IS THE SINGLE SUPPLY LINE SUPPORTING OUR TROUPS IN TROUBLE? (3 articles)

[redacted]

1. A TOUGHER JOURNEY TO STOCK US TROOPS IN IRAQ

Increased violence is slowing supply lines on which five contractors were kidnapped in November. They appeared unharmed in a video released last week.

By Raymond Barrett | Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor

(important snips follow)

Due to such dangers, security is the issue on everybody's lips at the Rabha al-Sahara (Desert Springs) truck stop, within sight of the Abdaly crossing. "It's worse than before ... come under fire more frequently," says a Pakistani businessman who asked not to be identified. He's a logistics operator who leases trucks that are driven into Iraq.

The rise in violence has affected the flow of convoys traveling into the country. " eight movements in a day, but nowadays it's reduced to five. In one movement there are about 45 trucks," the businessman says.

<snip>

The supply line from Kuwait is absolutely crucial. You cannot supply the level that is required by air," says Paul Rodgers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University in West Yorkshire, England, who has written monthly security briefings on Iraq since 2003.

<snip>

Professor Rodgers says that a more substantial US combat presence in Iraq could cause insurgents to avoid direct confrontation and intensify attacks on supply lines.

"In the longer term, they may respond by attacking the supplies, rather than the troops themselves," he says.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0108/p06s01-woiq.html
_________________________________________________

2. December 18, 2006 Issue of The American Conservative

HOW TO LOSE AN ARMY
Plow deep into Iraq and dare Iran to strike.

by William S. Lind

<snip> . . .The Iranians have said that this time they have 140,000 American hostages, in the form of U.S. troops in Iraq. If either Israel or the U.S. attacks Iran, we could lose an army.

How could such a thing happen? The danger springs from the fact that almost all the supplies our forces in Iraq use, including vital fuel for their vehicles, comes over one supply line, which runs toward the south and the port in Kuwait. If that line were cut, our forces might not have enough fuel to get out of Iraq. American armies are enormously fuel-thirsty.

One might think that fuel would be abundant in Iraq, which is (or was) a major oil exporter. In fact, because of the ongoing chaos, Iraq is short of refined oil products. Our forces, if cut off from their own logistics, could not simply fuel up at local gas stations as German Gen. Heinz Guderian’s Panzer Corps did on its way to the English Channel in the 1940 campaign against France.

There are two ways, not mutually exclusive, that Iran could attempt to cut our supply line in Iraq in response to an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. . .

(Article continues to explore these ways.)

http://sf.indymedia.org/news/2007/01/1733713.php

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(Then there's this alarming press release I also found in the Google search at the bottom of this post. Because as a news release it's not subject to copyright, I've quoted from it at length.)

3. OSS CEO & HOWARD BLOOM REITERATE WARNING OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR AMBUSH AND EARNESTLY URGE CONGRESS TO CLEARLY WARN OFF ISRAEL AND THE WHITE HOUSE

Thursday January 4, 11:25 pm ET

WASHINGTON, Jan. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Robert David Steele (Vivas), CEO of OSS.Net, Inc., has today posted the following for Congressional consideration:

"America's very existence is in danger. Our nation is bankrupt, we are bogged down in a war we have not figured out how to win, and we are in danger of having our military obliterated by Iran. George Bush is fiddling-earnestly but incompetently-while America burns." These are the words of Howard Bloom, one of America's great scholars and a student of the Iranian situation in particular.

"I join Howard Bloom in reiterating this warning," said Steele. "We are on the record. If Congress ignores this very explicit warning, it too will be held accountable for dereliction of duty.

"I believe that Israel has been given a go-ahead to attack Iran; and that Congress must pass a declaration of non-support, including a promise to cut off all funds to Israel if they do attack Iran. I also believe, as Howard Bloom documented on 4 November (http://tinyurl.com/ybr337) that our carriers and amphibious troop transports are being lured into an Iranian nuclear ambush utilizing Sunburn missiles and Pakistani-provided nuclear warheads.

"I believe that Iran has a completely thought-out plan for cutting the tenuous supply line from Kuwait to our forces in Baghdad, as so brilliantly illustrated by Webster Tarpley (http://tinyurl.com/wyxbs).

"Congress should not be going home this week-end. We are in a crisis much worse than the Cuban missile crisis. Congress should immediately reconvene and demand "all stop" on the disastrous policies of interventionism, imperialism, and support for 45 dictators.

"Congress should also be mindful of the insolvency of the US as declared recently by the Comptroller General. In combination, these two crises suggest that we should immediately devise a 90-day program for liquidating the US presence in Iraq and funding a massive Berlin Airlift to introduce peace supplies and extricate our forces from the region, while also devising a regional peace process including a regional water authority. If Israel fails to join, we should cut off all funding to them.

"Free public intelligence is at http://meta2.com/PDB/.

"Copy to every Member, and to military list. Our flag officers should not obey illegal orders to attack Iran."

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070104/nyth173.html?.v=62

_____________________________________________

Much more at this Google search address for the search <"supply line" baghdad>:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d&q=%22supply+line%22+baghdad&btnG=Search+News

[AX10]

1. There is only a single line?

:wtf:?

[redacted]

4. Yep, it's a single 400-mile line, about the distance from San Francisco to Los Angeles

That's why I posted: not sure why we aren't talking about this.

[tanyev]

2. Oh, shite.

[gordianot]

3. This is a very well thought out post.

Republicans have been hoping for a Nuclear War for more than 50 years, guess they are about to get their wish.

[redacted]

6. Thanks gordianot; wish I had time to do more research.

Back in about 5 hours. Hopefully other DUers will contribute in the meantime.

[gordianot]

8. If Iran tried to disrupt supply lines U.S. would have to use tactical NBC weapons.

Nuclear and Chemical weapons will be the U.S choice. Although Iran may not have Nuclear weapons they probably have Biological and Chemical weapons.

Who knows Poppy may have supplied Nuclear weapons to Iran years ago dumped from a B-52? See link: http://www.counterpunch.org/cockburn07302005.html

[oblivious]

5. Balad Air Base is the world's busiest airport - 27,500 flights a month.

Permanent Bases in Iraq

An article in The Washington Post a few months ago titled, "Biggest Base in Iraq Has Small Town Feel," described Balad Air Base, which houses 20,000 American troops 40 miles north of Baghdad. At 27,500 flights a month, it is the busiest airport in the world, busier than London Heathrow or Chicago O'Hare. Of the 20,000 troops there, fewer than a thousand ever actually leave the base and have contact with Iraqis. The base has a Pizza Hut, Subway, Burger King and Popeyes. It also has a miniature golf course. Balad still needs a lot of work, however; of the $81 billion war appropriations bill recently passed by Congress, $231 million was for new construction at Balad.

Balad Air Base is one of the biggest American bases in Iraq. Camp Victory (the Baghdad International Airport and the surrounding area) and the Green Zone (the area around the Saddam's presidential palace and the U.S. Embassy) are among the others. All together, the United States has spent at least $4.5 billion on bases.
http://www.mennonitecc.ca/us/Washington/fiveyearslater/militarism/bases.html

Balad Airbase
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/balad-ab.htm

Biggest Base in Iraq Has Small-Town Feel
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/03/AR2006020302994.html

[necso]

7. Our supply "line"

and our need for lots of supplies (which will increase with more troops and fighting) are vulnerabilities. As is relying on contractors. (Although using a lot of contractors decreases the number of troops required -- making our involvement seem smaller than it really is. A more accurate count of the "deployed" should include all contractor personnel engaged in essential functions, like security, supply, food-services, etc.)

For example, if we attack militias in Baghdad, then these same militias (or allies) could retaliate by attacking our supply lines.

We needed to diversify and "harden" our supply arrangements long ago.

[Fovea]

15. This is a Walmart war

Fought not for victory, but to prove that we can now fight wars at everyday low prices by using 'the free market.'

This war shows the failure of Laissez faire capitalism in a way that few other things can. Here, the expenses come in both monitary loss, as well as American Boys and Girls.

[redacted]

18. That is absolutely true and there is an excellent blog that's devoted

almost entirely to showing how market failures in the kind of capitalism practiced in the United States are contributing to the potentially rapid extinction of life on this planet in a variety of ways, with thermonuclear war and pollution being two of the most prominent means, but not the only ones.

http://www.karmabanqueradio.com

[Fovea]

21. The only thing close to a free market

are the markets on contraband. Drugs, weapons, slaves, etc are self regulating, as long as your nominal reality includes termination with prejudice. Of course, kickbacks, bribes, and simple intimidation are lower cost strategies that are more widely used.

All other markets use corruption as extensively, but use influence rather than violence as a system of control. Because of that lack of an internal ulitmate sanction, they invariably co opt the government's resources. This goes back before the East India company, but the model is perfected there.

And not being contraband, they get additional benefit from government contracts that deepen the obligation to provide yet further military support.

Like Smedley Butler said...

[leftchick]

25. that is an excellent blog!

thanks for sharing. And thank you for this thread!

[Fridays Child]

9. k/r

[IndyOp]

10. Um...

I click on the http://tinyurl.com/ybr337 link and read what Howard Bloom wrote and I don't know what to think. Is Howard Bloom insane or is whole world, except Howard Bloom, wrong about Iran's nuclear capabilities?

Iran Sets Us Up For NUCLEAR AMBUSH
By Howard Bloom With Amara Angelica

<snip>

Iran was a major financier of the nuclear efforts of A.Q. Khan and the Pakistanis, who perfected what they called "The Islamic Bomb"--a miniaturized, warhead-ready device--in 1998. The working arrangement between the Iranians, Khan, and Pakistan? Iran purchased every kind of bomb-making equipment and know-how Khan was able to produce. Iran used what it bought to build its own nuclear bomb-making facilities. Which means there's compelling evidence that Iran has been building a nuclear warhead stockpile since at least 1998.

Iran also perfected nuclear-capable missiles with a 1,200 mile range. It refined its short and medium range missiles in combat by getting Hezbollah to provoke a war with Israel in Lebanon. In that war Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group, test fired 4,000 missiles on towns like Haifa and Tsfat. And at war’s end, Hezbollah claimed it had 20,000 of these missiles left. Was this typical Arab exaggeration, or a demonstration of the fact that Iran was operating a successful missile-mass-production industry?

In addition, Iran purchased Russian Sunburn missiles, missiles that zigzag over waves at 2.2 mach and are designed to carry a warhead with the power of six Hiroshima bombs. This missile is an aircraft carrier killer. But it's just one of many anti-ship missiles the Iranians have in their possession.

Iran’s missiles can nearly rip a medium-sized ship, a destroyer, apart if they are tipped with conventional weapons. But if they are tipped with nuclear warheads, they can melt America’s biggest vessels—our aircraft carriers and massive assault ships--down to the waterline.

Now imagine the next move. Iran tempts the US into a minor preemptive attack, one in which we are restrained by what Iran's founding father, the Ayatollah Khomeini, called with contempt "your 'humanitarian' scruples", scruples Khomeini informed us “are more childish than reasonable." This justifies Iran in counter-attack. That counterattack is achieved with nuclear missiles, missiles that wipe out the torso of our military, the 200,000 troops in the Middle East. Missiles that also wipe out a third of our navy.

<snip>

America ceases to be a superpower overnight. Europe, cowed and terrified, does a Neville Chamberlain and slowly becomes Eurabia. And the Iranian Islamic Revolution becomes a global force, a big and a frightening one.

===========

I knew Iran had Russian Silkworm missles, but didn't know about Sunburn missiles...

:wtf:

[redacted]

16. Indy, I've never heard of this Howard Bloom fellow until today,

and I don't know who he is. As I touched on above, his press release turned up in the Google search I was working on this morning about the supply line, and I didn't have time to check on this fellow's credibility or his claims.

I can tell you that some of what he says matches accounts provided by other, possibly more credible sources. What he says about the Sunburn missiles matches what a number of experts at the Global Security website have been saying since October, when concerns centered around a potential "October Surprise." Some of the assertions about Kahn match a BBC Panorama documentary that aired back in November, I think, and you can probably still watch it in broadband from the BBC News website.

Further questions about Bloom and his writings are most likely well beyond the scope of this thread, and certainly off the topic of this post. The information provided by the two other articles from the American Conservative and the Christian Science Monitor is highly credible. I also think that a similar concern over the supply line in two publications with such divergent editorial policies suggests that this isn't a Democratic issue or a Republican issue, but a survival issue. We've got 130,000 Americans who depend on that road, and if it's unavailable, what is their "Plan B?" I'm not aware of any way that jet fuel and gasoline can be "airlifted" into central Iraq, and without energy, how are these brave men and women supposed to defend themselves?

:shrug:

[IndyOp]

23. Thanks for your reply about Bloom - and I do not mean to suggest

that the supply line issue isn't credible because I have questions about Bloom. I just have questions about Bloom and did not want to give him any credibility by creating a separate thread. I have long been talking about the fact that Iran is many years from having a nuclear weapon because they haven't enriched nuclear material to nearly the level necessary to create one. I hadn't been thinking about the possibility that they may have nuclear weapons already because they have gotten them from Pakistan / A.Q. Khan. I don't think the solution to this possibility is military at all - we should get out of Iraq/Middle East fast.

[Az_lefty]

11. MSR Tampa...

when I was in Iraq in 03' we drove that line every day. If it gets cut off our troops around Baghdad and elsewhere are screwed.

[IndyOp]

12. And, um...

More Bloom - Two Years to Oblivion?

Osama bin Laden may soon have his hands on three Agosta 90B next-generation stealth submarines capable of carrying sixteen sea-to-land cruise missiles each. Those missiles can deliver atomic warheads. And Osama, I suspect, will have access to the forty nuclear warheads constructed by Pakistan. Washington and New York, two primary targets for Al Qaeda, are near bodies water from which these nuclear-tipped missiles can be launched. So are many other major American cities.

Many a Pakistani militant fundamentalist cell identifies itself as an Osama ally. One of the strongest among these Osama-loyalists is Pakistan's most popular leader, Fazlur Rahman Khalil, the man who told 60 Minutes that "God has ordered us to build nuclear weapons."

On the other hand, the base of Pakistan's military dictator, Pervez Musharraf, is a slender reed. According to Syed Adeeb, head of Information Times, a militant Pakistani press outlet based in the National Press Building in Washington DC, "an Urdu- language letter written by Pakistan Army officers on a Pakistan Army letterhead and sent to many members of the Pakistan Parliament" calls, "'Pervez Musharraf and his clique…a band of thieves and looters…imposed on this nation'" by the United States.

Adeeb himself calls Musharref, "a self-appointed 'President,' military dictator, army tyrant, human rights abuser, traitor and highly paid mercenary of war criminal George W. Bush".

Musharref was nearly assassinated the same day Saddam Hussein was captured in December 2003. Yet only he stands between Osama and the Islamic submarines. Only Musharraf stands between Osama and the cruise missiles Pakistan's subs can carry. And only Musharraf stands between Osama and the 40 or more nuclear warheads Pakistan has built since it exploded the first Islamic atomic bomb.

Which means that only Pervez Musharraf stands between Osama and his dream endgame--nuke a few key cities in the United States to blind and devastate the Great Satan. Then watch while France, Germany, Italy, and England capitulate. Capitulate to what? To Osama's dream, his passion, his vision of truth and freedom--to a global Islamic caliphate.

[Morgana LaFey]

13. OMG. That last article gave me an anxiety attack

Mainly because HE'S RIGHT!!

Now, who IS he? What is OSS??

[Jeffersons Ghost]

14. K&R...

Without furnishing logistical support usually provided by ANY in-country
defense contractor, does anyone know what Halliburton makes?

besides obscene profits???

[bemildred]

17. Wait until these morons attack al Sadr again. nt

[sanskritwarrior]

19. There is more than one supply line.

We have more than one supply line into country...... I don't care what this article says there are 4 major and 3 minor supply lines into and out of Iraq. Here they are.......

1. MSR Tampa that one is from the articles. It starts at North star which is the base at the Kuwaiti/Iraqi border, it runs from there all the way to Baghdad. This is the one through Mehdi Army territory, yet it can also be diverted out to Western Desert where no one lives.

2. Anbar Express. This one starts at the Jordanian Border and goes through Rutbah in Western Iraq and then into Ramadi, Fallujah and the Marine FOB's in the upper Euphrates valley.

3. Balad Air Base; This is an air bridge but it is an effective supply line.

4. The zakho Gate: This is the supply line from Turkey that feeds most of our troops in Mosul, Tikrit, Tal Afar and Sinjar

Minor Supply Lines:

1. FOB Speicher or al Sahra air base whichever name you prefer, this is the HQ N of Tikrit that serves Tikrit and Bayji

2. FOB Warrior This is right next to Kirkuk and supports the mission in Kirkuk, Tuz Khurmatu and Hawijah as well as the few forces in Kurdistan proper

3. BIAP is still used for a lot of people in and out of Iraq as well as some supplies for Baghdad.

The point is the Mehdi Army can harass our forces in a confrontation, but are unable to interdict our supply lines. They had modest success in 2004 because they surprised us. If an escalation with the Mehdi Army occurs, AH-64 apaches, F-16's and a-10's would pretty much be parked on MSR Michigan and we could shift priority of supply to the other supply lines on the other MSR's. Or we could shift our resupply to the Western Desert like we did in 2003, Fuelers, and other Trucks can handle the dirt packed roads, it's a pain in the ass but is doable. I can speak from experience of MSR Tampa and the Zakho Gate, you could hyrt us on MSR Tampa but the the Zakho Gate is not easily invested. The Turks watch the Kurds and the Kurds watch the Turks, everyone is on their best behavior up there.

[redacted]

20. Welcome to DU

Hello sanskritwarrior, thanks for posting. When were you there and in what capacity did you serve? It sounds like you have first-hand experience with these supply routes; which ones and for how long?

[sanskritwarrior]

27. 2003-2004

1st BDE 1st ID Ramadi, Anbar Province

2005

3rd Bde, 3rd ID various places Diyala province

[pa28]

22. I'll rest easier.

That was a chilling scenario but I think you've de-bunked it.

[IndyOp]

24. Agreed - still it seems that one of the lines under increasing attack is very, very important

Even the articles quoted in the OP indicate there is more than one supply line - but that the one being described is critically important.

Increased violence is slowing supply lines on which five contractors were kidnapped in November.

The supply line from Kuwait is absolutely crucial. You cannot supply the level that is required by air," says Paul Rodgers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University in West Yorkshire, England, who has written monthly security briefings on Iraq since 2003.
--------------------------------------

HOW TO LOSE AN ARMY

How could such a thing happen? The danger springs from the fact that ALMOST all the supplies our forces in Iraq use, including vital fuel for their vehicles, comes over one supply line, which runs toward the south and the port in Kuwait. If that line were cut, our forces might not have enough fuel to get out of Iraq. American armies are enormously fuel-thirsty.

[sanskritwarrior]

26. Again I have read

the article and there is no way almost all supplies come over MSR Michigan.

MSR Michigan supplies our forces in Baghdad and south of Baghdad. That is about 40% of our forces in Iraq. The anbar express supplies Anbar province, 20% of our forces, The Zakho Gate supplies Northern Iraq 30% of our forces. the remaining 10% get supplied by the Balad, Speicher and Warrior airfields.....When I was at Camp Caldwell near the Iranian border in 2005, our food, water and fuel came from Turkey and we were much closer to Baghdad than the turkish border........MSR Michigan is important, but it aint the end all be all this guy is trying to make it........

We are not going to lose an army in Iraq. This article is in fantasyland, lets say worst case scenario we lose MSR Michigan and we are looking at strategic defeat. We unass the FOB's and make for Turkey using our airpower to blast the MSR's as we flee north. Turkey would allow us entry in conjunction with NATO commitments.......Even that is fantasy. I don't think many people understand how the military operates. You can cut off supply lines in the mountains, you can cut of supply lines if the enemy has armored forces, you CANNOT cut off supply lines if you are a light infantry insurgency. Please forgive me if I sound irritated, most message boards have articles like this which are not grounded in any kind of military reality. Can the Mehdi army hurt our supply lines?? Most definitely. Can they close them off? No, in fact the military would welcome them coming out of hiding and guarding intersections, roads, etc.......