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Wesley Clark: Bush's 'surge' will backfire

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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 03:18 PM
Original message
Wesley Clark: Bush's 'surge' will backfire
Beats me why this is in a British paper. Maybe Clark thinks Blair or the Parliament might have some influence on Bush, or could have some in conjunction with our new Congress. Maybe he's just trying to make sure Great Britain and our other European friends know that Bush is doing his own thing, not what the American people want. Maybe he just couldn't get a major US paper to publish it.

Emphasis is mine, by the way. It's hard to know what to snip to meet DU's fair use rules.

Wesley Clark: Bush's 'surge' will backfire


The rise in troop numbers could reduce the urgency for political effort
Published: 07 January 2007

The odds are that President George Bush will announce a "surge" of up to 20,000 additional US troops in Iraq. But why? Will this deliver a "win"? The answers: a combination of misunderstanding and desperation; and, probably not.

The recent congressional elections - which turned over control of both houses to the Democrats - were largely a referendum on President Bush, and much of the vote reflected public dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. Most Americans see the US effort as failing, and believe that some different course of action must be taken. Most favour withdrawing forces soon, if not immediately. The report of the Iraq Study Group is widely seen as a formal confirmation of US failure in Iraq.

(snip)

What the surge would do, however, is put more American troops in harm's way, further undercut US forces' morale, and risk further alienation of elements of the Iraqi populace. American casualties would probably rise, at least temporarily, as more troops are on the streets; we saw this when the brigade from Alaska was extended and sent into Baghdad last summer. And even if the increased troop presence initially intimidates or frustrates the contending militias, it won't be long before they find ways to work around the obstacles to movement and neighbourhood searches, if they are still intent on pursuing the conflict. All of this is not much of an endorsement for a troop surge that will impose real pain on the already overstretched US forces.

(snip)

The truth is that, however brutal the fighting in Iraq for our troops, the underlying problems are political. Vicious ethnic cleansing is under way right under the noses of our troops, as various factions fight for power and survival. In this environment security is unlikely to come from smothering the struggle with a blanket of forces - it cannot be smothered easily, for additional US efforts can stir additional resistance - but rather from more effective action to resolve the struggle at the political level. And the real danger of the troop surge is that it undercuts the urgency for the political effort. A new US ambassador might help, but, more fundamentally, the US and its allies need to proceed from a different approach within the region. The neocons' vision has failed.

(snip)

America should take the lead with direct diplomacy to resolve the interrelated problems of Iran's push for regional hegemony, Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Isolating adversaries hasn't worked. The region must gain a new vision, and that must be led diplomatically by the most powerful force in the region, the United States.

Without such fundamental change in Washington's approach, there is little hope that the troops surge, Iraqi promises and accompanying rhetoric will amount to anything other than "stay the course more". That wastes lives and time, perpetuates the appeal of the terrorists, and simply brings us closer to the showdown with Iran. And that will be a tragedy for not just Iraq but our friends in the region as well.

Retired General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Commander of Nato, is a senior fellow at UCLA's Burkle Center for International Relations

http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article2132496.ece
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The_Casual_Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 03:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. Just another of the stupid bush plans that have to be played out
in order to prove that he is full of shit. Too bad thousands more need to die in order to prove him wrong again.
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
2. Two reasons this is in a British paper
The Independent is a great paper--it covers more real news about America than many American papers do. That makes sense, of course. The people on the ground need to know more about where the elephant is stomping than the people riding on the elephant's back. They're also anti-war, so they were going to be more receptive to an article inquiry from Clark's publicists than the American papers that are generally still in lapdog mode.

But also, Clark has hitched his wagon to Fox News. That's a pretty smart strategy for pulling key crossover support, should he get the nomination--he's been the one in the neocons' faces pointing out their stupidity for the last several months and on Fox he has the field to himself. The downside is that non-Murdoch media outlets are going to be a little more reluctant to give column space to Clark, which they might see as basically giving free advertising to Fox's consultant.

It was a risky calculation on Clark's part, but probably the best move back in 2005 when Hillary Clinton was sucking all the oxygen out of the tent. I still say Clinton has a glass jaw--won't last on the campaign trail past Michigan. This race will come down to John Edwards and one other person who isn't her. If Clark is that other choice, I think he'll win. I don't know if anyone else will be as easy for Clark to beat.
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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. You may well be right about the first
Edited on Sun Jan-07-07 04:37 PM by Jai4WKC08
But Clark has had op/eds run in the NYT, WaPo, USA Today, WSJ (those I can remember off the top of my head... oh yeah, there was that Atlantic Monthly collection too) since he took the Fox gig. Those are all non-Murdoch papers.

But it does seems to me that this op/ed is far more confrontational than I remember the others to be. I mean, he all but calls Bush an idiot. What other word is there for someone who just seems to want to throw more men and women into the meat grinder? I know Clark is really pissed about this (and about what Bush may do in Iran). When McCain first proposed sending more troops, Clark said he was just blowing smoke, that he knew the military couldn't support it. Now it looks like Bush is gonna really do it, regardless of how much it will cripple (more than he has already) the Army, Marine Corps and reserve components? It's just plain crazy.
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rebel with a cause Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. also, I'll bet
That Clark is inwardly, if not outwardly, raging about bush replacing the top two generals in Iraq who disagree with the surge, and replacing with those who are basically going to yes bush's every move. I least I've heard that this is bush's idea in the change. If I am wrong just tell me so, and don't flame me. ;-)

:hide:
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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. No flame from me...
Since I don't know the personalities involved, I can't say how much more or less "yes-men" the new guys will be. Abizaid and Casey never really struck me as terribly outspoken or resistant to White House pressure. Otoh, they have both always seemed to be at least truthful when called before Congress to testify. That could be especially dangerous for Bush with the new Congress.

Plus, from what I understand, the military in Iraq was extremely unhappy about having to turn over Saddam so abruptly, and were basically forced to capitulate to the State Dept (who resisted for a while, but got White House permission to give in to al Maliki. I don't know if that has anything to do with anything, but it's just more tension and more of the same ol' "ignore the generals" crap we've seen so much of.

Finally, I don't think any of us who are Army vets (not to mention active duty) are feeling real good about the new guy in charge of CENTCOM being an admiral. But especially Clark, who has been convinced for some time that Bush intends to bomb Iran. Not much reason to put the Navy in to control the ground war in Iraq, but aircraft carrier and cruise missile strikes are right up his alley.
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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. I think I may have confirmed where I said in the OP...
"Maybe Clark thinks Blair or the Parliament might have some influence on Bush..."

Still not sure about that of course, but I happened to run across a blog by one of the Labour MPs, who is pushing Gordon Brown to use this issue to prove his independence from Bush war policy:
http://www.john4leader.org.uk/2007/01/test-of-browns-independence-from-bush.html
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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-09-07 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. On the other hand, it turns out
Clark has a similar op/ed in yesterday's WaPo.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/07/AR2007010700980.html

Why the Monday edition, you may ask? Well, don'cha know, John McCain's op/ed ran on Sunday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/05/AR2007010501810.html

Couldn't be giving Clark the same circulation as the anointed one, could they?.
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. I have this image of the bush surge in my head
remember back to Elmer Fudd and Bugs Bunny toons....

the ones where Elmer shoves a shotgun in Bugs Bunny's face. Bugs puts his fingers in the barrel and Elmer fires

big explosion, smoke clears

shotgun barrel is peeled back like a banana peel, and Elmer has shotgun burn powder stuff all over his face...

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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 05:14 PM
Response to Original message
5. What does Clark know?
I mean, how can his knowledge compare to that of the all-powerful Decider-in-Chief?
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. I think you've nailed it - in so far as what Bush thinks.
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
6. K & R. Thanks for posting.
Edited on Sun Jan-07-07 05:23 PM by Clarkie1
Clark's gravitas gives added weight to arguments against "stay the course more."
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
10. The military has already said last week
That there really are not more than 9,000 warm bodies that they can even find to put over there.

Some surge. No ammo dump, no warm bodies, and even if they manage the first two, Congress might only fund it over somebody's dead body.
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Donna Zen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-07-07 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
12. The argument is ours
One of the things Wes Clark stressed during the run-up to this fall's elections was our need to get our arguments and rebuttals down. When I caught up with him in NH, he was very clear about that. This article has it all. More than a simple negation of bush's obviously flawed policy, Wes provides reason after reason why this will not work. He even answers the rebuttals. He is such a fine teacher.

Oh, and I love "...staying the course more."
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