The Haggard Effect on the Evangelical Vote?

[npincus]

Frankly, aside from a few good yuks (REALLY good yuks), will this turn of events have any effect at all on Evangelical turnout? Has Haggard inextricably linked himself and his cause with the Republican party, that Evengelicals empower to carry out their anti-gay agenda?

After the Foley affair, and now a leader exposed as a traitor to their 'values', will they be so disgusted that they turn off and tune out, and abstain from voting next Tuesday?

Do you think this will have any effect at all? Or just wishful thinking?

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2006/11/03/tedhaggard_wideweb__470x352,0.jpg

http://www.tedhaggard.com/

[Sammy Pepys]

1. I've never even heard of this guy...

...but then I'm not a evangelical.

[malaise]

5. Wait until the Fundie voters

discover that Falwell claims not to know him either :D.

[Syncronaut Seven]

29. I figure, the evangelicals who show for this election

Might as well fess to the truth. This sort of behavior is O.K. with them.

I'd be ashamed to show my face on election day.

There isn't a soap strong enough to wash this stink off.

[uncle ray]

31. that dosn't answer the question very well.

nationally, no, it may not have much of an effect, but locally, i think it will.

i live in Colorado Springs, home to Dobsons Focus on the Family and Haggards New Life Church. haggard's congregation is 14,000 people in a city that is very religous and very conserative. the important part of this, is Dems are in a very close race for the open 5th congressional seat here. Jay Fawcett has a chance of winning the seat for the Dems. repubs have had it for something like 28 years IIRC. they are tied in the polls with a large % of undecideds. this is huge news locally and with any luck the evangelicals will just stay home and weep. Fawcett's campaign is trying real hard to court republican voters, and it's working. his opponent doug lamborn has little support from his own party.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. In a vacuum, it might not have an effect...

but after Foley and all of the other issues, I think it does have an impact. Although, I don't expect the impact to be much larger now than it would've been otherwise.

[marmar]

3. I doubt the extremists will vote Dem, but....

I'm hoping they'll be so disillusioned that they'll just stay home and watch "The Passion of the Christ" or something.

[liberal N proud]

4. About as much effect as a John Kerry botched joke

It has little effect because these people will deny that it is possible they have been lied to.

[Lautremont]

6. No effect.

I just put this in another thread, but I'll say it again: anyone for whom this guy's gayness is an issue can easily put it aside when it comes to voting day. They can marginalize him the same way they did Foley, and this Haggard fellow (whom I've never heard of either, but can imagine living more and more up to his name with each successive public appearance from now on) isn't even a politician.

[KyndCulture]

7. No effect.

[acmavm]

8. Yes, it most certainly does have an effect. I remember the

Jim Bakker affair, and the other one, what was his name? (I guess I don't remember it as clearly as I would want.)

Anyway, that shook their insulted perverted twisted little worlds for quite some time. They (the evangelicals) were not so vocal, so loud. They are better at ignoring the really horrible sins of people like Robertson who deal with corrupt government officials and invests in oil and diamond and gold at the expense of the lives of the natives of the African countries that these corporations are located in. But see, that doesn't have anything to do with what they are really interested in, and that's everyone else's sex lives. They are fixated on everyone's crotches. And the 'dirtier' the scandal, the more disillusioned they become. And hell, this is a doozy. Homosexuality, a preacher, a call boy, drugs (meth no less), what the hell else could they ask for.

[charlyvi]

19. You mean Jimmy Swaggert? (sp)

He was found soliciting a prostitute; he tearfully repented, then did the same thing again. People still send him money.

[acmavm]

25. Yep, that's him. They may send him money, but not like they

used to. He was sooooo diminished after that, he could have cried gold tears and it wouldn't have helped.

But this Haggard clown, he's special. He says he talks to bush** once a week. People will connect that with bush** and his constant babbling about how he has a direct pipeline to God. And they're going to wonder if that pipeline is a little kinkdy. And for those rascals, the mere hint of sex is enough to freak them out.

[Norquist Nemesis]

9. Couldn't say either way

I suppose he's well-known in those circles and it could go either way, IMO. The 'cult' mentality is extremely hard to break and it's more likely that the steadfast followers will twist it into another take down on Christs soldiers. There's going to be a good number of them that will immediately take action to ummm....defend the Family (so to speak). Whether that will be a majority or not is yet to be seen.

[movie_girl99]

10. wasn't he the guy in Jesus Camp? n/t

[Beausoir]

11. Hard to tell. Such ignorant sheep are unpredictable.

They go through life being told what, how and when to think.

It's almost a genetic blindspot to reason.

[cautiouslywaiting]

12. No effect.

He wasn't running for office. He's a hypocrite but I don't see how he has anything to do with the election.

[David__77]

13. That's naive.

All kinds of things effect elections like this. If some prominent left-winger did this, it'd effect things too. First, by changing the conversation and the "conventional wisdom." Undecideds break on this stuff. Second, it is demoralizing to the religious right, who already suspect correctly they're being played by the neo-con string-pullers.

[cautiouslywaiting]

15. I don't think so.

I still think we're gonna win but I don't see this as making the evangelicals stay home. If anything, it'll only scare them more about gay marriage.

[David__77]

21. possibly.

but I still believe it's a plus in the broader political climate. It points to the right-wing hypocrisy and tears away the mask. That is a good thing for the more libertarian GOP-leaners.

[cautiouslywaiting]

30. Maybe.

I hope you're right. It is perfect timing.

[Cocoa]

26. ballot initiatives

there are two major gay-related ballot initiatives in Colorado, and many more nationwide.

These initiatives are used strategically to boost voter turnout. Many republican votes will come from people who would not have bothered to vote if it weren't for those referendums.

[cautiouslywaiting]

28. Exactly

They're using the "gay agenda" to scare the fundies into believing that we're going to take over the country and destroy it.

[sqarebis]

14. Let's hope it helps out

...even if just a little bit. It sure blunts the Kerry flap IMHO.

[stanwyck]

16. My concern is

will so-called "values voters" even know about Haggard? The evangelicals I work with never seem to have a clue about current news. They get their "news" at church. Seriously. They don't trust newspapers. And they don't trust network news. So...unless the Christian radio station or their pastor is talking about Haggard, they won't even know this is a story.
I'm not really optimistic about how much impact reality has on many of the "values voters".
They live in their own world.

[leftofthedial]

17. negligible

many will just hate gays all the more

[donsu]

18. it surely will cause tremendous conversation among the 14,000

members of his church.

[BrotherBuzz]

23. It's hard to converse when you're comatose

DURHAM D called a close friend (former evangelical preacher) and asked him what the congregation's political response might be. He immediately said they will become completely comatose - they won't vote at all.

Right now the congregation is likely in denial - it will take a few days for them to own the truth about their beloved pastor. 14,000 less votes for a republican in the 5th district is a windfall for Jay Fawcett, a Fighting Dem and Air Force Academy graduate who is running a close race.

[BlackVelvet04]

20. I think it will have a bit of an impact.....

some will become discouraged and stay home but I don't think it will be significant.

[Imagevision]

22. Is Haggard a top or bottom?

[GreenPartyVoter]

24. No effect. Denial run strong in that crowd.

[librechik]

27. no kidding--I heard one on Jay Marvin this am, and his resolve

was totally unaffected by this. There is ONLY ONE WAY TO GOD and everybody else is f***ed. Haggard did the right thing by confessing his mistake. Onward to a one party dictatorship for Jesus.

[mhatrw]

32. It will depress turnout and cause many who do vote to split their ticket

with both Dems and third party candidates.

Don't fool yourself. This is BIG.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

33. One teaspoon's worth.

Take:

1 teaspoon Haggard
2 dollops Foley
1 cup DeLay
1 oz. Hastert
1 gallon Abramoff
2 liters Ney
3 heaping tablespoons Cunningham
Dash of Libby
Season generously with Lay and Skilling

Grill over hot flames for six years.

Serve to voters on Nov. 7

[Elidor]

34. Evangelicals have bigger worries than this

This incident will have a relatively small impact, but there are growing numbers of evangelicals who are feeling used. Lately the fundies have seen how contemptuously the GOP regards their concerns, and I think that that is ultimately much more demoralizing to them than a "black sheep" leading a church. But it's all of a piece: they put their trust in alleged men of god and they got burned. It's not likely to drive them into the arms of the Democratic party, but perhaps some of them might actually look beyond pious words in the future and try to formulate their own opinions, rather than letting people like Haggard tell them how to vote.