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[flamin lib]

Have you ever been in a shopping mall and seen the map with the little arrow that says, “You are here”? Well, in Iraq, the “here” is like this: there is a civil war going on between the Shea and Sunni. The government, such as it is, is heavily Shea. The only military force of any size in Iraq is the militia of Moqtada Al-Sader, a Shiite. The second large military force is the Kurdish Army in the North that refuses to participate in the pacification of southern Iraq. The President of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, has opened diplomatic relations with Iran, a Shea nation. Prime Minister Maliki has asked the United States to arm his military with helicopters and armored personnel carriers and just leave, which means his government will begin cleansing the Sunni. Saudi Arabia's Prince Bandar told Dick Cheney that if the US withdraws and leaves the Shiite government in power they would intercede on the Sunni side with weapons and direct military support to prevent an Iran/Iraq consolidation. In preparation for that event the Saudis plan to drive the price of oil down to strangle Iran’s economy. The price of sweet crude has fallen 20% in three months.

So, as it stands now if US troops remain they will be relegated to refereeing a civil war in hopes of preventing religious genocide which will make both sides hate them. That job will last indefinitely and in ten years we’ll have another black wall in Washington with 50,000 or more names on it. However, if the US withdraws the Saudis will become directly involved doing basically what the US is doing now which is protecting the Sunnis from the Shiites. If Iran tries to infiltrate Iraq, the Saudis will deal with them both economically and militarily. With an economy in shambles Iran won’t be able to buy nuclear technology.

So the choice seems clear: remain in Iraq and kill another 40,000 US troops or declare victory and bring them all home and let the Saudis take over.

Other than having the Saudis really, really mad at us for making a mess of their back yard I don’t see a lot of down side to just withdrawing. It’s not like we could do anything to make the Muslim radicals hate us any more than they do.

If things go like the did in Vietnam they’ll have their civil war, settle down and become a most favored trading partner with the US.