Algebra applied to accident imply Whittington was closer than reported.

[brainshrub]

The post below is a demonstration of the collective power of DU.

Yesterday I found the article How it happened?

After getting permission from Sellitman to cross-post it on my blog I decided to re-write it, clarify the main points and add new information. The result is no no longer a cross-post, but an entirely new essay that Sellitman inspired and co-wrote. (He asked to remain unsigned on my blog, but I'd like to give him proper credit here at DU.)

I'd also like to thank Berni_mccoy who pointed out the spread pattern of a 28 gauge shotgun that was posted on the DU frontpage yesterday.

Forensic algebra applied to Cheney's hunting accident imply that Whittington was much closer than reported.

I've got problems believing the official version of events from the White House over the details of this accident. I will demonstrate with police reports and what I'm going to call "Forensic Algebra" that Whittington was within 10 or 15 yards, at most, of the Vice President and possibly as close as 5 yards.

For starters, the first image (below on left) is taken directly from the Kenedy County Sheriff's Office, in whose jurisdiction the accident happened. The incident report shows the area where Whittington was shot. The quality of the image is poor, but it's good enough to make out that the area hit was fairly small - about the size of a dinner plate.

The reports say the pellets were all in the victim's face, shoulder, neck and chest, but not in his eyes. It seems like he was caught pretty squarely, and at close range if there was a demarcation like that. If he were at a longer range, there would likely be a rougher edge to the pattern.

The next image (below on right) was taken from the site shotgun-insight.com. This is the spread pattern of a 28g shotgun at 25 yards; the outer ring has a 30 inch diameter. Compare this to the area where Whittington was shot, which was an area of about 12 inches in diameter. Again, this implies that Whittington was closer than stated in the police report.

Finally, we can use the diameter of the spread pattern as evidenced on the Whittington's body and the number number of pellets that he was hit with and then work backwards with the standard pattern density for a 28 gauge shotgun at a longer range.<snip>

Entire article here: www.brainshrub.com/algebra-cheney-hunting-accident

Thanks to everyone at DU who helped with this article.

[Wickerman]

1. K&R - sellitman's post was very convincing and your's is

a nice re-write. :thumbsup:

[GumboYaYa]

2. How do you know that the shot pattern hit Whittington squarely?

He could have been hit by the lower quadrant of the shot pattern only.

[stop the bleeding]

3. based on the X-Rays he looks like he got it pretty good

http://patrickjfitzgerald.blogspot.com/2006/02/harry-before-and-after.html

[yodermon]

6. Are these xray's legit??!!

(ps love your avatar :toast: )

[stop the bleeding]

7. I was wondering the same thing - this is where I got it from

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=424050&mesg_id=428087

on edit: thank you :toast:


Also check out how Rawstory gives credit to Democratic Underground on this.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x426783

[Sammy Pepys]

14. The "shot" looks added on.

Doesn't look like it's actually part of the image.

[brainshrub]

32. I doubt it.

I could be wrong, but what kind of hospital would release this kind of personal information so quickly?

Also, it the police report do not report any hits below the chest.

Like I said, I could be wrong... but I'd be suspicious.

[GumboYaYa]

9. It really depends upon the size shot he was using.

Someone said there were 700 pellets in the rounds he was using, I don't know if that is right, but if it is, then 220 pellets is about a third of the pattern.

[Silverhair]

21. 28 Guage #7 1/2 shot has about 250 pellets - total. NT

[brainshrub]

25. Wikipedia disagrees with you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckshot#Birdshot

According to Wikipedia, the number is 350.

According to the research I did yesterday on this very question: Depending on the brand and other factors particulars, there are between 300 - 450 pellets in a round of birdshot.

[Silverhair]

That's for a 12Ga, Cheney used a 28 Ga. NT

[brainshrub]

29. Doh!

[GumboYaYa]

27. I looked at the major shotgun shell manufacturers and saw

a similar range. In some instances the 1 oz 7 1/2s have as low as 270 or so pellets. They appear to range from there to about 350 with some going over 350 into the 400 range for really small pellets. I would guess they were using 7 1/2s or 8s for quail so 300-350 is probably right. To really know the answer you have to know exactly what shells they were shooting.

Regardless, that is a pretty large number of pellets for those shells. The 28 gauge has a tight pattern, but I don't know if it is that tight.

Has anyone seen any targets shot at 30 yards with a 28 gauge? That will be the best way to answer this.

Cleary, 700 is high.

[BrightKnight]

30. 28 Gauge uses about 3/4 Ounce (21 grams) of shot

http://www.federalcartridge.com/ballistics/Ammo_Search.aspx

[GumboYaYa]

34. Again, it depends upon the specific shells being used.

For years Federal offered a 1 ounce magnum load in 28 gauge. It has been picked-up by Winchester in the form of a Super-X High Brass load with a muzzle velocity (MV) of 1205 fps. Shot sizes are 6, 7 1/2, and 8. The one ounce load allows efficient use of shot as large as #6, which number 225 to the ounce. Winchester offers no other 28 gauge hunting load.

Remington also offers exactly one hunting load in 28 gauge. This is a high brass Express Extra Long Range load with 3/4 ounce of #6 or #7 1/2 shot at a MV of 1295 fps. There are 262 #7 1/2 shot in a 3/4 ounce load, but only 169 #6 pellets.

Federal's single 28 gauge offering for hunters is a Premier high brass 3/4 ounce load at a MV of 1295 fps. Shot sizes 6, 7 1/2, and 8 are the choices. There are 307 #8 shot in a 3/4 ounce load.

The most common 28 gauge shell is the target load, available from all three of the big ammo companies at a MV of 1200-1230 fps. These are skeet or sporting clays loads containing 3/4 ounce of #8, 8 1/2, or 9 shot. Size 8 and 9 shot are offered by Remington and Winchester; Federal offers 8 1/2 and 9. The somewhat unusual #8 1/2 size shot has a pellet count of 373 in a 3/4 ounce load.

[brainshrub]

31. 700?

Where is that number comming from?

[GumboYaYa]

35. I saw that posted in anoter thread, before I actually

looked at pellet counts in 28 gauge shells. I am really not very familiar with a28 gauge. I always have hunted with a 12 gauge, except when I was a child and I used a .410 then. The really funny thing to me is that we always considered the 28 gauge a "lady" gun.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

23. If he was hit by the lower quadrant only, that implies to me that....

...for one of the pellets to hit his liver and one to hit his heart at 30 yards, the center of the shot pattern should have been just at the top of his head, or just over the top of his head.

In reality, it looks like Whittington's left shoulder and left side of his neck was very near the center of the pattern. You don't get hit by nearly 100 pellets by being at the edge of the pattern.

[Silverhair]

36. They did hit his heart and liver. They travel there in the blood stream.

Some of the pellets stopped in a blood vessel and were swept along by the blood.

[yodermon]

4. But!

typewriters from the 1970's couldn't create superscripts!!

[Peace Patriot]

5. This DU thread, "The Magic BB Theory," has a simple diagram of the

shoot. Does it gel with yours?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x191050

And I want to know how the Secret Service let someone in a V-P hunting party disappear from view and "sneak up" on the VP? Was the Secret Service drunk, too?

[myrna minx]

11. I know! I want an answer to that question!

How on earth did the SS allow anyone, let alone someone with a gun, sneak up on the VP? If indeed that is true, then those SS agents should be fired. Are they really going to stick with that story? It just doesn't add up.

[Virginian]

16. Secret Service or Executive Protective Service?

Is the VP under Secret Service protection or is he still under the protection of the Executive Protective Service?
Back in the days of President Ford, Rockafellar, the VP, was under the protection of the EPS. That was before there was a VP mansion at the old Naval Observatory.

[BrightKnight]

37. The "tall grass" story has holes.

We are in a very sever drought in Texas. To have "tall grass" you need heavy rain. We have not had any rain. Most of the state is under a no burn warning.

Also, there is no tall grass this time of year because the grass is dead. This is winter and we had our first freeze months ago. I can't think of any natural tall grass more than a foot or 2. Johnson grass only grows in the summer.

There are no tall crops in the winter because it tends to freeze.

It sounds like a tall tale to me.

I am not a lawyer but I believe that deliberately lying about that during an investigation would be obstruction of justice.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. Because the "sneaking up" part of the story is being used.....

...to attempt to blame Whittington for the shooting.

I'd bet that there was NO "sneaking up" involved in this story at all.

[ClintonTyree]

8. I could tell by the number of pellets in the guy.........

that the "official" story was pure bullshit. The guy had almost an entire load of buckshot in him and at 30 yards? :wtf: That's impossible, figuring the shot pattern and distance. I opined about this Monday, that the shot must have taken place at about 10 yards for him to have that much shot in him. The guy is truly lucky he's still alive, if he IS alive! :tinfoilhat: ;)

These people don't think "Liberals" know anything about guns and they could pull a fast one. I used to hunt in my youth, I do all my hunting at the supermarket now. I'm well aware of the shot patterns of birdshot.

[MyNameGoesHere]

24. This is the standard for pattern testing

How choke is determined. Choke is determined for all shotguns by the amount of shot it delivers within a 30" circle at 40yds.
(1) Cylinder bore-40%
(2) Improved cylinder-50%
(3) Modified-60%
(4) Full-70%
His Italian shotgun has a choke rating of 1-10 but it is similar.


I believe my whole body is less than 30 inches across, and we see from the diagram they drew a pretty tight pattern in a circular area. At 30 yards i am not sure if this is possible as the nice circular formation usually will start to break up at about 20 yards. Also if this was just the lower quadrant as some have suggested and at 30 yards we should have seen pellets from his head to his nuts. It just does not add up, but then again those guys hate science. Guess we know why now.

[gasperc]

10. there are also posts of paper targets getting hit from 30yards

and you can easily spray it with hundreds of pellets

the attempted cover up, lies and back tracking are keeping the story alive, giving it more legs and blowing up in the white houses "furious" face. Even though Rove was talking to Armstrong within 90 minutes of the event so what exactly they are pissed off about is unclear, it's their own transparent spin that they seem to be unable to control

[BrightKnight]

26. It would be very easy to do a proper pattern test.

Take a 28 Gauge shotgun out with a few pattern targets and a measuring tape.

He was probably using an improved cylinder or cylinder bore barrel with #8 or #9 shot. Number 9 shot is more common for quail. A cylinder bore barrel would be the best option for quail. This would be especially true for a 28 gage shotgun. I imagine that Dead-eye Dick could afford to use the appropriate barrel.


The head and chest area is a very tight pattern and the penetration was deep.

----------------

This is possibly reckless homicide. I hope that someone is doing a proper investigation. It sounds like "law enforcement" is whitewashing it. He was not interviewed until the next day and they said they were "treating it as an accident."

Anyone else with that many DUI convictions would be required to submit to blood alcohol test after something like that.

If officials user their positions to cover up a crime (for political reasons) does that make them accessories to the crime?

[gasperc]

33. the blowback is eating them alive

just like the blowback in Iraq is
and for jerks like Imus to say the national media is just pissed because they didn't get the story first and they want the guy to die, what bullshit

Armstrong was talking to Rove within 90minutes of the incident, as has been reported, if the white house is furious they have only themselves to blame. And they had Armstrong call the local paper on purpose so they COULD BURY THE STORY at least for a couple of days, from the national press. They knew they couldn't keep it secret but knowing Rove, he calculated that they could mitigate the story by letting a few days pass and then having Wittington pop up and say oh that little incident a few days/weeks ago, nothing really, see I'm fine, nothing here move on.

But, as in Iraq, serious mis-calculations have occurred. The story got out, there was no formal investigation, people now think Cheney was drunk and it doesn't even matter if it was true or not cause (although alot of people think he was), although it could have supported criminal negligence charges. On top of that, the guy is in ICU and has had a heart attack after being pronounced that he was alert and fine just after the white decided to take the strategy of joking about it. oh and the blaming the victim angle has fallen on deaf ears.

Like Iraq, a cluster fuck and a cluster fuck of their own making

[Sequoia]

12. And to think I though algebra was useless to learn in 8th grade.

[neoblues]

13. Didn't read the extended article...

And I also disbelieve the Cheney report of the incident...

That being said, there's something I'm not sure I'm comfortable with... I don't think you can just say "the typical spread of a 28ga shotgun"--well, maybe to some extent... But, the spread will depend upon the specific type of shot used, the load--even the brand of shells. It will depend upon the make and model of shotgun, the length of barrel and the existence and design of the choke. Some of them are even variable. There are often multiple chokes available for a given gun--and that's just from the maker as there may be many different after-market chokes that can be applied. For all I know, there may even have been a muzzle brake--though for a 28ga that'd be hardly necessary.

As stated, I didn't read the detailed report. It may be that these factors were taken into consideration... perhaps the accident report indicates the type of shells used, type of shotgun (beyond merely the gauge), presence or details of the choke.

Now, given all that being said... it's true, shotguns generally do have considerable spread at 90 feet, with an increasingly ragged outline. It's also true that it sounds like the injuries were in a fairly localized region of the victim's body. So, the story as given sounds like a load of crap, and that's without discussing the incoherent sequence of events reported (at least in the L.A. Times). After all, he was approaching from behind--how did Cheney turn all the way around to shoot--pretty dangerous behavior if true. Then, to have shot--basically horizontal--level with the ground so as to strike the man between five and six feet up from the ground--approximately level with the gun itself and shot does drop with gravity over time and distance (depending on muzzle velocity and wind resistance particular to the shot)--though, in this case it didn't drop much if at all (then again, not sure how much drop you'd expect depending on the distance--possibly insignificant). However, regardless of the potential drop, this would mean that the covey of birds flew from ahead of Cheney around or over him and then back to more or less human shoulder height for Cheny to have turned and fired horizontally... and even then--to miss seeing a fluorescent orange hunting vest with is much, much larger than any few quail (presumably being aimed at)--though perhaps not larger in area than a whole covey of birds in flight--but still--dull tan/grey/speckled birds would hardly be as obvious as a hunting vest (which is an intended effect of hunting vests). Hard to figure shooting something as large and visible as a man with vest (and probably hunting cap as well--though it may have been camo) by mistake when seeking to shoot so small a bird--even if there was a whole covey in flight. Then again, if one is completely reckless and hasn't the sense to know there are hunters and/or vehicles or whatnot in the direction from which you came and just blindly follows a group of birds on the wing all the way around behind you, and fires indiscriminantly (perhaps repeatedly..... )(was the gun single, double, pump, semi-auto?)(if it were semi-auto and he was blazing away following the flight, it could explain not seeing the hunter/vest combo--though not excuse it) one might imagine hitting the guy following from behind... but it would clearly be a case of negligence. Still and yet, mostly a bunch of birds knows where you are--if you're the ones who've startled them--and they don't generally fly towards you, much less behind you--though they might make a wide arc and end up behind you, maybe--and that would take a couple of seconds... Surprising the victim's first shot didn't send the second covey on it's way at the same time as his targets took off.

Close or far, it's still rather negligent in it's own right when you shoot a fellow hunter--unless they went ahead of you, unbeknownst to you, and where obscured by brush or simply jumped in front of your gun.

[onenote]

15. couple of questions

One, what is the source of the statement that 200 pellets were removed from Whittington? Is there a link?

Second, is there any reliable information as to how many pellets struck Whittington. I've seen stories indicating that it was "less than 150 to 200" which puts an outer limit on it, but doesn't provide that much information

Third, where are those supposed "x-rays" from?

It seems to me that all of the algebraic formulations in the world don't prove a thing without knowledge of some basic facts. The official report, for example, is merely a depiction of the general area of the wounds, not an indication of the concentration of the pellets or even the precise location of all of the pellets.

onenote

[brainshrub]

18. Couple of answers:

One, what is the source of the statement that 200 pellets were removed from Whittington? Is there a link?

The article never claims that 200 pellets were removed from Whittington. For the purposes of the math we've gone with 40, but most reports are claiming about 100 pellets.

Second, is there any reliable information as to how many pellets struck Whittington. I've seen stories indicating that it was "less than 150 to 200" which puts an outer limit on it, but doesn't provide that much information

Agreed, this is why the number 40 is used. The original article posted on Brainshrub.com goes into more detail and provides links.

Third, where are those supposed "x-rays" from?

I don't know, they are not part of the original article.

It seems to me that all of the algebraic formulations in the world don't prove a thing without knowledge of some basic facts. The official report, for example, is merely a depiction of the general area of the wounds, not an indication of the concentration of the pellets or even the precise location of all of the pellets.

Agreed. But between the police report, the spread pattern and the math there is enough data to put into doubt the claim that Whittington was 30 yards away.

Just sayin'.

[Silverhair]

17. Was Cheney shotgun choked? That changes the pattern. NT

[BrightKnight]

28. cylinder bore would be my guess

Nobody would would ever choose to hunt quail with any kind of choke. There would not be anything left of the bird if you could hit it.

Quail are very close and you want the pattern to open quickly.

Dead-eye Dick can afford to hunt with the proper equipment. He would not choose a barrel that everyone else in the party would laugh at.

[Silverhair]

19. If Whittingtion was stooping over, then he would be hit by a

chord of the circle, if the center of the circle closely missed him. That would then give an eliptical spread of the impacting part of the circle.

You really don't have enough imformation to do anything but speculate.

[Maine-ah]

20. kick

[Julius Civitatus]

38. Here you have more graphics about the "Magic BB Theory"

http://patriotboy.blogspot.com

[VOX]

39. Math is beautiful!

Thanks, brainshrub! :thumbsup:

[berni_mccoy]

40. Research from the Canadian RCMP Suggests 10 yards as well

Using penetration tests: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x438089

[Justice Is Comin]

41. Now Cheney

has him standing in a "gulley." :rofl:

[mzteris]

42. If it hit him in

the upper left neck/shoulder area - how did it hit his liver, too???