence offends me.
<snip> Presidential popularity, or lack there-of, tends to color an election year. Since 1962, when the president's job approval has been between 50 and 59 percent, the presidential party has lost an average of 12 seats in off-year elections; when his approval has been below 50 percent, the average loss has been 43 seats. President Bush's job approval is at a historic low for a sixth-year president not named Nixon, but this may not matter in November, and not just because of the breakwater. Voters can be very nimble at compartmentalizing their feelings about presidents and their feelings about lesser politicians. For example, in 1956, 1972 and 1984 Republican presidents won re-election landslides—yet Democrats gained one, two and two Senate seats, respectively.
Bush had a smaller electoral-vote margin than any re-elected president since 1916 (Woodrow Wilson), and every president re-elected since Wilson had a winning margin in the popular vote at least three times as large as Bush's in 2004 (2.5 percentage points). National politics seems frozen: All but three states (Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico) voted in 2004 the way they did in 2000. Nevertheless, 153 counties that had voted for Clinton in 1996 and Al Gore in 2000 voted in 2004 for Bush, who increased his margin in 24 of the 30 states he won in 2000 and reduced the Democratic margin of victory in 13 of the 20 states he lost in 2000. This trend will continue until, like every trend, it stops. <snip>
Well, with numbers approaching 30% and lower, we're poised to take the both houses. But we need a unified voice. I know it's controversial, but the Dem strategy of limiting primary wars may be what we need to do.
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