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This is a follow-up on a (widely misunderstood) post from yesterday that asked some questions about where we are. The key point to understand about polls is that they are NOT predictions. They are snapshots of how people would have voted on a certain day. So election results don't show which polls were "right" and "wrong."
It became obvious yesterday that something bad happened last Thursday-Friday and that if the election were held last Thursday we would have been in a difficult environment. National Congressional Generic polls that ended Wednesday were all very good, showing a profound Democratic wave. But all polls that included the end of last week showed a dampening effect so strong that it could have represented a shift in momentum.
History shows that late momentum moves enlarge and carry through to election day. An alarming number of people make up their minds in the last weekend. For instance, if an incumbent has a five point lead in every poll for months then the very last poll shows a dead heat the challenger will tend to win big. Carter and Reagan were tied in 1980 but the late momentum was to Reagan and it carried through in a landslide. In 1994 many Republicans appeared to be tied late but won by 8%. Humphrey made a late move in 1968. Ford made a late move in 1976. All those late moves were shown as little momentum shifts in late polling that magnified on election day.
So, in very late polls the DIRECTION of the trend is as important as the absolute numbers. The question I was addressing last night was this: We know there was a big dip late last week. Such a dip could either 1) presage a shift in momentum, or 2) roll off the sample as later polls drop the November 2-3 period. A related question was whether the Republican move was "lumpy", meaning big gains concentrated in safe Republican districts, like the ones Bush has been visiting. (If a national generic move was localized to feverish Republican support in uncontested red districts it would have little effect on the election results.)
We have two more polls today that do not include last Thursday and both show a rebound, suggesting that the Kerry-flap buyer's remorse effect was localized in time and that prevailing anti-incumbent trends have reasserted themselves. This is Good News.
If the election were held last Thursday we would have been lucky to win the House. If the election were held Sunday we would have won the House pretty easily. Th election is tomorrow, of course, and things are looking good. The tightening appears to be a natural late campaign effect without a change in the underlying pro-Democratic trend.
SUMMARY: Polling data from last Thurs-Fri raised the question whether late-week damage was temporary or a momentum shift. That was (an is) a real question. If today's polls had not shown a rebound we would have been in serious trouble. But they do show a rebound. (Fox and CNN polls today look pretty good.) The very last polling sets seem to indicate that 1) The Democratic trend remains in place, and 2) That resurgence of the Republican base is localized in areas we were never going to win in any election. So everything is looking good.
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