Why I think election fraud won't throw the election this time.

[Old and In the Way]

I know that there's a great deal of concern about Karl Rove throwing a switch at the WH and all races will magically change to favor Republicans. While I know there will be pockets of problems, I think we need to keep a few things in perspective about this election.

1) Not every state and every Republican is corrupt in the Bob Ney/Jack Cunningham/Jack Abramoff sense. Many will do whatever they can to win, but do it in a reasonably fair and honorable weay. That doesn't include commiting crimes. These people are not part of the Republican Syndicate that exists at a uber-national level. They are our friends and neighbors who believe in democratic elections, just like we do.

2) Conditions in 2000 / 2002 /2004 showed a more more evenly divided electorate. The Red vs. Blue State divide did exist and was exploited, no question. Those conditions allowed the Republicans to focus their energies in Florida and Ohio to do their dirty work. Since 2004, the erosion in Bush and Republican popularity has been steadily in decline. They are now fighting to maintain their base...and losing. They cannot focus on one state and certain precincts to pull an elaborate election heist that will flip the results....where would they even start today?

3) We are far more activated in this election. Not just DU, but the whole Party. Everyone is getting educated and cognizant about the threat to fraud....there will be literally millions of eyeballs watching the poll watchers.

4) The media has come around to the threat of election fraud. These people now understand the implications it brings to our democracy. They, too, have children and grandchildren who have to live in this country under the threat of a corrupt one party rule. They have a vested interest in protecting democracy. True, they've partied hard on the free Republican kool-aid for the past decade....but they are waking up to the hangover reality that they, themselves, have created.

5) Most importantly, the consensus is that the Democrats will be in control of the House. The actual #s are unknown, but it is a foregone conclusion. Would you want to risk a prison term trying to game an election, knowing this fact? Because you know that election reform and investigations will be a top priority in the new Democratic House. They will have the power to investigate, subpeona, and, if warranted, drive criminal prosecution of electioneering crimes. Would you want to be risking your future, helping Karl Rove to save his, by gaming the local elections? There will be a lot of Democratic lawyers working for Governor Dean this cycle who are fully prepared to kick elephant ass and take names....


I am posting this, not to create a 'sit back, relax, and enjoy the scenery' complacency...we need to stay vigilant and motivated over the next 48 hours. Do your part to GOTV. I fully expect that the GOP wants to depress/surpress our motivation to vote...that includes injecting doubts that we can't win because the Republicans will steal it again. That is the real threat, creating a sense of hopelessness....don't let 'em psych you out.

[NanceGreggs]

1. Beautifully stated, my friend!

I am especially glad you included: "These people are not part of the Republican Syndicate that exists at a uber-national level. They are our friends and neighbors who believe in democratic elections, just like we do."

The worst of the BushCo crimes (and there have been MANY) is the divisiveness they have created, to the point where each party member sees the other as a sworn enemy. Such is not the case. There ARE truly good and moral Republicans, including many presently in office.

Too many of us have lost sight of that. There are many corrupt people in the GOP; but not every Republican is corrupt.

On to victory on Tuesday. And thank you for your very timely and well-written piece.

[Old and In the Way]

4. On to victory!

:toast:

[NanceGreggs]

6. Meet me here for a toast on Tuesday ...

... I'll be in the "Having the Time of Your Life" section!

:toast:

[Old and In the Way]

7. I plan to be royally snookered Tuesday night.

This time, I fully expect no buzzkill. :-) I'll stagger over.

[NanceGreggs]

8. Not to worry ...

... with so many of us there, we can always find you a ride home!

[Old and In the Way]

9. My reputation precedes me.

;-)

[NanceGreggs]

11. Not at all ...

... just plan to be pretty blitzed myself, and recognize a kindred spirit!

[Raster]

24. I think there will be a lot of us in the same condition on Tuesday.

We will be celebrating our country's long-awaited return to sanity.

[NanceGreggs]

25. Amen, brother.

Amen.

[Blackthorn]

2. Hmmmmmmm. I find most of your comments highly speculative and illogical.

It is highly irresponsible to start calling elections "foregone conclusions". Isn't Bush sitting in his bathtub thinking the same thing?

[Old and In the Way]

3. Well, you're more than welcome to start a speculative and illogical

OP that the Republicans will steal this election again. We haven't had too many of those yet.

[Blackthorn]

20. Only speculative and illogical if you ignore 2000, 2002 and 2004.

But I'm sure you just think Dems were unlucky.

[Old and In the Way]

30. Thanks for the concern, mate.

Check my posts back in 2002.

[ms liberty]

5. Re #5: yes, the perception is much of the battle...

The tightness of the polls with their near 50/50 splits in recent elections did allow the Republicult to gain advantage by manipulating media opinion, who then manipulated the opinions of the public. Because of the perception that they were neck and neck, or just ahead, they were able to go on the offense and paint us as the "thieves" who were trying to "steal" the election. We got stuck painted as sore losers and conspiracy nuts.

I think in this election that will be one of the main differences from what we've experienced since 2000. The media is NOT with them anymore, their subservience has pretty much worn off. They're finally reporting real news rather than the fantasy-based views of this admin. Every day brings new negative stories starring some GOP Family Values Champion, and each new story peels off a few more people for whom the new scandal is the last straw.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

10. Which Democrats have said that they intend to pursue election reform?

[LeftCoast]

12. Very well written!

I think you bring up a lot of very good points. As others have stated, I like that you remind us that not all republicans are evil. It's hard to believe that at times, but I think it's true as well. :)

[BruceMcF]

13. Like the argument, prefer it in second person plural ...

... to wit, We Won't Let Election Fraud Throw the Election This Time.

Damn, if lazy old me is going to be going out as an election observer, there has got to be a regular army. So get on board, I'm sure they are expecting some last minute calls from people wanting to help ... go to the http://electiondefensealliance.org/">Election Protection Alliance and find out how you can help.

[Old and In the Way]

15. Thanks BruceMcF

I'll be involved locally, always am. But not much to worry about where I live. Same faces on both sides of the fence every election year.

Welcome onboard!

[Octafish]

14. Thanks for seeing the Big Picture, Old and In the Way.

All hands on deck.

Maximum vigilance and maximum effort will bring victory.

Then come maximum prosecutions.

[Old and In the Way]

16. I'm with you there, Octafish....but you already knew that.

I wonder if Bush will be diverting AF1 to Paraguay on 11/8? :toast:

[Octafish]

23. All HIS friends are there.

Rev Moon.
Alfredo Stroessner.
Josef Mengele, Jr.

[leveymg]

17. That hit it square in the eye of the target, OAITW

Am right now sitting in a campaign headquarters with a bunch of Democratic lawyers in PA. There are more than 100 watching the polls just in Curt Weldon's district, in the suburbs west of Philadelphia.

Yesterday, 200 volunteers canvassed this area, visiting 20,000 homes. That is phenonemenal - twice the level of daily contacts during the election two years ago. Democrats are charged up and ready to win this one.

Nothing's going to get past them. We're going to win this election, and we will retake Congress.

[Old and In the Way]

18. Thanks Mark...a few of my favorite DUer's responded on this thread.

Appreciate it and look forward to having a virtual beer with you on Tuesday PM. There's going to be a big demand for real investigative reporters when the Democrats take back Congress...you'll be in a seller's market! :toast:

[Raster]

19. You are so correct. Add to the mix that most of America ALREADY SUSPECTS

electoral dirty dealings by bushco*. Any win for rethuglicans is suspect out of the starting gate. With this election come the potential for a House with a Democratic majority with subpoena power and a mandate from the voters to make dramatic changes. It won't be easy with a Democrat-controlled Congress to simply sweep the electoral anomalies under the table. There well may be criminal implications. There will be investigations. The smart money is NOT on george bush*. His and kkkarl rove's political capital and clout diminish each day. The smart money says to buy a shredder, keep your head down and hope you're not called to testify. Only a confirmed idiot would help throw this election.

[understandinglife]

21. Well stated. We must prevail. Humanity depends on us doing nothing less.

Peace.

[Land Shark]

22. As an election attorney NOBODY is thinking there's a "switch" at the WH

That's just a straw man. But anyway, it's interesting that there's this feeling that the only way people will be able to get enthused to defend their democracy is if there's not any real threat and if it's not that bad.... On the other hand, if it IS that bad, then we'll all be too depressed to do anything, supposedly... This is interesting logic to say the least.

Point by point:

1) Not every state and every Republican is corrupt in the Bob Ney/Jack Cunningham/Jack Abramoff sense. Many will do whatever they can to win, but do it in a reasonably fair and honorable weay. That doesn't include commiting crimes. These people are not part of the Republican Syndicate that exists at a uber-national level. They are our friends and neighbors who believe in democratic elections, just like we do.

RESPONSE: Most fraud has nothing to do with campaigns or Rove, etc. Every voter who casts a vote and every corporation with contracts before the government has an incentive to cheat. We all know who what when where and why of the fraud because we know who our favoriate candidate is, we know what they need which is ballots, we know when which is 11-7-06, we know where which is the announced polling places and central tabulators, and we know why (to win elections). We know all of this without a single communication from a single campaign. So, all somebody needs is opportunity to "help" and then we have our election fraud... In that light, we all stuff the online ballot boxes of polls by notifying our like minded friends, so with stakes a little higher, like say control of the congress of the world's richest nation and sole superpower, MIGHT THERE BE A TINY LITTLE INCENTIVE TO STUFF THE BALLOT BOX THERE, TOO?

2) Conditions in 2000 / 2002 /2004 showed a more more evenly divided electorate. The Red vs. Blue State divide did exist and was exploited, no question. Those conditions allowed the Republicans to focus their energies in Florida and Ohio to do their dirty work. Since 2004, the erosion in Bush and Republican popularity has been steadily in decline. They are now fighting to maintain their base...and losing. They cannot focus on one state and certain precincts to pull an elaborate election heist that will flip the results....where would they even start today?

RESPONSE While truly large margin advantages can not CREDIBLY be stolen, any election can be as a technical matter, and leads do not affect the ease of the actual heist AT ALL. As far as whether the upcoming elections can be credibly stolen goes, they are now reporting on CNN that the advantage of the dems has dropped from 16% in terms of preference for Congress down to 4% (pew) or 5-6% (JeffGreenfield on Wolf Blitzer's election show at 250 PST today)

3) We are far more activated in this election. Not just DU, but the whole Party. Everyone is getting educated and cognizant about the threat to fraud....there will be literally millions of eyeballs watching the poll watchers.

RESPONSE: THe majority of each election system is INVISIBLE (located on hard drives, etc.) Eyeballs watching pollworkers are still needed, but this reassurance is misleading because so much of the elections systems can not be seen.

4) The media has come around to the threat of election fraud.

RESPONSE: A little bit, not all that much considering the actual situation with regard to totally secret vote counting throughout 80% of the US via electronic voting, etc.

5) consensus that the Democrats will be in control of the House. The actual #s are unknown, but it is a foregone conclusion. Would you want to risk a prison term trying to game an election, knowing this fact? ... There are a lot of Democratic lawyers ready...

RESPONSE: I'd like to know the names of these lawyers. I've litigated a congressional election contest in CA's 50th Cong. Dist. and I've not heard from a single one. Have any names?


That is the real threat, creating a sense of hopelessness....don't let 'em psych you out.

RESPONSE: Hopelessness is an issue, but the type of optimism that involves the denial of actual facts is not really hopeful in the short or long run...

The Republicans will likely file more election contests than Dems, because incumbents can only be replaced through valid elections. Think about the perverse incentives here when you contemplate the passage of HAVA by ney, abramoff and friends.

[Raster]

27. My friend, it all comes down to this: Is this our line in the sand?

Tuesday will tell us whether it's politics as usual or a new type of American Revolution. Even if by hook or by crook the rethuglicans hold on to Congress, it will NEVER be politics as usual again. The last six years have highlighted EVERYTHING wrong with politics as usual. We owe bushco* a debt of gratitude for succinctly illustrating to Mr. and Mrs. America just how truly rotten and decrepit politics--AND government--in America has become.

[Old and In the Way]

29. Well, Paul, I agree - all of your points are truly valid.

But it's people like you that give me optimism that we are countering these bastards moves. There may well be fraud committed...but it's a hell of a lot different than Georgia in 2002. I think the work you and many, many others here and on the ground/in the trenches are making the difference. You folks know the tricks and traps that they are going to use....they've lost the advantage of uninformed stealth that they had in 2002 and 2004. It's in the open and it's no longer a conspiracy theory shared by the lunatic fringes on the 'net.

The intent of my post was not to promote a relax and feel good attitude about this election...that breeds complacency and complacency got us Bush in 2000. I only wish the internets had matured around 1992...we may had a totally different outcome in 2000 and avoided the criminals who cooked up HAVA altogether. My OP was addressing what I think is a nefarious attempt to plant a "all is lost" virus on the internet....hoping it is contagious and discourages significant turnout on Election Day. DU is certainly an important place to l seed this idea. Election integrity is an obvious concern...but there are valid reasons to be optimistic as well. We've come a long ways from the 'WTF is going on with the election results?' of 2002...the fact is we do know now and that knowledge has allowed us to begin attacking and neutralizing the sources of the fraud.

I am concerned about a Republican scortched earth strategy to contest every election in court; they aren't going to be doing this because they are so committed to their political philosophy; there doing it because they know that their personal legal futures hang in the balance.

I think we are going to need to pony up big $ to counter this. Any suggestions as to where we should be sending checks to support the legal efforts and maximize the effectiveness of these contributions?

[tavalon]

26. This is the only reason

I think we might win the election on Tuesday. That said, the system is still corrupt and the thugs will continue to try to game the system so it is highly important that on Wednesday, we continue the fight to make elections transparent and publicly run. No private and proprietary company should be counting our votes, and that includes blue companies as well as red.

[Qutzupalotl]

28. I think they'll still try their best to steal it.

There's too much at stake for them; all the crimes that have yet to come to light. John Conyers with subpoena power makes them quake in their drugstore cowboy boots.

But I don't think they'll be able to stop the tide entirely. Cheney's worried. He had some documents "taken care of" recently, just in case. Most Republicans are publicly worried, except for Bush's inner circle: Rove, Mehlman, Bush. They are publicly optimistic, predicting they'll hold both chambers. So something's up that only they know about. Cheney's just been shut out of the process.

They're damned if they do steal it, and damned if they don't. They know there will be a revolt if we don't take the house. And if we do take it, that means lights out for most of them. They'll have to classify everything and fight it in the courts until 2009.

[aquart]

31. I agree. Thank you.

[FernBell]

32. k&r

[haymark]

33. KICK