In 2008 the Republicans are in for another "Thumpin", as Bush put it. In 2008, a lopsided 21 Republicans are running for re-election against just 12 Democrats, most of whom are safe bets. Here is the complete list:
Democrats:
Max Baucus (Safe seat)
Carl Levin (Safe seat)
Mark Pryor (Safe seat, might become competitive if Huckabee runs against him, but its more likely he'll seek the VP spot for 08')
Dick Durbin (Safe seat)
Joe Biden (Safe seat)
John Kerry (Safe seat)
Jack Reed (Safe seat)
Jay Rockefeller (Safe seat)
Tim Johnson (Safe seat)
Tom Harkin (Vulnerable)
Mary Landrieu (Very vulnerable)
Frank Lautenberg (Very vulnerable)
The way I see, Lautenberg is the only visible Democrat in "deep shit", so to speak. Landrieu has positive approval ratings, but she's got serious problems running in Louisiana, which has lost a lot of black voters, and which is trending strongly Republican over the last couple of years. Lautenberg and Landrieu are the most vulnerable seats. Harkin is also pretty vulnerable, he only wins by squeakers. Tim Johnson of South Dakota is a guaranteed re-election unless the GOP governor of SD runs against him, in which it'll be a nail biter, but Johnson will still hold an edge. He has a 70%+ approval rating. Conceivably, the only safe seat that might be in trouble if the Dem retires is Jay Rockefeller out in West Virginia, but I've learned never to underestimate the staggering power of the West Virginia Democratic Party on the state-level.
On the Republican side, the situation is ripe for some pickups:
Saxy Chambliss (Safe seat)
Jeff Sessions (Safe seat)
Thad Cockran (Safe seat)
Larry Craig (Safe seat)
Chuck Hagel (Safe seat)
Michael Enzi (Safe seat)
Lindsay Graham (Safe seat, unless he's defeated in the GOP primary)
Mitch McConnell (Safe seat)
Ted Stevens (Safe seat)
John Warner (Probably safe seat, but it's a toss-up if he retires)
Elizabeth Dole (Safe seat, unless Dem governor runs for it)
Susan Collins (Safe seat, but guaranteed pick up if she retires)
Pete Domenici (Safe seat, if he retires, it's a toss up)
Wayne Allard (Very vulnerable)
Gordon Smith (Very vulnerable)
John Sununu (Vulnerable)
John Cornyn (Vulnerable)
Pat Roberts (Vulnerable)
James Inhofe (Vulnerable)
Norm Coleman (Vulnerable)
Ultimately, the number of GOP vulnerable seats may increase dramatically depending on how many open seats there are. If Susan Collins retires in Maine, that's practically an automatic Democratic pick up. If Elizabeth Dole resigns in North Carolina, that will be a nail biter unless the Republicans nominate someone very popular, and if the current Democratic governor runs for the open seat, it's a likely pick up; if he runs against Dole, that's a nail biter. If John Warner resigns in Virginia and it's an open seat, the Dems have a good chance of picking it up as Virginia continues to trend Democratic. Wayne Allard is unpopular in Colorado, which has undergone a political realignment. That's a high priority pick up opportunity. If he doesn't run in 2008, there's a very good chances Dems will pick it up. Sununu, another high priority pick up opportunity in a state trending steadily Democratic. Pat Roberts, amazingly, is slightly unpopular in Kansas, which is another state where Democrats have gained a lot of ground, knocking off the GOP Attorney General and one house incumbent in Kansas and the Dem governor winning a landslide re-election. Kansas is currently undergoing a civil war between moderate and conservative Republicans that might bleed over into 2008. It's getting intense out there. Republicans are jumping ship. 9 of them ran as Democrats in Kansas in 2006. Some won. James Inhofe, AMAZINGLY, has proven unpopular in Oklahoma. Even in Oklahoma people recognize this guy as an extremist. The question is whether the Dems can find someone with some stature to challenge him. If they can, they could very well knock him off. Cornyn in Texas is another surprise. Low approval ratings. He's proven to be an extremist as well, about 30 points less popular than his fellow GOP senator. We can knock this guy off if we find a popular Dem. We'll see. Gordon Smith is running in a blue state and is only modest in his approval ratings. Another pick up opportunity. Coleman is also a strange case. If Franken runs this will be a particularly intense race, and Minnesota is fluctuating right now. IT's both trending Dem and Rep at the same time. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
So I think 2008 will be a good year in the sense that there's very little chance Republicans will retake the Senate. A likely scenario, I think, is that we probably gain 2 seats overall. The worst case scenario I can see is that we lose 1 seat and who controls the senate will be decided by who the vice president is.
Edit: thanks for the reminder, forgot about Coleman.
Edit: The Freepers agree with me!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1736477/posts