It just hit me: Iraq = Viet Nam.... Iran = Cambodia

[phantom power]

My new prediction is based on this little bit from Glenn Greenwald:

More importantly, a war with Iran can happen in many ways other than by some grand announcement by the President that he wants to start a war, followed by a debate in Congress as to whether such a war should be authorized. That is the least likely way for such a confrontation to occur.

We have 140,000 troops (soon to be 20,000 more) sitting in a country that borders Iran and where Iran is operating, with an announced military build-up in the Persian Gulf imminent, increased war rhetoric from all sides, the beginning of actual skirmishes already, a reduction (if not elimination) on the existing constraints with which our military operates in Iraq, and a declaration by the President that Iran is our enemy in the current war.

That makes unplanned -- or seemingly unplanned -- confrontations highly likely, whether through miscalculation, miscommunication, misperception, or affirmative deceit. Whatever else is true, given the stakes involved -- the unimaginable, impossible-to-overstate stakes -- and the fact that we are unquestionably moving forward on this confrontational path quite deliberately, this issue is receiving nowhere near the attention in our political discussions and media reports that it so urgently demands.

http://glenngreenwald.blogspot.com/2007/01/presidents-intentions-towards-iran.html

[global1]

1. How Many Troops Do We Have Sitting In The Gulf?.....

Are they included in the 140,000 that are said to be in Iraq?

[madokie]

4. I would bet not

[phantom power]

5. If there were more than 140K, there's no guarantee we'd know about it.

I think a very likely scenario is Iraqi troops re-tasked to take on missions into Iran. Easy to do in complete secrecy. Maybe some rumors would leak out. Easy to deny. Eventually the truth would come out. As with Cambodia. But by then, nobody will really care.

Of course, Greenwald's other observation, that Bush is fucking nuts, is also correct. So I don't rule out a public declaration of war, without any secrecy whatsoever.

[LynneSin]

2. Syria = Laos

:cry:

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

9. Need I say more?

[shain from kane]

3. Yesterday, I compared Somalia to Cambodia. It's all in the syllables.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

6. No, Somalia and Iraq do not share a porous border

area like Syria/Iraq/Iran do.

Somalia is more like the Philippines was during Viet Nam... a backwater of occasional violence.

Iran is definitely the Cambodia and Syria is Laos.

[shain from kane]

11. Al Qaida using Somalia as sanctuary. Proximity of geography is not the same, but

neither are means of travel and communication.

[CrazyOrangeCat]

7. you're right . . .

but Cambodia was a virtually harmless neutral state.

and, as we all know, Iran is heavily armed and dangerous.

[KharmaTrain]

8. This Is More Like LBJ's Escalations Prior To '68

In '65 Johnson landed the first Marines in Ia Drang and within months had 100,000 boots on the ground. As things got worse, Johnsons answer was to send in more troops until we had 500,000 on the ground when Tet happened. In addition he increased bombing of North Vietnam...causing a certain Saint McCain to start his extended stay at the Hanoi Hilton.

[Monkeyman]

10. Yep that History looks like it will be repeated

Those of us who served in Vietnam see the same dam shit happening again. Take to the Streets my Brothers and Sisters let them know we want no more.

[Little Wing]

12. Way off

Iraq = France, Iran = Russia

[phantom power]

13. Heh. Could be :-)