New Poll result for TN Senate & Arizona Senate

[WI_DEM]

A Rassmussen Poll will, unbelieveably, give Corker a 53-45 point lead over Harold Ford, Jr. So far only the premium members have access to this. This unfortunately mirrors other recent polls by Zogby (53-43) and CNN (52-44) which give Corker similar leads. Let's hope the voters will decide otherwise on Tuesday. The sad thing is that this race has been trending away from Harold Ford since that dispecable racist Corker ad, which makes you wonder what is up with people?

On a more positive note, another new poll shows the Arizona Senate race closing. Kyl leads Pederson 45.8-41.3 (which is within the moe) and according to one source Pederson has been leading in early voting results. Also, the Dem Senate Committee has also seen the trend towards Pederson and is buying up all available TV time for Pederson.

www.dailykos.com

[Kira]

1. can we pick up the Senate

without this seat? I thought Ford was going to pull this off.

[Zynx]

3. Yes, with Virginia and Missouri we get 51 assuming the other four

break our way, which it looks like they will.

[Kira]

4. I read yesterday

Missouri is tied at about 48-48. Have you seen anything new today?

[warrens]

7. Still 49-49 this morning

It will be a turnout contest. But the stem cell issue has really motivated the sane people in Missouri and suppressed some of the wingnuts who would also like to be cured of horrible diseases.

[LynneSin]

6. But if we don't win Connecticut we may need 7 seats

I know Lieberman said he would caucus with the Democrats, which is all I want from him if he manages to pull out the win. But I don't trust him. I'd feel much safer if it was seven seats we picked up and not 6

[Zynx]

11. We have three days of campaigning left. We don't have many options.

[Zynx]

2. TN is a very Republican state now. Virginia, Missouri, and Arizona should

be the last minute targets.

[cautiouslywaiting]

5. I can't believe that.

They've been tied for a while now and suddenly, just before the election, Corker's winning? I don't believe it.

[ps1074]

8. Playboy ad?

NRC released it just in time. Sad but true...

[cautiouslywaiting]

10. You think that did it?

It looked like a stupid ad to me. But I guess I shouldn't assume that everyone else saw through it too.

[BootinUp]

13. combination

of the disgusting smear ads and lackluster debate performance in the last debate. Corker looked smoother in that one, seems to have been better prepared.

[mhatrw]

14. What kind of voting machines do they have?

I'm worried about Maryland because they are 100% Diebold.

[Subdivisions]

9. I predict Ford will win despite those polls. And even if he doesn't

I think we'll still win MD, OH, VA, MO, MT for a tie in the Senate. Which, when you throw in a couple of lilly-livered, damn-near-lost-my-seat Republics, you get a Dem issue majority vote.

Edited to add: If we lose CT and/or NJ, of course this will be a substantially weakened position.

[longship]

12. Do *not* trust individual polls this year.

There is no stability in them. They are flipping around back and forth. There is little concensus between them. Does anybody really think that this is a real effect? I don't. People may be indecisive, but then they would show up as undecided, not changing their minds back and forth.

Something is very screwy with the candidate polls this year. I believe strongly that many of them are not going to prove accurate on Tuesday because Democratic strength is much higher than the pollsters are modelling, especially with independents, who seem to be voting for Democrats in huge numbers in early voting.

What's important this year are the big issue, national polls and the *accumulation* of the candidate polls. They portray an entirely different picture. This is why Stuart Rothenberg and other analysts have moved so strongly to big gains by Democrats.

Look at the candidate polls only when they show a trend.

Also, pay attention to the undecideds. Figure that they will break for the Democrats in large percentages. If voters haven't decided to vote for the incumbent party by this late date, the incumbent party is in *huge* trouble.

Other indicators in the polls. If a candidate is reliably polling at or over 50%, that race is probably over.

[dbackjon]

15. Corker has run over 12,000 ads in TN

Ford only 7,000.

Most of Corkers are negative. He disgusts me.

[A wise Man]

16. The funny thing that's wrong

about all these polls are that we are grasping for a positive descision, whereas the repugs are determine to steal another election. We haven't loss a thing.

[Lexingtonian]

17. no surprise here

The change in numbers is essentially the Christian Right mobilization in Tennessee that began on October 15 with that 'Liberty Sunday' thang. If you watched the pollings in '04, the same thing happened. I don't think that ad had any real effect one way or the other; it just distracts from the way the Right really works in the South- via nonpublic media and forum, such as churches and social clubs, which creates a group/herd effect.

That's the unfortunate thing for Democrats in the South and southern Midwest- the Christian Right can still mobilize/create a majority against our team in those states. The theocrats have lost power on their geographical periphery- Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Colorado, and New Mexico have slipped beyond their reach already. This year they're fighting desperately to keep control in the Dakotas (the abortion ban referendum), Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. And they're struggling as a lesser power (but crucial to Republicans in keeping majorities in Congress) in Idaho, eastern Washington and Oregon, the California Valley and southern California, Nevada, and- of course- Arizona.

After this election I think/ hope the Christian Right is a broken force in the West outside Utah and reduced to the historical South in the East. Politically, it's badly wounded and bleeding out slowly as a national power. Democrats winning Congress this year and especially that SD referendum result could be the mortal wounds.

I think we're going to surprise the running Beltway "wisdom" about Arizona and badly shock the pundits about Nevada on Election Day. That "but we're a center-Right country" central tenet of the Pundit Faith is going to become a God That Failed.