Kos: "If Obama runs in '08--he wins"

[WI_DEM]

I'm just the messenger. I think it's too early to say, but here is Kos's take on a Barack Obama run in 2008:

"...It's hard to see how Barack Obama loses the nomination barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes...Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win (getting no boost out of it), the race for second place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama...South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how),and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote can overcome the hurdles...What's more, Obama would be tough to beat in the general. He would very well be the favorite in that race, even against McCain, and would probably be a net positive for Democrats running down the ballot..."

"There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise--an Al Gore entrance into the race, other than that, I don't see a way anybody stops him."

Interesting.

www.dailykos.com

[AlinPA]

1. For sure Obama would carry no southern states, esp. TN.

[warrens]

You forget the black vote and discouraged Repukes

He could take several southern states. He has a lot of appeal to reasonable Repukes. I saw it work here in Illinois. He got about a third of the GOP vote in 04. The guy can get anyone on his side other than a stone racist. Most people don't even see him as black, more a force of nature.

[AlinPA]

35. To me, Southern GOP'ers are totally different than those from IL.

[peacebaby3]

6. I'm in a "deep south" state and lots of people love him here. I'm amazed

at the people who consider themselves moderate or conservative (not neocon, fundie types...they will never vote for anyone with a D) that really like him. Many of those people would normally vote "Republic", but they really like Obama. I think he could win some states in the South. The South also has the largest African American population in the country and a candidate who has some African & American heritage would probably get them registered and out to the polls in greater numbers.

[AlinPA]

34. That is great to hear. I am thinking about what happened to Ford in TN.

[Odin2005]

44. But, but, I thought Southerers were all racist scum?

:sarcasm:

[jefferson_dem]

57. Thank you. I am also in the deep south and Obama's not to be underestimated.

I can't tell you how many "i really like him" comments i've heard from reasonable repukes (there are not many, i know) i "travel" with from time to time. All 50 are in play ... if he gets in.

[WI_DEM]

9. I'm not so sure about that--the AA vote would be stronger than ever

and probably record turnout (like Catholic vote was for JFK in '60). Also Obama doesn't scare some white people like certain black activists like Rev. Al Sharpten and if he can get 99% of the AA vote in record turnout in some southern states and a third or more of the White vote he can win a few. By the way, it seems like our white nominees lately haven't been winning any southern states either.

[AlinPA]

36. True they have not been winning in the south. Those evangelicals and fundies

in the south are pure GOP and see Dems and northerners as evil. A black man would stand little chance there. Maybe in a few districts, but I seriously doubt statewide.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

46. That's not "for sure"

It would require a massive GOTV movement to bring in the votes, but if it were funded and worked correctly, there are some he could possibly carry.

[benny05]

2. Well, Kos has supported others that didn't win either

But it is interesting.

I'm still waiting for a reply from Obama I sent him as a constituent, and his staff haven't responded. I've sent him a series of e-mails, and only once has he written back. I think it's because I don't live in Chicago (I live downstate), and he responds mainly to Chicagoans. Dick Durbin is always good about answering back within a couple of weeks.

I noticed another Illinois resident or two down this thread share some of my thoughts.

[Wesin04]

3. Forget Virginia, too

Though we're breaking through with some strong Blue wins the last couple of years, that's been done with lots of crossover voting. Virginia is not going to go for Obama, not even the Dems. Agree-he won't win much of anything in the South. Let's hope the Democrats are smarter than this.

[WI_DEM]

11. how did Doug Wilder become Governor of VA in '89 when VA

was more red than it is today?

[jefferson_dem]

58. It's common knowledge that VA is turning bluer by the day.

The good folks over at raisingkaine.com are onto something.

[warrens]

4. Gore and Obama appear to be the strongest candidates

Either would make me happy.

[WillyT]

5. WillyT Says: Gore\Obama 2008 !!!

Unbeatable, says I!

Course it could be the cold medicine.

:kick::bounce::kick:

[dogindia]

47. YES. YES.

[high density]

7. Yeah, that's right

Because all of those people who voted for Bush in those red states in 2004 are now very eager to go vote for a black Democrat.

Come back to reality please. :eyes:

[applegrove]

8. Imagine a President who is real!

[dysfunctional press]

10. as an illinoisian, i just don't get all the fawning over obama...

he isn't even our states best senator.

and this is his first term.

you'd think that people had never seen an articulate (half)black man before, or something- because he's done absolutely NOTHING remarkable or noteworthy enough to even consider him as a possible nominee...let alone potus or vice-potus.

[warrens]

13. Roughly what they said about JFK

Obama did something remarkable: Beat out a huge and strong Dem primary roster. No one gave him a chance, and he won by a landslide. That should tell you how well he connects with people. I interviewed him for an article in August 04, and he's the real deal. Having a track record seems to be a liability these days...

[dysfunctional press]

18. JFK had avery substantial legislative record when he ran...

absolutely no comparison between the two.

[liberalpragmatist]

40. No he didn't

He spent his entire 2nd term manoevering for president and produced virtually no legislation in his first term.

And Obama has http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2006/10/barack_obama.html">a pretty substantial legislative record for a freshman senator in the minority party.

Among other things, he has sponsored legislation securing loose nukes in the Soviet Union, new regulations for genetic testing, a bill offering subsidized health care to auto workers in exchange for development of hybrids, raising CAFE standards, and avian flu preparedness.

[mcscajun]

38. JFK had served six years as a Congressman and eight as a Senator

before running for President. Aside from possible charisma, no comparison.

[NCarolinawoman]

45. Eisenhower did not leave the mess that W Is leaving us.

As I remember, my parents talked about JFK being a war hero and that helped him.

I have two African American friends who told me they would not want to vote for him because he is not experienced enough. They see what's happening on the news every night and they said he would not "make them feel safe".

There are obviously still a lot of "security Moms" as well as security fathers around.

[elehhhhna]

14. Funny you say that --nobody I know in Chicago is all that impressed

with him.

His ties to Rezko will probaby ruin him.

FYI, Kos diarists are paid by political campaigns.

[WI_DEM]

15. This was Kos himself.

[elehhhhna]

16. And Kos was a paid blogger for Dean. Just saying. I think

paid endorsements should be labelled as such and don't tend to trust the motives of some bloggers--Dem or Reep.

[WI_DEM]

17. Will he did say that it isn't an endorsement and prior to the

soundings about Obama he seemed to be thinking that Edwards had a good chance at the nomination.

[dysfunctional press]

20. that would include me.

my congressman, rahm emmanuel doesn't exactly thrill me either.

[cali]

21. Is there a weaker arguement than

the "nobody I know" canard?

[elehhhhna]

63. Fine. Want a stronger arguement? Google 'Obama Rezko' ...

A great politician--Senator Paul Simon-- once told me "Don't put a halo on any Politician." Excellent advice.

[hedgehog]

52. Of course no one from Chicago is impressed.

No prophet is honored among his own people.

[cali]

19. It's not about

his being an articulate black man. Obama has a certain je ne sais quoi. Call it charisma if you will. He's a compelling figure. John Kennedy had it. It's powerful; don't underestimate it. I've never seen anything like the reception he received here in Vermont when he came to campaign for Bernie. People were overfloing everywhere.

[WI_DEM]

22. I think Obama could be what the dem party needs in 2008 to win

JFK was considered a light weight in 1960, a playboy, Obama isn't, but he doesn't have a long resume in the Senate. Even though Obama is only in his second year in the Senate, he has a good resume, Professor of Law at University of Chicago Law School and then eight years in the Illinois State Senate. People seem to forget that Adlai Stevenson, one of the most talented men the Democratic party ever nominated, and also from Illinois, was only a first term governor when he was nominated for President in 1952.

[mcscajun]

39. Lightweight? He served six years in Congress and eight in the Senate

after serving in WWII; no one could call him a lightweight. The "playboy" label was hung around his neck by his (by comparison) stodgy Republican opponents.

[dysfunctional press]

24. how about his shaky real estate deal with rezko...?

what do they think about that in vermont?

it's a compelling story.

[cali]

26. Well, first of all

his reception in Vermont was prior to that minor revelation, and second of all, none of the pundits seem to think that the facts, as known now, constitute, a threat to him. Every candidate is going to have something that the pukes go after. With Obama it will likely be his lack of experience more than the land deal.

[dysfunctional press]

27. there's lots for them to choose from.

he just hasn't earned a spot on the ticket yet, sorry.

[CitizenLeft]

28. there was that charisma buzz even BEFORE he was elected...

Remember all the hype during his senate campaign? He blew away his opponents in the primary, if I recall, but I found myself visiting his website in JUNE of '04 just to see what all the fuss was about. One look at that photo of his wife and his daughters, and WHAM, he's got you. I wasn't a bit surprised to see him make the keynote speech. Whatever else, he's that "real thing" that comes along every so often, whether there's a lot of substance there or not - he has an effortless knack of making you look and listen that many a politician wished he had. JFK had it, RFK had it to a little lesser degree, and so does he. It's a gift, and he's going to ride it. I hope it takes him far.

[AJ9000]

25. I agree. nm

[MasonJar]

12. Obama is an incredible orator and has a message that resonates;

however, I think that his lack of experience, especially in foreign affairs will doom him. Now if he were to take the VP spot, I believe that he could really help the dems win and would be setting himself in place for 2016. Just my opinion and I will work hard for whoever wins the nomination.

[CitizenLeft]

31. I feel exactly the same way

I wish he had more experience, but a VP spot... yeah.

[AJ9000]

23. Many whites will simply not vote for a black POTUS. Besides he's

a senator, and with little expeience at that. We can do better.

[cali]

30. Many whites won't vote for him, but

many more will, and as someone pointed out upthread, Adlai Stevenson was a one term guv prior to being nominated in 1952. And c'mon, Obama's resume isn't that threadbare. He's served in public office for almost 10 years.

[AJ9000]

33. I don't see what the big deal is with him anyway. Say hello to Mcain if he's nominted.

Gore, Clark, or a former Dem gov is what we need.

[hedgehog]

54. Are these the same whites who wouldn't consider Colin Powell a few years back?

People forget that he was considered a very viable candidate before the BFEE did him in.

[NoPasaran]

29. Kos---the blogger who gave us Senator Ned Lamont!

I think his crystal ball may need a tuneup.

[WI_DEM]

32. Actually he gave us Sen. Jon Tester in MT and Jim Webb in VA

he was big boosters of both of them--early on and raised a good deal of money for them. Yeah, he supported Ned and helped win the primary for him.

[Eric J in MN]

42. Kos himself has admitted being bad at predictions.

He made optimistic predictions about Congress in 2002 and 2004 which didn't pan out.

About a month before the 2006 election, he predicted the Republicans would hold both the House and the Senate. (He updated that with an optimistic prediction right before the election.)

[Alexander]

37. Why can't Obama wait, and GET THINGS DONE first?

I mean, really? What's the hurry? After 8 years of Gore, I'm sure Obama will be plenty ready for the presidency, he'll only be 55, and he'll have a longer list of legislative accomplishments.

There were very few Gore supporters here who would've supported a presidential run from him in 1984 - during his first term in the Senate. Because at that time, he hadn't done much that was noteworthy.

I feel the same way about Obama.

[Eric J in MN]

41. So what if Iowa and Illinois are geographically close?

Are you full of adoration of Senators because they happen to represent a nearby state?

[benny05]

48. Not me

But I guess some folks think it's easier to get the ground troops together from neighboring states.

[KharmaTrain]

43. We'll See How He Does At Those Iowa Chicken Dinners

All the best PR doesn't beat the best organization...and Kos should know this. Obama hasn't gotten an organization while several others have already locked away party precinct captains in key areas of Iowa and New Hampshire. Democrats have had other "favorite son" type candidates in the past...Mo Udall, Jerry Brown, Gene McCarthy and Howard Dean who gained a lot of positive buzz, but had little "on the ground" and came up short when it came to counting the cacus and primary votes.

Methinks Kos underestimates John Edwards...who already is polling strongest against both McCain and Guilliani than any other Democratic candidate...and had been at work on the ground quietly maintaining the network he set up in '04 that kept him in the primaries late into the season.

Kos also seems to be discounting Hillary and New Hampshire. If she's gonna get into the game, that's where she gets to reprise "Comeback Kid II" and then move into the bigger states...especially if California moves up its primary date...who would win that state?

Barak is riding the PR wave, but we've seen these roll out as fast as they roll in. The first primary vote still is over a year away and media punditry can go from new and novel to old and stale quickly.

This is like the baseball hot stove league...every team or candidate has a chance.

[benny05]

51. I agree that Ground Boots Organization Important

And I'm not so certain Gov Vilsack is a shoo-in. He's a nice person and I've met him very briefly once, but his speech didn't exactly light a fire under me like John Edwards did at the same gathering.

[jefferson_dem]

59. Actually, Obama is positioned pretty well in Iowa.

From Des Moines Register, last week --

<SNIP>

Acting as a key contact for Obama in Iowa is Steve Hildebrand, a longtime aide to former South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle. Hildebrand ran Al Gore's campaign for the 2000 Iowa caucuses.

Also part of Obama's team is David Axelrod, a Chicago-based media consultant who produced Vilsack's ads during his 1998 and 2002 gubernatorial campaigns.

Axelrod also produced ads for Edwards, including for his 2004 Iowa caucus campaign.

Longtime Democratic pollster Paul Harsted, who has worked for Harkin and Vilsack, is also signed on with Obama.

The group of advisers suggests that Obama could mount a credible Iowa caucus campaign, said his spokesman, Robert Gibbs, who was Kerry's national spokesman for a time during the 2004 presidential campaign.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061126/NEWS09/611260332

[Pirate Smile]

61. I remember hearing how great Gephardt's organization was going

to be and how they would win it for him.

Edwards did well in 2004 and certainly polled well in IA according to the last one I saw (he was in first - DMR poll).

I wonder when the next Iowa poll will show up. I bet it will be soon. It will be interesting to see how Obama mixes it up.

[dogday]

49. Maybe one day, but not 2008 nt

[madrchsod]

50. what has obama done to deserve our consideration?

he still has a lot to learn about being a senator let alone being a president. he needs to finish out at least one term as a senator before i`d consider voting for him in a primary. i want to see what he`s going to do for us in illinois now that we have the senate.

[LSK]

53. Kos: "Voter Fraud? What voter fraud?"

Whatever.

[KoKo]

55. Al GORE COME ON IN...but COME IN LATE...because there's no

way in Hell that alot of Dems are going to sign onto an Obama/Edwards platform. Even if it's Edwards/Obama....just because we don't want a little fundie state like SC deciding for the REST OF AMERICA WHO WE VOTE FOR!!!

Caveat: I grew up in SC before it turned to the DARK SIDE and I tell you as a SC Born I would NEVER vote the way SC VOTES as a Democrat.

Kos was doing a "Devil's Advocate" post here to shake Gore's chains. But, its still to early for Gore to come in. The Whore Media will be on him for rolling his shopping cart through Lowe's buying lightbulbs.

If Gore doesn't run...lots of us are going to be disenfranchised Dem Voters. Send this over to Kos...because I don't do his site...but really like him and bought his book and met him on his Book Tour here in NC.

It's too early for Gore...but damn it if I will throw my "early support" to Obama/Edwards or Edwards/Obama THIS EARLY!!!!

[in_cog_ni_to]

56. IF it looked like Obama was going to win and be our Prez, he'd be assassinated.

The KKK could NEVER deal with a BLACK MAN being their President and I wouldn't put it past the Southern GOP to HIRE them to knock off that "uppity Black Man." :( Barak's wife has voiced this concern and she has every right to be worried. Racism is alive and well in the good old USA...ask Harold Ford.

I heard a repuke stradegist say that if Al Gore got in th erace, the rest of the Dems may as well hang it up because Gore would win...BIG. I see Kos agrees.:)

[jefferson_dem]

60. Not cool.

n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

62. This is more than too early to say

Most of us here don't even know Obama's positions on many important issues, and we tend to be the ones who pay attention to these things. And a comment like "What's more, Obama would be tough to beat in the general. He would very well be the favorite in that race, even against McCain, and would probably be a net positive for Democrats running down the ballot..." what's that based on? Anything?